Baniyas SC 1-0 Al Wahda FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Wahda FC at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baniyas SC vs Al Wahda FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Baniyas SC and Al Wahda FC meet at Baniyas Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 12 March 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Baniyas SC's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Baniyas Stadium, Baniyas SC have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Baniyas Stadium this season.
Al Wahda FC have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wahda FC's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Al Wahda FC, who have claimed 5 wins from 8 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Jan 2026, ended 0–3 with Al Wahda FC winning.
It is worth noting that Al Wahda FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Baniyas SC — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
Al Wahda FC — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baniyas SC 46% versus Al Wahda FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baniyas SC 57% | Al Wahda FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baniyas SC 1.08 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baniyas SC attack 0.947 / defence 1.137 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.011 / defence 0.818. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.401. Data: 44 Baniyas SC games / 44 Al Wahda FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baniyas SC 25% | Draw 25% | Al Wahda FC 49%. Fair-value odds: Baniyas SC 4.00 | Draw 4.00 | Al Wahda FC 2.04. Al Wahda FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Wahda FC are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Baniyas SC 50% | Al Wahda FC 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baniyas SC vs Al Wahda FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Baniyas Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 12 Mar 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baniyas SC 25% | Draw 25% | Al Wahda FC 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Baniyas SC 1.08 / Al Wahda FC 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Baniyas SC attack 0.947 / def 1.137 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.011 / def 0.818 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.401 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Baniyas SC xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Al Wahda FC xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baniyas SC vs Al Wahda FC kick off?
Baniyas SC vs Al Wahda FC kicked off at 17:30 on Thursday 12 March 2026 at Baniyas Stadium.
What was the final score in Baniyas SC vs Al Wahda FC?
Baniyas SC 1 - 0 Al Wahda FC.
Where is Baniyas SC vs Al Wahda FC being played?
The match is being played at Baniyas Stadium.
What competition is Baniyas SC vs Al Wahda FC part of?
Baniyas SC vs Al Wahda FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Baniyas SC vs Al Wahda FC?
Our statistical model gives Baniyas SC a 25% chance of winning, Al Wahda FC a 49% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baniyas SC vs Al Wahda FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Baniyas SC and Al Wahda FC will score (BTTS).
Will Baniyas SC vs Al Wahda FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Al Wahda FC?
Record (8 meetings): Baniyas SC 1W | Draws 2 | Al Wahda FC 5W.
What form are Baniyas SC and Al Wahda FC in?
Baniyas SC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Al Wahda FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Baniyas SC's attack at 0.95x the league average against Al Wahda FC's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Wahda FC's attack (1.01x) against Baniyas SC's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
25%
3.97
25%
3.93
49%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Baniyas SC xG
Total xG
2.69
1.61
Al Wahda FC xG
3.97
25%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.02
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
20%
5.00
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
5%
19.88
17%
5.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 10.9 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baniyas SC vs Al Wahda FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Baniyas SC and Al Wahda FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Baniyas SC and 1.61 for Al Wahda FC, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Baniyas SC vs Al Wahda FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Baniyas SC's recent record stands at 12W 8D 24L from 44 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Baniyas SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Wahda FC, meanwhile, have gone 22W 16D 6L across 44 games — 1.86 PPG, with W-D-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Wahda FC by 0.86 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Baniyas SC heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Baniyas SC have managed 3W 7D 11L from 21 games — 0.76 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Wahda FC's away record stands at 9W 8D 4L across 21 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wahda FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Baniyas SC are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Al Wahda FC are on 1.82 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Al Wahda FC in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baniyas SC
Blended
Al Wahda FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baniyas SC and Al Wahda FC in coming into this match?
Baniyas SC have gone 12W 8D 24L in their last 44 games (1.00 PPG), while Al Wahda FC have gone 22W 16D 6L in their last 44 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baniyas SC at home or Al Wahda FC away?
Al Wahda FC's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baniyas SC at home: 0.76 PPG; Al Wahda FC away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Baniyas SC or Al Wahda FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baniyas SC have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Al Wahda FC in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Wahda FC won 0-3 on 23 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Baniyas SC have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Wahda FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Baniyas SC
2
Draws
6
Al Wahda FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Al Wahda FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Baniyas SC have won 2, Al Wahda FC have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Baniyas SC and Al Wahda FC last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Al Wahda FC 2-1 Baniyas SC.
Who has won more matches between Baniyas SC and Al Wahda FC?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baniyas SC 57%, Al Wahda FC 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Baniyas SC) and 38% (Al Wahda FC).
On the defensive side: Al Wahda FC in 43%; Baniyas SC have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baniyas SC home games / Al Wahda FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baniyas SC play Al Wahda FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Baniyas SC's recent matches and 48% of Al Wahda FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baniyas SC vs Al Wahda FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Baniyas SC's recent games and 38% of Al Wahda FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baniyas SC and Al Wahda FC tend to score early?
Baniyas SC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al Wahda FC in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Baniyas SC defy the odds to beat Al Wahda FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baniyas SC beat Al Wahda FC 1-0 at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 1.08 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.61 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Wahda FC landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 0.95 / defence 1.14 against Al Wahda FC attack 1.01 / defence 0.82, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 25% | Draw 25% | Al Wahda FC 49%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Baniyas SC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baniyas SC 57%, Al Wahda FC 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baniyas SC's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Baniyas SC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.