Al Urooba 1-1 Al-Dhafra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Urooba at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Urooba vs Al-Dhafra fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fujairah Stadium plays host to Al Urooba versus Al-Dhafra in Pro League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 9 January 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al Urooba's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Urooba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Urooba have posted 1W 3D 2L at Fujairah Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Dhafra have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Dhafra have posted 1W 1D 4L from 6 away outings — 0.67 PPG. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Al Urooba half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Al-Dhafra half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Urooba 58% versus Al-Dhafra 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Urooba 67% | Al-Dhafra 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Urooba 1.63 xG and Al-Dhafra 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Urooba attack 1.153 / defence 1.582 | Al-Dhafra attack 0.690 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.226. Data: 12 Al Urooba games / 12 Al-Dhafra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Urooba 43% | Draw 27% | Al-Dhafra 30%. Fair-value odds: Al Urooba 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Dhafra 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Urooba at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Urooba if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Urooba 83% | Al-Dhafra 33% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Urooba vs Al-Dhafra | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Fujairah Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Jan 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Urooba 43% | Draw 27% | Al-Dhafra 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Al Urooba 1.63 / Al-Dhafra 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Al Urooba attack 1.153 / def 1.582 | Al-Dhafra attack 0.690 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Al Urooba (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Al Urooba xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Al-Dhafra xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Urooba vs Al-Dhafra kick off?
Al Urooba vs Al-Dhafra kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 9 January 2022 at Fujairah Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Urooba vs Al-Dhafra?
Al Urooba 1 - 1 Al-Dhafra.
Where is Al Urooba vs Al-Dhafra being played?
The match is being played at Fujairah Stadium.
What competition is Al Urooba vs Al-Dhafra part of?
Al Urooba vs Al-Dhafra is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Urooba vs Al-Dhafra?
Our statistical model gives Al Urooba a 43% chance of winning, Al-Dhafra a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al Urooba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Urooba vs Al-Dhafra?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al Urooba and Al-Dhafra will score (BTTS).
Will Al Urooba vs Al-Dhafra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Urooba and Al-Dhafra?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Urooba and Al-Dhafra in?
Al Urooba (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Al-Dhafra (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Urooba's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Al-Dhafra's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. Flip it around — Al-Dhafra's attack (0.69x) against Al Urooba's defence (1.58x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Urooba Win
43%
2.34
27%
3.69
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Al Urooba xG
Total xG
2.96
1.34
Al-Dhafra xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
11%
8.92
6%
16.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.2 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Urooba vs Al-Dhafra?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Al Urooba and Al-Dhafra expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Al Urooba and 1.34 for Al-Dhafra, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Urooba vs Al-Dhafra?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Urooba come into this having played 12 games, going 1W 4D 7L for 0.58 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Al Urooba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Dhafra sit at 0.58 PPG from 12 outings (1W 4D 7L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Al-Dhafra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.58 PPG for Al Urooba against 0.58 for Al-Dhafra. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Al Urooba's home form reads 1W 3D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.58 PPG overall — Al Urooba are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al-Dhafra have taken 0.67 points per game from 6 outings (1W 1D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Al Urooba are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game recently; Al-Dhafra are on 0.83 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Urooba
Blended
Al-Dhafra
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Urooba and Al-Dhafra in coming into this match?
Al Urooba have gone 1W 4D 7L in their last 12 games (0.58 PPG), while Al-Dhafra have gone 1W 4D 7L in their last 12 (0.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Urooba at home or Al-Dhafra away?
Al Urooba's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Urooba at home: 1.00 PPG; Al-Dhafra away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al Urooba
1
Draws
1
Al-Dhafra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Urooba and Al-Dhafra?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Urooba have won 0, Al-Dhafra have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Urooba and Al-Dhafra last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2022, when Al-Dhafra 2-1 Al Urooba.
Who has won more matches between Al Urooba and Al-Dhafra?
Al-Dhafra have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Urooba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Al-Dhafra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Urooba 83%, Al-Dhafra 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 83% (Al Urooba) and 33% (Al-Dhafra). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 83% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Dhafra in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Urooba home games / Al-Dhafra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Urooba play Al-Dhafra?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Al Urooba's games and 33% of Al-Dhafra's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Urooba vs Al-Dhafra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Al Urooba's matches and 33% of Al-Dhafra's.
Do Al Urooba and Al-Dhafra tend to score early?
Al Urooba have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Dhafra in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Urooba and Al-Dhafra share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Urooba and Al-Dhafra finished level at 1-1 at Fujairah Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Urooba 1.63 xG and Al-Dhafra 1.34 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Urooba attack 1.15 / defence 1.58 against Al-Dhafra attack 0.69 / defence 1.14, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Urooba 43% | Draw 27% | Al-Dhafra 30%, with Al Urooba to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Urooba 67%, Al-Dhafra 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Urooba's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Urooba 0.58 PPG, Al-Dhafra 0.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Urooba (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.