Al Nasr 1-1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Nasr at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 10 as Al Nasr welcome Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to Al Maktoum Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 November 2021 at 16:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Nasr stand at 5W 1D 3L from 9 Pro League matches — 1.78 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 2.22 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 9 games (44%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al Nasr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al Maktoum Stadium, Al Nasr have gone 2W 1D 1L this season (4 games, 1.75 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al Maktoum Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Pro League games this season, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have recorded 4W 4D 1L from 9 outings — 1.78 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.11 per game is modest, conceding 0.78 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.78 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 9 outings (44%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record: 1W 3D 1L from 5 road trips in Pro League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 5 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.78 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.78 PPG (Al Nasr) versus 1.78 (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Al Nasr's 25% and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's 20% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
In-Play Data
Al Nasr trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Nasr 33% versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Nasr 100% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 22%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Nasr 1.10 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Nasr attack 1.172 / defence 1.225 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.546 / defence 0.872. League average goals — home 1.075 / away 1.379. Data: 9 Al Nasr games / 9 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Nasr 37% | Draw 35% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 28%. Fair-value odds: Al Nasr 2.70 | Draw 2.86 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Nasr are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Nasr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.02 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Nasr 25% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Al Maktoum Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Nasr 37% | Draw 35% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Al Nasr 1.10 / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Al Nasr attack 1.172 / def 1.225 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.546 / def 0.872 | league avg home 1.075 / away 1.379 • Poisson stance: Al Nasr (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Al Nasr xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kick off?
Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Al Nasr 1 - 1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Where is Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai being played?
The match is being played at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What competition is Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai part of?
Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our statistical model gives Al Nasr a 37% chance of winning, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 28% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Al Nasr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Al Nasr and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will score (BTTS).
Will Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Nasr and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in?
Al Nasr (all comps): 5W-1D-3L in 9 | 1.78 PPG | GF 2.22 / GA 1.22 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 4W-4D-1L in 9 | 1.78 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 0.78 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Nasr's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack versus Al Nasr's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Nasr Win
37%
2.70
35%
2.85
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Al Nasr xG
Total xG
2.02
0.92
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
2.70
37%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.35
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
15%
6.79
9%
10.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 12.2 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.4 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Al Nasr and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Al Nasr and 0.92 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 9 outings, Al Nasr have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 5W 1D 3L record — W-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al Nasr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's form line: 4W 4D 1L from 9 games, 1.78 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-D. The sample for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Nasr on 1.78 PPG, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai on 1.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al Nasr have posted 1.75 PPG from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L).
On the road, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.78 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Nasr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Nasr are averaging 2.22 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are on 1.11 scored and 0.78 conceded. Al Nasr's scoring rate against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Al Nasr have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Nasr
Blended
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Nasr and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in coming into this match?
Al Nasr have gone 5W 1D 3L in their last 9 games (1.78 PPG), while Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 4W 4D 1L in their last 9 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Nasr at home or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away?
Al Nasr's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Nasr at home: 1.75 PPG; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Al Nasr or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Nasr have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Nov 2022, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Nasr's record when hosting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al Nasr
4
Draws
4
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Nasr have won 2, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Nasr and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2026, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2-1 Al Nasr.
Who has won more matches between Al Nasr and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al Nasr 25% BTTS, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 100% (Al Nasr) and 0% (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai).
On the defensive side: Al Nasr keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 50%; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Nasr home games / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Nasr play Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Al Nasr's recent matches and 25% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Al Nasr's recent games and 0% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Nasr and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai tend to score early?
Al Nasr have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Nasr and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Nasr and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai finished level at 1-1 at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 1.10 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0.92 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 1.17 / defence 1.23 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.55 / defence 0.87, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 37% | Draw 35% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 28%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 100%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 22%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Nasr's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Nasr 1.78 PPG, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Nasr (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.