Al Wahda FC 2-2 Al Bataeh – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Al Wahda FC (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Wahda FC face Al Bataeh.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Wahda FC host Al Bataeh at Al Nahyan Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 5 February 2026 at 13:25 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Wahda FC stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wahda FC's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 games at Al Nahyan Stadium this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al Nahyan Stadium.
Al Bataeh — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Bataeh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Bataeh's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Al Wahda FC are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.30 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Al Wahda FC have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 7 past contests while Al Bataeh have managed just 2 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2025, ended 3–1 with Al Wahda FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al Wahda FC and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Al Wahda FC in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Al Bataeh in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wahda FC 52% versus Al Bataeh 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wahda FC 55% | Al Bataeh 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wahda FC 1.38 xG and Al Bataeh 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wahda FC attack 1.178 / defence 0.719 | Al Bataeh attack 0.954 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.332. Al Wahda FC's defence rating of 0.719 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Al Wahda FC games / 40 Al Bataeh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 48% | Draw 27% | Al Bataeh 25%. Fair-value odds: Al Wahda FC 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Al Bataeh 4.00. Al Wahda FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Wahda FC are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Al Wahda FC 50% | Al Bataeh 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Al Nahyan Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 5 Feb 2026, 13:25 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 48% | Draw 27% | Al Bataeh 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Al Wahda FC 1.38 / Al Bataeh 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wahda FC attack 1.178 / def 0.719 | Al Bataeh attack 0.954 / def 0.919 | league avg home 1.277 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Al Wahda FC xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Al Bataeh xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh kick off?
Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh kicked off at 13:25 on Thursday 5 February 2026 at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh?
Al Wahda FC 2 - 2 Al Bataeh.
Where is Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh being played?
The match is being played at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What competition is Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh part of?
Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh?
Our statistical model gives Al Wahda FC a 48% chance of winning, Al Bataeh a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh?
Record (7 meetings): Al Wahda FC 5W | Draws 0 | Al Bataeh 2W.
What form are Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh in?
Al Wahda FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Al Bataeh (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Wahda FC's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Al Bataeh's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Al Bataeh's attack versus Al Wahda FC's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
48%
2.10
27%
3.65
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Al Wahda FC xG
Total xG
2.29
0.91
Al Bataeh xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
19%
5.23
6%
16.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.7 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Al Wahda FC and 0.91 for Al Bataeh, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Wahda FC come into this having played 40 games, going 21W 14D 5L for 1.92 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-W. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Bataeh sit at 0.95 PPG from 40 outings (10W 8D 22L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Al Bataeh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Wahda FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.97 PPG clear of Al Bataeh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al Wahda FC's home form reads 12W 7D 1L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Bataeh have taken 1.20 points per game from 20 outings (7W 3D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wahda FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Wahda FC are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Al Bataeh are on 1.10 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Bataeh in 60%.
Defensively: Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wahda FC
Blended
Al Bataeh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh in coming into this match?
Al Wahda FC have gone 21W 14D 5L in their last 40 games (1.92 PPG), while Al Bataeh have gone 10W 8D 22L in their last 40 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wahda FC at home or Al Bataeh away?
Al Wahda FC's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wahda FC at home: 2.15 PPG; Al Bataeh away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Al Wahda FC or Al Bataeh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Al Bataeh in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Oct 2022, when Al Wahda FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Wahda FC's record when hosting Al Bataeh specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Al Wahda FC
1
Draws
2
Al Bataeh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Wahda FC have won 5, Al Bataeh have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2026, when Al Wahda FC 2-2 Al Bataeh.
Who has won more matches between Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Wahda FC 60%, Al Bataeh 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Al Wahda FC and 50% for Al Bataeh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Wahda FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wahda FC home games / Al Bataeh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wahda FC play Al Bataeh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Al Wahda FC's games and 60% of Al Bataeh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Al Wahda FC's matches and 50% of Al Bataeh's.
Do Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh tend to score early?
Al Wahda FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al Bataeh in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh finished level at 2-2 at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 1.38 xG and Al Bataeh 0.91 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al Bataeh outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 1.18 / defence 0.72 against Al Bataeh attack 0.95 / defence 0.92, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 48% | Draw 27% | Al Bataeh 25%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 55%, Al Bataeh 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Bataeh's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.