Al-Jazira 3-3 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Jazira at 36%, yet in-form Sharjah FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 5 as Al-Jazira welcome Sharjah FC to Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 7 October 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Jazira have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Jazira have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Jazira's form when playing at home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 games at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Al-Jazira are significantly better at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Sharjah FC — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.80 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Sharjah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sharjah FC away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sharjah FC — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.80 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al-Jazira, 1 for Sharjah FC and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2022, ended 1–0 with Al-Jazira winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Jazira trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Sharjah FC trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Jazira 57% versus Sharjah FC 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Jazira 63% | Sharjah FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Jazira 1.48 xG and Sharjah FC 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Jazira attack 1.183 / defence 0.857 | Sharjah FC attack 1.285 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.292. Sharjah FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.285 — the away xG of 1.42 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 30 Al-Jazira games / 30 Sharjah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Jazira 36% | Draw 29% | Sharjah FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Al-Jazira 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Sharjah FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Jazira are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sharjah FC (2.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Jazira offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Jazira 60% | Sharjah FC 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 7 Oct 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Jazira 36% | Draw 29% | Sharjah FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 61% | xG Al-Jazira 1.48 / Sharjah FC 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Jazira attack 1.183 / def 0.857 | Sharjah FC attack 1.285 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Al-Jazira xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Sharjah FC xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC kick off?
Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 7 October 2022 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC?
Al-Jazira 3 - 3 Sharjah FC.
Where is Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC being played?
The match is being played at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC part of?
Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Jazira a 36% chance of winning, Sharjah FC a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al-Jazira and Sharjah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Sharjah FC?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Jazira 1W | Draws 0 | Sharjah FC 1W.
What form are Al-Jazira and Sharjah FC in?
Al-Jazira (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Sharjah FC (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Jazira's attack rating (1.18) and Sharjah FC's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sharjah FC's attack versus Al-Jazira's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
36%
2.74
29%
3.40
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Al-Jazira xG
Total xG
2.90
1.42
Sharjah FC xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
9%
11.36
8%
12.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.6 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Al-Jazira and Sharjah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Al-Jazira and 1.42 for Sharjah FC, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Jazira's recent record stands at 17W 4D 9L from 30 games, a 1.83 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Jazira, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sharjah FC, meanwhile, have gone 21W 4D 5L across 30 games — 2.23 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sharjah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Jazira on 1.83 PPG, Sharjah FC on 2.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Jazira have managed 13W 0D 2L from 15 games — 2.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.83 PPG overall — Al-Jazira are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sharjah FC's away record stands at 8W 4D 3L across 15 trips, a 1.87 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Jazira come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Jazira are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Sharjah FC are on 1.90 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Jazira have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Sharjah FC in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Jazira
Early Season
Sharjah FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Jazira and Sharjah FC in coming into this match?
Al-Jazira have gone 17W 4D 9L in their last 30 games (1.83 PPG), while Sharjah FC have gone 21W 4D 5L in their last 30 (2.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Jazira at home or Sharjah FC away?
Al-Jazira's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Jazira at home: 2.60 PPG; Sharjah FC away: 1.87 PPG.
Have Al-Jazira or Sharjah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Jazira have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Sharjah FC in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 26 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Jazira have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2026, when Al-Jazira won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Jazira's record when hosting Sharjah FC specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Jazira
4
Draws
2
Sharjah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Sharjah FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Jazira have won 4, Sharjah FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Jazira and Sharjah FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2026, when Al-Jazira 5-0 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Jazira and Sharjah FC?
Al-Jazira have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Jazira 53%, Sharjah FC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Al-Jazira) and 47% (Sharjah FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Jazira keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Sharjah FC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Jazira home games / Sharjah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Jazira play Sharjah FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Al-Jazira's recent matches and 47% of Sharjah FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al-Jazira's matches and 47% of Sharjah FC's.
Do Al-Jazira and Sharjah FC tend to score early?
Al-Jazira have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Sharjah FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Jazira and Sharjah FC share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Jazira and Sharjah FC finished level at 3-3 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 1.48 xG and Sharjah FC 1.42 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Al-Jazira beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sharjah FC outscored their 1.42 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 1.18 / defence 0.86 against Sharjah FC attack 1.28 / defence 0.85, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 36% | Draw 29% | Sharjah FC 34%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 63%, Sharjah FC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Jazira's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Sharjah FC's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Jazira 1.83 PPG, Sharjah FC 2.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.13 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.