Al Wahda FC 3-1 Baniyas SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Wahda FC at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Wahda FC vs Baniyas SC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Nahyan Stadium plays host to Al Wahda FC versus Baniyas SC in Pro League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Wahda FC have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wahda FC's home record at Al Nahyan Stadium: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Baniyas SC (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Baniyas SC have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Al Wahda FC's favour (1.90 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al Wahda FC have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, Baniyas SC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Al Wahda FC 2W, Baniyas SC 1W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2023, ended 1–2 with Baniyas SC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Al Wahda FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Baniyas SC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wahda FC 60% versus Baniyas SC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wahda FC 60% | Baniyas SC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wahda FC 2.08 xG and Baniyas SC 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wahda FC attack 1.266 / defence 1.025 | Baniyas SC attack 0.827 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.563 / away 1.696. Al Wahda FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.266 — their λ of 2.08 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 43 Al Wahda FC games / 42 Baniyas SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 52% | Draw 22% | Baniyas SC 26%. Fair-value odds: Al Wahda FC 1.92 | Draw 4.55 | Baniyas SC 3.85. Al Wahda FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Wahda FC as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.51 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Wahda FC 90% | Baniyas SC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wahda FC vs Baniyas SC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Al Nahyan Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 52% | Draw 22% | Baniyas SC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 67% | xG Al Wahda FC 2.08 / Baniyas SC 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wahda FC attack 1.266 / def 1.025 | Baniyas SC attack 0.827 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.563 / away 1.696 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Al Wahda FC xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Baniyas SC xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wahda FC vs Baniyas SC kick off?
Al Wahda FC vs Baniyas SC kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wahda FC vs Baniyas SC?
Al Wahda FC 3 - 1 Baniyas SC.
Where is Al Wahda FC vs Baniyas SC being played?
The match is being played at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What competition is Al Wahda FC vs Baniyas SC part of?
Al Wahda FC vs Baniyas SC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Wahda FC vs Baniyas SC?
Our statistical model gives Al Wahda FC a 52% chance of winning, Baniyas SC a 26% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wahda FC vs Baniyas SC?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Al Wahda FC and Baniyas SC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wahda FC vs Baniyas SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Baniyas SC?
Record (5 meetings): Al Wahda FC 2W | Draws 2 | Baniyas SC 1W.
What form are Al Wahda FC and Baniyas SC in?
Al Wahda FC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Baniyas SC (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al Wahda FC's attack rating (1.27) and Baniyas SC's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 2.08 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Baniyas SC's attack (0.83x) against Al Wahda FC's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 2-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
52%
1.92
22%
4.61
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 2
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Al Wahda FC xG
Total xG
3.51
1.44
Baniyas SC xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
13%
7.98
Win to Nil
12%
8.09
3%
30.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wahda FC vs Baniyas SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Al Wahda FC and Baniyas SC expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Al Wahda FC and 1.44 for Baniyas SC, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wahda FC vs Baniyas SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 42 outings, Al Wahda FC have picked up 1.95 PPG on a 24W 10D 8L record — D-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baniyas SC's form line: 12W 7D 23L from 42 games, 1.02 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W. The sample for Baniyas SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Wahda FC are the form team by 0.93 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Baniyas SC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al Wahda FC have posted 1.75 PPG from 20 outings (9W 8D 3L).
On the road, Baniyas SC have gone 6W 3D 11L from 20 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wahda FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Wahda FC are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Baniyas SC are on 1.26 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wahda FC
Blended
Baniyas SC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wahda FC and Baniyas SC in coming into this match?
Al Wahda FC have gone 24W 10D 8L in their last 42 games (1.95 PPG), while Baniyas SC have gone 12W 7D 23L in their last 42 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wahda FC at home or Baniyas SC away?
Al Wahda FC's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wahda FC at home: 1.75 PPG; Baniyas SC away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Al Wahda FC or Baniyas SC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Baniyas SC in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 12 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Wahda FC won 0-3 on 23 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Wahda FC have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Baniyas SC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al Wahda FC
3
Draws
2
Baniyas SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Baniyas SC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Wahda FC have won 5, Baniyas SC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Wahda FC and Baniyas SC last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2026, when Baniyas SC 1-0 Al Wahda FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Wahda FC and Baniyas SC?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Al Wahda FC, 60% for Baniyas SC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Al Wahda FC and 70% for Baniyas SC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Baniyas SC in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wahda FC home games / Baniyas SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wahda FC play Baniyas SC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Al Wahda FC's games and 60% of Baniyas SC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Wahda FC vs Baniyas SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Al Wahda FC's matches and 70% of Baniyas SC's.
Do Al Wahda FC and Baniyas SC tend to score early?
Al Wahda FC have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Baniyas SC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Wahda FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Baniyas SC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wahda FC beat Baniyas SC 3-1 at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 2.08 xG and Baniyas SC 1.44 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al Wahda FC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 1.27 / defence 1.02 against Baniyas SC attack 0.83 / defence 1.05, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 52% | Draw 22% | Baniyas SC 26%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 60%, Baniyas SC 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Baniyas SC's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.