Baniyas SC 2-3 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baniyas SC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 19 as Baniyas SC welcome Sharjah FC to Baniyas Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 10 May 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Baniyas SC have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baniyas SC's home record at Baniyas Stadium: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Baniyas SC are significantly better at Baniyas Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sharjah FC stand at 1W 7D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Sharjah FC have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Baniyas SC) versus 1.00 (Sharjah FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Baniyas SC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sharjah FC in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Sharjah FC have the better historical record — 5 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Baniyas SC.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 0–5 with Sharjah FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sharjah FC have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Baniyas SC in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sharjah FC in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baniyas SC 59% versus Sharjah FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baniyas SC 63% | Sharjah FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baniyas SC 1.55 xG and Sharjah FC 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baniyas SC attack 0.998 / defence 0.985 | Sharjah FC attack 0.903 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.559 / away 1.666. Data: 46 Baniyas SC games / 47 Sharjah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baniyas SC 39% | Draw 24% | Sharjah FC 36%. Fair-value odds: Baniyas SC 2.56 | Draw 4.17 | Sharjah FC 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Baniyas SC at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baniyas SC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Baniyas SC 60% | Sharjah FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Baniyas Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baniyas SC 39% | Draw 24% | Sharjah FC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Baniyas SC 1.55 / Sharjah FC 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Baniyas SC attack 0.998 / def 0.985 | Sharjah FC attack 0.903 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.559 / away 1.666 • Poisson stance: Baniyas SC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Baniyas SC xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Sharjah FC xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC kick off?
Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 10 May 2024 at Baniyas Stadium.
What was the final score in Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC?
Baniyas SC 2 - 3 Sharjah FC.
Where is Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC being played?
The match is being played at Baniyas Stadium.
What competition is Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC part of?
Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC?
Our statistical model gives Baniyas SC a 39% chance of winning, Sharjah FC a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Baniyas SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC?
Record (5 meetings): Baniyas SC 0W | Draws 0 | Sharjah FC 5W.
What form are Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC in?
Baniyas SC (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Sharjah FC (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Baniyas SC's attack rating (1.00) and Sharjah FC's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sharjah FC's attack versus Baniyas SC's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Baniyas SC Win
39%
2.54
24%
4.14
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Baniyas SC xG
Total xG
3.03
1.48
Sharjah FC xG
2.54
39%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
9%
11.19
8%
12.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.1 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Baniyas SC and 1.48 for Sharjah FC, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Baniyas SC come into this having played 46 games, going 13W 7D 26L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Baniyas SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sharjah FC sit at 1.54 PPG from 46 outings (18W 17D 11L), a run that reads D-D-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sharjah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Baniyas SC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Baniyas SC's home form reads 6W 4D 12L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Sharjah FC have taken 1.68 points per game from 22 outings (10W 7D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sharjah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Baniyas SC are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Sharjah FC are on 1.78 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baniyas SC
Blended
Sharjah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC in coming into this match?
Baniyas SC have gone 13W 7D 26L in their last 46 games (1.00 PPG), while Sharjah FC have gone 18W 17D 11L in their last 46 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baniyas SC at home or Sharjah FC away?
Sharjah FC's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baniyas SC at home: 1.00 PPG; Sharjah FC away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Baniyas SC or Sharjah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baniyas SC have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Sharjah FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Oct 2023, when Sharjah FC won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baniyas SC's record when hosting Sharjah FC specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Baniyas SC
1
Draws
7
Sharjah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Baniyas SC have won 2, Sharjah FC have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Baniyas SC 1-1 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baniyas SC 59%, Sharjah FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Baniyas SC) and 41% (Sharjah FC).
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC in 32%; Baniyas SC have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baniyas SC home games / Sharjah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baniyas SC play Sharjah FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Baniyas SC's recent matches and 50% of Sharjah FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Baniyas SC's recent games and 41% of Sharjah FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC tend to score early?
Baniyas SC have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Sharjah FC in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sharjah FC defy the odds to beat Baniyas SC 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Baniyas SC 2-3 at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 1.55 xG and Sharjah FC 1.48 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Sharjah FC outscored their 1.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 1.00 / defence 0.98 against Sharjah FC attack 0.90 / defence 0.99, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 39% | Draw 24% | Sharjah FC 36%, with Baniyas SC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Sharjah FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baniyas SC 63%, Sharjah FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baniyas SC's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Sharjah FC's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.