Al Wahda FC 1-1 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Wahda FC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Wahda FC vs Sharjah FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Sharjah FC travel to Al Nahyan Stadium to take on Al Wahda FC. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 13 February 2024, 13:25 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Wahda FC have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wahda FC's home record at Al Nahyan Stadium: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sharjah FC — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sharjah FC away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Wahda FC 1.70 PPG, Sharjah FC 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Wahda FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Sharjah FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Al Wahda FC have won 2, Sharjah FC 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 31 Mar 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Al Wahda FC trading profile (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Sharjah FC trading profile (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wahda FC 58% versus Sharjah FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wahda FC 58% | Sharjah FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wahda FC 1.82 xG and Sharjah FC 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wahda FC attack 1.083 / defence 0.899 | Sharjah FC attack 1.160 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.670 / away 1.739. Data: 38 Al Wahda FC games / 38 Sharjah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 37% | Draw 25% | Sharjah FC 37%. Fair-value odds: Al Wahda FC 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | Sharjah FC 2.70. The draw (25%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.81) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 25% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 3.63 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Wahda FC 70% | Sharjah FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wahda FC vs Sharjah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Al Nahyan Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 Feb 2024, 13:25 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 37% | Draw 25% | Sharjah FC 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 72% | xG Al Wahda FC 1.82 / Sharjah FC 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wahda FC attack 1.083 / def 0.899 | Sharjah FC attack 1.160 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.670 / away 1.739 • Poisson stance: Draw (25%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Al Wahda FC xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Sharjah FC xG
72%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wahda FC vs Sharjah FC kick off?
Al Wahda FC vs Sharjah FC kicked off at 13:25 on Tuesday 13 February 2024 at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wahda FC vs Sharjah FC?
Al Wahda FC 1 - 1 Sharjah FC.
Where is Al Wahda FC vs Sharjah FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What competition is Al Wahda FC vs Sharjah FC part of?
Al Wahda FC vs Sharjah FC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Wahda FC vs Sharjah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Wahda FC a 37% chance of winning, Sharjah FC a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Al Wahda FC vs Sharjah FC?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Al Wahda FC and Sharjah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wahda FC vs Sharjah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Sharjah FC?
Record (4 meetings): Al Wahda FC 2W | Draws 1 | Sharjah FC 1W.
What form are Al Wahda FC and Sharjah FC in?
Al Wahda FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Sharjah FC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Wahda FC's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Sharjah FC's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. The same calculation in reverse, Sharjah FC's attack versus Al Wahda FC's defence, projects 1.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.9%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
37%
2.67
25%
3.96
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Al Wahda FC xG
Total xG
3.63
1.81
Sharjah FC xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.54
Clean Sheet
16%
6.13
16%
6.15
Win to Nil
6%
16.39
6%
16.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 8.7 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wahda FC vs Sharjah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Al Wahda FC and Sharjah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Al Wahda FC and 1.81 for Sharjah FC, a combined total of 3.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wahda FC vs Sharjah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Al Wahda FC have picked up 1.89 PPG on a 21W 9D 8L record — W-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sharjah FC's form line: 18W 11D 9L from 38 games, 1.71 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-D. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Wahda FC on 1.89 PPG, Sharjah FC on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al Wahda FC have posted 1.67 PPG from 18 outings (8W 6D 4L).
On the road, Sharjah FC have gone 10W 5D 3L from 18 away games — 1.94 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Wahda FC are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Sharjah FC are on 1.89 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Sharjah FC in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wahda FC
Blended
Sharjah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wahda FC and Sharjah FC in coming into this match?
Al Wahda FC have gone 21W 9D 8L in their last 38 games (1.89 PPG), while Sharjah FC have gone 18W 11D 9L in their last 38 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wahda FC at home or Sharjah FC away?
Sharjah FC's away record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wahda FC at home: 1.67 PPG; Sharjah FC away: 1.94 PPG.
Have Al Wahda FC or Sharjah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Sharjah FC in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2021, when Al Wahda FC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Wahda FC's record when hosting Sharjah FC specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al Wahda FC
3
Draws
3
Sharjah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Sharjah FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Wahda FC have won 4, Sharjah FC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Wahda FC and Sharjah FC last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when Sharjah FC 0-2 Al Wahda FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Wahda FC and Sharjah FC?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Wahda FC 61%, Sharjah FC 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Al Wahda FC) and 44% (Sharjah FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wahda FC home games / Sharjah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wahda FC play Sharjah FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Al Wahda FC's recent matches and 44% of Sharjah FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Wahda FC vs Sharjah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al Wahda FC's matches and 44% of Sharjah FC's.
Do Al Wahda FC and Sharjah FC tend to score early?
Al Wahda FC have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Sharjah FC in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Wahda FC and Sharjah FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wahda FC and Sharjah FC finished level at 1-1 at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 1.82 xG and Sharjah FC 1.81 xG, a combined 3.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al Wahda FC fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Sharjah FC landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 1.08 / defence 0.90 against Sharjah FC attack 1.16 / defence 1.00, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 37% | Draw 25% | Sharjah FC 37%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 37%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 58%, Sharjah FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Sharjah FC's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Wahda FC 1.89 PPG, Sharjah FC 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.