Al Nasr 1-2 Al-Wasl FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Nasr at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Nasr vs Al-Wasl FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Nasr host Al-Wasl FC at Al Maktoum Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 October 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Nasr — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al Nasr have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Nasr's home record at Al Maktoum Stadium: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Wasl FC have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al-Wasl FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al-Wasl FC have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Al Nasr) versus 1.50 (Al-Wasl FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Al Nasr have won 2, Al-Wasl FC 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2022, ended 3–2 with Al Nasr winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al Nasr in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Al-Wasl FC in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Nasr 52% versus Al-Wasl FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Nasr 66% | Al-Wasl FC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Nasr 1.51 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Nasr attack 1.022 / defence 0.888 | Al-Wasl FC attack 1.096 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.185. Data: 29 Al Nasr games / 29 Al-Wasl FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al Nasr 44% | Draw 29% | Al-Wasl FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Al Nasr 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Wasl FC 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Nasr are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Nasr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Nasr 40% | Al-Wasl FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (29 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Nasr vs Al-Wasl FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Al Maktoum Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Nasr 44% | Draw 29% | Al-Wasl FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Al Nasr 1.51 / Al-Wasl FC 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Al Nasr attack 1.022 / def 0.888 | Al-Wasl FC attack 1.096 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.517 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Al Nasr (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Al Nasr xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Al-Wasl FC xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Nasr vs Al-Wasl FC kick off?
Al Nasr vs Al-Wasl FC kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Nasr vs Al-Wasl FC?
Al Nasr 1 - 2 Al-Wasl FC.
Where is Al Nasr vs Al-Wasl FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What competition is Al Nasr vs Al-Wasl FC part of?
Al Nasr vs Al-Wasl FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Nasr vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Nasr a 44% chance of winning, Al-Wasl FC a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al Nasr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Nasr vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al Nasr and Al-Wasl FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Nasr vs Al-Wasl FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Al-Wasl FC?
Record (2 meetings): Al Nasr 2W | Draws 0 | Al-Wasl FC 0W.
What form are Al Nasr and Al-Wasl FC in?
Al Nasr (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Nasr's attack rating (1.02) and Al-Wasl FC's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Wasl FC's attack versus Al Nasr's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (29/29 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Nasr Win
44%
2.29
29%
3.44
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Al Nasr xG
Total xG
2.66
1.15
Al-Wasl FC xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
14%
7.27
6%
16.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.1 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Nasr vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Al Nasr and Al-Wasl FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Al Nasr and 1.15 for Al-Wasl FC, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Nasr vs Al-Wasl FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Nasr's recent record stands at 10W 8D 11L from 29 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al Nasr, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Wasl FC, meanwhile, have gone 10W 11D 8L across 29 games — 1.41 PPG, with D-W-D-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Nasr on 1.31 PPG, Al-Wasl FC on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al Nasr have managed 6W 2D 6L from 14 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Wasl FC's away record stands at 5W 4D 5L across 14 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Al Nasr are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Al-Wasl FC are on 1.41 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Wasl FC in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Nasr
Early Season
Al-Wasl FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Nasr and Al-Wasl FC in coming into this match?
Al Nasr have gone 10W 8D 11L in their last 29 games (1.31 PPG), while Al-Wasl FC have gone 10W 11D 8L in their last 29 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Nasr at home or Al-Wasl FC away?
Al Nasr's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Nasr at home: 1.43 PPG; Al-Wasl FC away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Al Nasr or Al-Wasl FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Nasr have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Al-Wasl FC in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Nasr and Al-Wasl FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Nasr's record when hosting Al-Wasl FC specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al Nasr
1
Draws
7
Al-Wasl FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Al-Wasl FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Nasr have won 2, Al-Wasl FC have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Nasr and Al-Wasl FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2026, when Al Nasr 1-1 Al-Wasl FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Nasr and Al-Wasl FC?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Nasr 36%, Al-Wasl FC 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Al Nasr) and 50% (Al-Wasl FC).
On the defensive side: Al Nasr keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Al-Wasl FC in 36%; Al Nasr have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Nasr home games / Al-Wasl FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Nasr play Al-Wasl FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Al Nasr's recent matches and 64% of Al-Wasl FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Nasr vs Al-Wasl FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Al Nasr's recent games and 50% of Al-Wasl FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Nasr and Al-Wasl FC tend to score early?
Al Nasr have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Al-Wasl FC in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Wasl FC defy the odds to beat Al Nasr 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Wasl FC beat Al Nasr 1-2 at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 1.51 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.15 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al-Wasl FC outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 1.02 / defence 0.89 against Al-Wasl FC attack 1.10 / defence 0.97, drawn from 29/29 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 44% | Draw 29% | Al-Wasl FC 27%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Al-Wasl FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 66%, Al-Wasl FC 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Nasr's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Nasr 1.31 PPG, Al-Wasl FC 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Wasl FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al Nasr (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.