Baniyas SC 1-1 Al Bataeh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Bataeh at 61% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 13 as Baniyas SC welcome Al Bataeh to Baniyas Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 January 2026 at 13:05 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Baniyas SC have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baniyas SC at Baniyas Stadium this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 home games — 0.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
Al Bataeh — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Bataeh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Bataeh have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Baniyas SC at 0.70 PPG versus Al Bataeh's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Al Bataeh have the better historical record — 3 wins from 6 previous contests against 0 for Baniyas SC.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2025, ended 0–1 with Al Bataeh winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al Bataeh have won 3 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Baniyas SC in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 45% of games.
Al Bataeh in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baniyas SC 45% versus Al Bataeh 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baniyas SC 60% | Al Bataeh 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baniyas SC 0.92 xG and Al Bataeh 1.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baniyas SC attack 0.792 / defence 1.399 | Al Bataeh attack 1.015 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.368. Baniyas SC's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 38 Baniyas SC games / 38 Al Bataeh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baniyas SC 17% | Draw 22% | Al Bataeh 61%. Fair-value odds: Baniyas SC 5.88 | Draw 4.55 | Al Bataeh 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Al Bataeh (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Bataeh as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Baniyas SC 50% | Al Bataeh 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Baniyas Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jan 2026, 13:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baniyas SC 17% | Draw 22% | Al Bataeh 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 52% | xG Baniyas SC 0.92 / Al Bataeh 1.94 • Poisson strength factors: Baniyas SC attack 0.792 / def 1.399 | Al Bataeh attack 1.015 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.368 • Poisson stance: Al Bataeh (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Baniyas SC xG
Expected Goals
1.94
Al Bataeh xG
52%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh kick off?
Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh kicked off at 13:05 on Sunday 18 January 2026 at Baniyas Stadium.
What was the final score in Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh?
Baniyas SC 1 - 1 Al Bataeh.
Where is Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh being played?
The match is being played at Baniyas Stadium.
What competition is Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh part of?
Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh?
Our statistical model gives Baniyas SC a 17% chance of winning, Al Bataeh a 61% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al Bataeh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh will score (BTTS).
Will Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh?
Record (6 meetings): Baniyas SC 0W | Draws 3 | Al Bataeh 3W.
What form are Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh in?
Baniyas SC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Al Bataeh (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Baniyas SC's attack at 0.79x the league average against Al Bataeh's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Bataeh's attack versus Baniyas SC's defence, projects 1.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.7%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Bataeh Win
17%
5.77
22%
4.65
61%
1.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
10.7%
Away win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Baniyas SC xG
Total xG
2.87
1.94
Al Bataeh xG
5.77
17%
Home win
4.65
22%
Draw
1.64
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
14%
6.97
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
2%
40.23
24%
4.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 11.1 | 10.7 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Baniyas SC and 1.94 for Al Bataeh, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Baniyas SC have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 9W 7D 22L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Baniyas SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Bataeh's form line: 10W 6D 22L from 38 games, 0.95 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W. The sample for Al Bataeh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Baniyas SC on 0.89 PPG, Al Bataeh on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Baniyas SC have posted 0.79 PPG from 19 outings (3W 6D 10L).
On the road, Al Bataeh have gone 7W 2D 10L from 19 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Bataeh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Baniyas SC are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 2.03 conceded per game recently; Al Bataeh are on 1.11 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baniyas SC
Blended
Al Bataeh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh in coming into this match?
Baniyas SC have gone 9W 7D 22L in their last 38 games (0.89 PPG), while Al Bataeh have gone 10W 6D 22L in their last 38 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baniyas SC at home or Al Bataeh away?
Al Bataeh's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baniyas SC at home: 0.79 PPG; Al Bataeh away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Baniyas SC's record when hosting Al Bataeh specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Baniyas SC
4
Draws
3
Al Bataeh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh?
From 8 meetings on record, Baniyas SC have won 1, Al Bataeh have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Al Bataeh 0-1 Baniyas SC.
Who has won more matches between Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh?
Al Bataeh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baniyas SC 53%, Al Bataeh 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Baniyas SC and 53% for Al Bataeh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Baniyas SC have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baniyas SC home games / Al Bataeh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baniyas SC play Al Bataeh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Baniyas SC's games and 58% of Al Bataeh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Baniyas SC's matches and 53% of Al Bataeh's.
Do Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh tend to score early?
Baniyas SC have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Al Bataeh in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 13, as Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 0.92 xG and Al Bataeh 1.94 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al Bataeh landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 0.79 / defence 1.40 against Al Bataeh attack 1.01 / defence 0.92, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 17% | Draw 22% | Al Bataeh 61%, with Al Bataeh to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baniyas SC 60%, Al Bataeh 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baniyas SC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Al Bataeh's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Baniyas SC 0.89 PPG, Al Bataeh 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.