Al-Wasl FC 1-0 Al-Dhafra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Wasl FC at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Dhafra fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Wasl FC host Al-Dhafra at Zabeel Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 11 May 2022 at 17:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Wasl FC — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Wasl FC's home record at Zabeel Stadium: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Zabeel Stadium.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Dhafra have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Dhafra's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Wasl FC 1.20 PPG, Al-Dhafra 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al-Wasl FC, 0 for Al-Dhafra and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Wasl FC in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Al-Dhafra in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Wasl FC 50% versus Al-Dhafra 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Wasl FC 41% | Al-Dhafra 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Wasl FC 1.53 xG and Al-Dhafra 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Wasl FC attack 0.917 / defence 0.870 | Al-Dhafra attack 0.787 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 1.303 / away 1.251. Al-Dhafra bring a strong defensive rating of 1.281 — this is suppressing Al-Wasl FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Al-Wasl FC games / 22 Al-Dhafra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 53% | Draw 26% | Al-Dhafra 21%. Fair-value odds: Al-Wasl FC 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Dhafra 4.76. Al-Wasl FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Wasl FC are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Wasl FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Wasl FC 40% | Al-Dhafra 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Dhafra | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Zabeel Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 May 2022, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 53% | Draw 26% | Al-Dhafra 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 45% | xG Al-Wasl FC 1.53 / Al-Dhafra 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Wasl FC attack 0.917 / def 0.870 | Al-Dhafra attack 0.787 / def 1.281 | league avg home 1.303 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Al-Wasl FC (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Al-Wasl FC xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Al-Dhafra xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Dhafra kick off?
Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Dhafra kicked off at 17:45 on Wednesday 11 May 2022 at Zabeel Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Dhafra?
Al-Wasl FC 1 - 0 Al-Dhafra.
Where is Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Dhafra being played?
The match is being played at Zabeel Stadium.
What competition is Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Dhafra part of?
Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Dhafra is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Dhafra?
Our statistical model gives Al-Wasl FC a 53% chance of winning, Al-Dhafra a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Wasl FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Dhafra?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al-Wasl FC and Al-Dhafra will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Dhafra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Al-Dhafra?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Wasl FC 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Dhafra 0W.
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Al-Dhafra in?
Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Al-Dhafra (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Wasl FC's attack at 0.92x the league average against Al-Dhafra's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Dhafra's attack versus Al-Wasl FC's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Wasl FC Win
53%
1.88
26%
3.88
21%
4.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Al-Wasl FC xG
Total xG
2.39
0.86
Al-Dhafra xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
4.75
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
23%
4.43
5%
21.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.0 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Dhafra?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Al-Wasl FC and Al-Dhafra expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Al-Wasl FC and 0.86 for Al-Dhafra, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Dhafra?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Wasl FC come into this having played 22 games, going 7W 8D 7L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L. The sample for Al-Wasl FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Dhafra sit at 0.73 PPG from 22 outings (3W 7D 12L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Dhafra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Wasl FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Al-Dhafra — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Wasl FC's home form reads 3W 5D 2L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Dhafra have taken 0.60 points per game from 10 outings (1W 3D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Wasl FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Wasl FC are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Al-Dhafra are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Wasl FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
Al-Dhafra
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Al-Dhafra in coming into this match?
Al-Wasl FC have gone 7W 8D 7L in their last 22 games (1.32 PPG), while Al-Dhafra have gone 3W 7D 12L in their last 22 (0.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Wasl FC at home or Al-Dhafra away?
Al-Wasl FC's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Wasl FC at home: 1.40 PPG; Al-Dhafra away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Al-Wasl FC or Al-Dhafra been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Wasl FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Al-Dhafra in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Wasl FC and Al-Dhafra runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 18 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2022, when Al-Wasl FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Wasl FC's record when hosting Al-Dhafra specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Al-Wasl FC
1
Draws
1
Al-Dhafra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Al-Dhafra?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Wasl FC have won 4, Al-Dhafra have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Wasl FC and Al-Dhafra last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2026, when Al-Wasl FC 3-0 Al-Dhafra.
Who has won more matches between Al-Wasl FC and Al-Dhafra?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Al-Dhafra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Wasl FC 40%, Al-Dhafra 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Al-Wasl FC and 40% for Al-Dhafra.
On the defensive side: Al-Wasl FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Al-Wasl FC have failed to score in 30% of games; Al-Dhafra in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Wasl FC home games / Al-Dhafra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Wasl FC play Al-Dhafra?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Al-Wasl FC's recent matches and 50% of Al-Dhafra's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Dhafra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Al-Wasl FC's recent games and 40% of Al-Dhafra's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Wasl FC and Al-Dhafra tend to score early?
Al-Wasl FC have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Al-Dhafra in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Wasl FC edge out Al-Dhafra 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Wasl FC beat Al-Dhafra 1-0 at Zabeel Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Wasl FC 1.53 xG and Al-Dhafra 0.86 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Dhafra landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Wasl FC attack 0.92 / defence 0.87 against Al-Dhafra attack 0.79 / defence 1.28, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Wasl FC 53% | Draw 26% | Al-Dhafra 21%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Wasl FC 41%, Al-Dhafra 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Wasl FC arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.73. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.