Baniyas SC 1-0 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baniyas SC at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Baniyas SC face Khorfakkan.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Baniyas SC host Khorfakkan at Baniyas Stadium in Pro League (matchday 7). Kick-off is Saturday 4 November 2023 at 12:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Baniyas SC — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Baniyas SC's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Khorfakkan stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Khorfakkan away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Baniyas SC 0.90 PPG, Khorfakkan 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Baniyas SC's games and 70% of Khorfakkan's (from Baniyas SC's last 10 home games and Khorfakkan's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Baniyas SC have won 2, Khorfakkan 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 27 Jan 2023, ended Baniyas SC 2–1 Khorfakkan — a Baniyas SC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Baniyas SC in-play tendencies (last 32 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Khorfakkan in-play tendencies (last 32 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 62%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baniyas SC 59% versus Khorfakkan 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baniyas SC 66% | Khorfakkan 62%). Note also that Khorfakkan surrender HT leads in 62% of cases while Baniyas SC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baniyas SC 1.95 xG and Khorfakkan 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baniyas SC attack 1.000 / defence 0.856 | Khorfakkan attack 0.865 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 1.708 / away 1.808. Data: built from Baniyas SC's last 32 games and Khorfakkan's last 32.
Result probabilities: Baniyas SC 50% | Draw 25% | Khorfakkan 25%. Fair-value odds: Baniyas SC 1.99 | Draw 4.02 | Khorfakkan 4.01. Baniyas SC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.95 / 1.34) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Baniyas SC at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baniyas SC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.28 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Baniyas SC's last 10 home games and Khorfakkan's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Baniyas SC 60% (last 10 home games) | Khorfakkan 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baniyas SC vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, matchday 7 | Venue: Baniyas Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 12:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baniyas SC 50% | Draw 25% | Khorfakkan 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Baniyas SC 1.95 / Khorfakkan 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Baniyas SC attack 1.000 / def 0.856 | Khorfakkan attack 0.865 / def 1.139 | league avg home 1.708 / away 1.808 • Poisson stance: Baniyas SC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Baniyas SC xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Khorfakkan xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Baniyas SC vs Khorfakkan FAQs
What time does Baniyas SC vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Baniyas SC vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 12:45 UK time on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Baniyas Stadium.
What was the final score in Baniyas SC vs Khorfakkan?
Baniyas SC 1 - 0 Khorfakkan.
Where is Baniyas SC vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Baniyas Stadium.
What competition is Baniyas SC vs Khorfakkan part of?
Baniyas SC vs Khorfakkan is a Pro League fixture (matchday 7) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Baniyas SC vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Baniyas SC a 50% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Baniyas SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baniyas SC vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Baniyas SC and Khorfakkan will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Baniyas SC vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Baniyas SC's attack rating (1.00) and Khorfakkan's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Khorfakkan's attack versus Baniyas SC's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Baniyas SC's last 32 games and Khorfakkan's last 32 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Baniyas SC Win
50%
1.99
25%
4.02
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Baniyas SC xG
Total xG
3.28
1.34
Khorfakkan xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
14%
6.99
Win to Nil
13%
7.60
4%
28.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Baniyas SC vs Khorfakkan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Baniyas SC vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Baniyas SC and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Baniyas SC and 1.34 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Baniyas SC vs Khorfakkan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Baniyas SC's recent record stands at 8W 7D 17L from 32 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five.
Khorfakkan, meanwhile, have gone 8W 8D 16L across 32 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Baniyas SC on 0.97 PPG, Khorfakkan on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Baniyas SC have managed 3W 4D 8L from their last 15 home games — 0.87 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Khorfakkan's away record stands at 1W 5D 9L across their last 15 away games, a 0.53 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Khorfakkan's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
Baniyas SC are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.22 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 32 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baniyas SC
Early Season
Khorfakkan
Early Season
Baniyas SC (Home) vs Khorfakkan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Baniyas SC
Early Season
Khorfakkan
Early Season
❓ Baniyas SC vs Khorfakkan Form FAQs
What form are Baniyas SC and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Baniyas SC have gone 8W 7D 17L in their last 32 games (0.97 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 8W 8D 16L in their last 32 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baniyas SC at home or Khorfakkan away?
Baniyas SC's home record (0.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baniyas SC at home: 0.87 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 0.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from April 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 11 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Jan 2025, when Khorfakkan won Khorfakkan 5-2 Baniyas SC.
Baniyas SC's record when hosting Khorfakkan specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Baniyas SC
2
Draws
5
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Baniyas SC vs Khorfakkan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Khorfakkan?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Baniyas SC have won 3, Khorfakkan have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Baniyas SC and Khorfakkan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 September 2026: Khorfakkan 0-0 Baniyas SC.
Who has won more matches between Baniyas SC and Khorfakkan?
Khorfakkan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 75% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baniyas SC 60%, Khorfakkan 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Baniyas SC and 60% for Khorfakkan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Baniyas SC have failed to score in 33% of games; Khorfakkan in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baniyas SC home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Baniyas SC vs Khorfakkan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Baniyas SC and Khorfakkan matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Baniyas SC's games and 60% of Khorfakkan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Baniyas SC and Khorfakkan matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Baniyas SC's matches and 60% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Baniyas SC and Khorfakkan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Baniyas SC's recent matches and 73% of Khorfakkan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Baniyas SC edge out Khorfakkan 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baniyas SC beat Khorfakkan 1-0 at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 1.95 xG and Khorfakkan 1.34 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Baniyas SC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Khorfakkan landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 1.00 / defence 0.86 against Khorfakkan attack 0.86 / defence 1.14, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 50% | Draw 25% | Khorfakkan 25%, with Baniyas SC to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baniyas SC 66%, Khorfakkan 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baniyas SC's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Baniyas SC 0.97 PPG, Khorfakkan 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Baniyas SC win broke the near-deadlock. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.