Al Nasr 1-1 Ajman – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Nasr at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Nasr vs Ajman fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Maktoum Stadium plays host to Al Nasr versus Ajman in Pro League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Tuesday 21 May 2024 at 15:10 UTC.
Form
Al Nasr (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Nasr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Nasr have posted 6W 2D 2L at Al Maktoum Stadium — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Ajman have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Ajman have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Al Nasr. A 0.60 PPG lead over Ajman (2.30 vs 1.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Nasr lead 2W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2023, ended 3–0 with Al Nasr winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al Nasr goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Ajman goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Nasr 48% versus Ajman 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Nasr 52% | Ajman 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Nasr 1.48 xG and Ajman 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Nasr attack 1.011 / defence 0.841 | Ajman attack 0.964 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.697. Data: 49 Al Nasr games / 48 Ajman games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Nasr 40% | Draw 26% | Ajman 35%. Fair-value odds: Al Nasr 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Ajman 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Nasr are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Nasr if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Al Nasr 50% | Ajman 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Nasr vs Ajman | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Al Maktoum Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 May 2024, 15:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Nasr 40% | Draw 26% | Ajman 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Al Nasr 1.48 / Ajman 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Al Nasr attack 1.011 / def 0.841 | Ajman attack 0.964 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.697 • Poisson stance: Al Nasr (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Al Nasr xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Ajman xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Nasr vs Ajman kick off?
Al Nasr vs Ajman kicked off at 15:10 on Tuesday 21 May 2024 at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Nasr vs Ajman?
Al Nasr 1 - 1 Ajman.
Where is Al Nasr vs Ajman being played?
The match is being played at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What competition is Al Nasr vs Ajman part of?
Al Nasr vs Ajman is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Nasr vs Ajman?
Our statistical model gives Al Nasr a 40% chance of winning, Ajman a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Nasr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Nasr vs Ajman?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al Nasr and Ajman will score (BTTS).
Will Al Nasr vs Ajman have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Ajman?
Record (5 meetings): Al Nasr 2W | Draws 0 | Ajman 3W.
What form are Al Nasr and Ajman in?
Al Nasr (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Ajman (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Nasr's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Ajman's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. Flip it around — Ajman's attack (0.96x) against Al Nasr's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 49/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Nasr Win
40%
2.52
26%
3.92
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Al Nasr xG
Total xG
2.86
1.38
Ajman xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
10%
9.98
8%
12.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.9 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.7 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Nasr vs Ajman?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Al Nasr and Ajman expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Al Nasr and 1.38 for Ajman, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Nasr vs Ajman?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, Al Nasr have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 18W 10D 20L record — W-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al Nasr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajman's form line: 20W 12D 16L from 48 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-W. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Al Nasr against 1.50 for Ajman. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al Nasr have posted 1.67 PPG from 24 outings (12W 4D 8L).
On the road, Ajman have gone 10W 7D 7L from 24 away games — 1.54 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Nasr are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Ajman are on 1.54 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Nasr
Blended
Ajman
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Nasr and Ajman in coming into this match?
Al Nasr have gone 18W 10D 20L in their last 48 games (1.33 PPG), while Ajman have gone 20W 12D 16L in their last 48 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Nasr at home or Ajman away?
Al Nasr's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Nasr at home: 1.67 PPG; Ajman away: 1.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ajman won 3-0 on 19 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Nasr have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ajman — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al Nasr
2
Draws
4
Ajman
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Ajman?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Nasr have won 4, Ajman have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Nasr and Ajman last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Ajman 2-2 Al Nasr.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Nasr 42%, Ajman 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Al Nasr) and 54% (Ajman).
On the defensive side: Al Nasr keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Nasr home games / Ajman away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Nasr play Ajman?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Al Nasr's recent matches and 58% of Ajman's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Nasr vs Ajman usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Al Nasr's recent games and 54% of Ajman's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Nasr and Ajman tend to score early?
Al Nasr have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Ajman in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Nasr and Ajman share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 24, as Al Nasr and Ajman drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 1.48 xG and Ajman 1.38 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 1.01 / defence 0.84 against Ajman attack 0.96 / defence 0.98, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 40% | Draw 26% | Ajman 35%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 52%, Ajman 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Nasr's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Ajman's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Nasr 1.33 PPG, Ajman 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.