Baniyas SC 0-1 Al-Wasl FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Wasl FC at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Baniyas SC vs Al-Wasl FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Al-Wasl FC travel to Baniyas Stadium to take on Baniyas SC. The game is scheduled for Friday 20 August 2021, 18:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baniyas SC 0.82 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baniyas SC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Al-Wasl FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.842 / away 1.575. Data: 0 Baniyas SC games / 0 Al-Wasl FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Baniyas SC 20% | Draw 26% | Al-Wasl FC 54%. Fair-value odds: Baniyas SC 5.00 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Wasl FC 1.85. Al-Wasl FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Wasl FC are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Wasl FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baniyas SC vs Al-Wasl FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Baniyas Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 20 Aug 2021, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baniyas SC 20% | Draw 26% | Al-Wasl FC 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 44% | xG Baniyas SC 0.82 / Al-Wasl FC 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Baniyas SC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Al-Wasl FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.842 / away 1.575 • Poisson stance: Al-Wasl FC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Baniyas SC xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Al-Wasl FC xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baniyas SC vs Al-Wasl FC kick off?
Baniyas SC vs Al-Wasl FC kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 20 August 2021 at Baniyas Stadium.
What was the final score in Baniyas SC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Baniyas SC 0 - 1 Al-Wasl FC.
Where is Baniyas SC vs Al-Wasl FC being played?
The match is being played at Baniyas Stadium.
What competition is Baniyas SC vs Al-Wasl FC part of?
Baniyas SC vs Al-Wasl FC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Baniyas SC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our statistical model gives Baniyas SC a 20% chance of winning, Al-Wasl FC a 54% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Wasl FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baniyas SC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Baniyas SC and Al-Wasl FC will score (BTTS).
Will Baniyas SC vs Al-Wasl FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Al-Wasl FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Baniyas SC and Al-Wasl FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Baniyas SC's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Al-Wasl FC's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.82. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Wasl FC's attack versus Baniyas SC's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.0%), 0-2 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Wasl FC Win
20%
4.99
26%
3.89
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Baniyas SC xG
Total xG
2.36
1.54
Al-Wasl FC xG
4.99
20%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
4%
23.23
24%
4.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 14.5 | 11.2 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.9 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baniyas SC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Baniyas SC and Al-Wasl FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Baniyas SC and 1.54 for Al-Wasl FC, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Baniyas SC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baniyas SC
Pre-Season
Al-Wasl FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Apr 2023, when Al-Wasl FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baniyas SC's record when hosting Al-Wasl FC specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Baniyas SC
2
Draws
7
Al-Wasl FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Al-Wasl FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Baniyas SC have won 1, Al-Wasl FC have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Baniyas SC and Al-Wasl FC last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Baniyas SC 2-0 Al-Wasl FC.
Who has won more matches between Baniyas SC and Al-Wasl FC?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baniyas SC home games / Al-Wasl FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Wasl FC edge out Baniyas SC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Wasl FC beat Baniyas SC 0-1 at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 0.82 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.54 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Baniyas SC fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Al-Wasl FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 20% | Draw 26% | Al-Wasl FC 54%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.