Al Wahda FC 3-0 Ajman – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Wahda FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Wahda FC vs Ajman fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ajman make the trip to Al Nahyan Stadium to face Al Wahda FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Sunday 21 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Al Wahda FC (all games): 4W 5D 0L across 9 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.89 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.89 goals per game, with 0.56 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.56 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 9 games (44%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wahda FC at Al Nahyan Stadium this season: 1W 2D 0L from 3 home games — 1.67 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ajman have collected 1.56 PPG across 9 Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.22 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajman away from home this season: 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.56 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.89 PPG for Al Wahda FC against 1.56 for Ajman. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Al Wahda FC — key trading statistics (9 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Ajman — key trading statistics (9 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wahda FC 56% versus Ajman 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al Wahda FC 44% | Ajman 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wahda FC 1.26 xG and Ajman 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wahda FC attack 1.097 / defence 1.035 | Ajman attack 0.707 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.028 / away 1.394. Data: 9 Al Wahda FC games / 9 Ajman games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 39% | Draw 33% | Ajman 28%. Fair-value odds: Al Wahda FC 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | Ajman 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Wahda FC at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al Wahda FC 67% | Ajman 25%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wahda FC vs Ajman | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Al Nahyan Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 39% | Draw 33% | Ajman 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Al Wahda FC 1.26 / Ajman 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wahda FC attack 1.097 / def 1.035 | Ajman attack 0.707 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.028 / away 1.394 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Al Wahda FC xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Ajman xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wahda FC vs Ajman kick off?
Al Wahda FC vs Ajman kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wahda FC vs Ajman?
Al Wahda FC 3 - 0 Ajman.
Where is Al Wahda FC vs Ajman being played?
The match is being played at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What competition is Al Wahda FC vs Ajman part of?
Al Wahda FC vs Ajman is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Wahda FC vs Ajman?
Our statistical model gives Al Wahda FC a 39% chance of winning, Ajman a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wahda FC vs Ajman?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al Wahda FC and Ajman will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wahda FC vs Ajman have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Ajman?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Wahda FC and Ajman in?
Al Wahda FC (all comps): 4W-5D-0L in 9 | 1.89 PPG | GF 1.89 / GA 0.56 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Ajman (all comps): 4W-2D-3L in 9 | 1.56 PPG | GF 1.22 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Wahda FC's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Ajman's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. Flip it around — Ajman's attack (0.71x) against Al Wahda FC's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
39%
2.53
33%
3.03
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Al Wahda FC xG
Total xG
2.28
1.02
Ajman xG
2.53
39%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
14%
7.02
8%
12.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 10.4 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.1 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wahda FC vs Ajman?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Al Wahda FC and Ajman expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Al Wahda FC and 1.02 for Ajman, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wahda FC vs Ajman?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Wahda FC's recent record stands at 4W 5D 0L from 9 games, a 1.89 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajman, meanwhile, have gone 4W 2D 3L across 9 games — 1.56 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.89 PPG for Al Wahda FC against 1.56 for Ajman. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al Wahda FC have managed 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ajman's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across 3 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Wahda FC are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 0.56 conceded per game recently; Ajman are on 1.22 scored and 1.00 conceded. Al Wahda FC's scoring rate against Ajman's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wahda FC
Blended
Ajman
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wahda FC and Ajman in coming into this match?
Al Wahda FC have gone 4W 5D 0L in their last 9 games (1.89 PPG), while Ajman have gone 4W 2D 3L in their last 9 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wahda FC at home or Ajman away?
Al Wahda FC's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wahda FC at home: 1.67 PPG; Ajman away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Al Wahda FC or Ajman been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Ajman in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 25 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Al Wahda FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Wahda FC won 3-0 on 21 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Wahda FC have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ajman — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Al Wahda FC
1
Draws
3
Ajman
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Ajman?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Wahda FC have won 6, Ajman have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Wahda FC and Ajman last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2026, when Al Wahda FC 2-0 Ajman.
Who has won more matches between Al Wahda FC and Ajman?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Wahda FC see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Ajman see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Wahda FC 67%, Ajman 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Al Wahda FC and 0% for Ajman.
On the defensive side: Al Wahda FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ajman in 33%; Al Wahda FC have failed to score in 33% of games; Ajman in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wahda FC home games / Ajman away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wahda FC play Ajman?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Al Wahda FC's recent matches and 33% of Ajman's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Wahda FC vs Ajman usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al Wahda FC's recent games and 0% of Ajman's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Al Wahda FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Ajman.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wahda FC beat Ajman 3-0 at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 1.26 xG and Ajman 1.02 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al Wahda FC beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ajman landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 1.10 / defence 1.03 against Ajman attack 0.71 / defence 1.12, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 39% | Draw 33% | Ajman 28%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 44%, Ajman 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (9 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ajman's trading profile (9 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Wahda FC 1.89 PPG, Ajman 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Wahda FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. Ajman (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.