Al-Jazira 1-0 Dibba Al Hisn – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Jazira at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al Hisn encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al-Jazira welcome Dibba Al Hisn to Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium in Pro League (matchday 18). Kick-off is Friday 28 February 2025 at 13:35 UK time.
Form Guide
Al-Jazira — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al-Jazira's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Al-Jazira are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Dibba Al Hisn have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Dibba Al Hisn have gone 1W 3D 5L in their last 9 away fixtures (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al-Jazira carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Al-Jazira, 0 for Dibba Al Hisn and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 7.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2024, ended Al-Jazira 6–1 Dibba Al Hisn — a Al-Jazira win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 7.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Jazira in-play and half-time data (last 17 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Dibba Al Hisn in-play and half-time data (last 17 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Jazira 59% and Dibba Al Hisn 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Jazira 71% | Dibba Al Hisn 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Jazira 1.82 xG and Dibba Al Hisn 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Jazira attack 0.929 / defence 0.888 | Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.843 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.408. Dibba Al Hisn's defence rating of 1.221 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Jazira's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Jazira's last 42 games and Dibba Al Hisn's last 17.
Result probabilities: Al-Jazira 55% | Draw 23% | Dibba Al Hisn 22%. Fair-value odds: Al-Jazira 1.81 | Draw 4.36 | Dibba Al Hisn 4.58. The model has a clear lean to Al-Jazira (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Jazira at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Jazira's last 10 home games and Dibba Al Hisn's last 9 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Jazira 50% (last 10 home games) | Dibba Al Hisn 78% (last 9 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al Hisn | Competition: Pro League, matchday 18 | Venue: Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 28 February 2025 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Jazira 55% | Draw 23% | Dibba Al Hisn 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Al-Jazira 1.82 / Dibba Al Hisn 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Jazira attack 0.929 / def 0.888 | Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.843 / def 1.221 | league avg home 1.603 / away 1.408 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Al-Jazira xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Dibba Al Hisn xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al Hisn FAQs
What time does Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al Hisn kick off?
Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al Hisn kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Friday 28 February 2025 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al Hisn?
Al-Jazira 1 - 0 Dibba Al Hisn.
Where is Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al Hisn being played?
The match is being played at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al Hisn part of?
Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al Hisn is a Pro League fixture (matchday 18) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al Hisn?
Our statistical model gives Al-Jazira a 55% chance of winning, Dibba Al Hisn a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al Hisn?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al-Jazira and Dibba Al Hisn will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al Hisn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Jazira's attack at 0.93x the league average against Dibba Al Hisn's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dibba Al Hisn's attack versus Al-Jazira's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Jazira's last 42 games and Dibba Al Hisn's last 17 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
55%
1.81
23%
4.36
22%
4.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Al-Jazira xG
Total xG
2.87
1.05
Dibba Al Hisn xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
4.58
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
16%
6.15
Win to Nil
19%
5.20
4%
28.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.9 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al Hisn Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al Hisn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Al-Jazira and Dibba Al Hisn expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Al-Jazira and 1.05 for Dibba Al Hisn, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al Hisn?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Jazira come into this having played 17 games, going 9W 3D 5L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-W.
On the other side, Dibba Al Hisn sit at 0.59 PPG from 17 outings (2W 4D 11L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five.
Al-Jazira carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.17 PPG clear of Dibba Al Hisn — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Jazira's home form reads 5W 1D 2L across their last 8 home games, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Dibba Al Hisn have taken 0.75 points per game from their last 8 away games (1W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Jazira come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Jazira are averaging 2.18 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Dibba Al Hisn are on 1.06 scored and 2.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dibba Al Hisn in 71%.
Last 17 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Jazira
Blended
Dibba Al Hisn
Blended
Al-Jazira (Home) vs Dibba Al Hisn (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Jazira
Blended
Dibba Al Hisn
Blended
❓ Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al Hisn Form FAQs
What form are Al-Jazira and Dibba Al Hisn in coming into this match?
Al-Jazira have gone 9W 3D 5L in their last 17 games (1.76 PPG), while Dibba Al Hisn have gone 2W 4D 11L in their last 17 (0.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Jazira at home or Dibba Al Hisn away?
Al-Jazira's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Jazira at home: 2.00 PPG; Dibba Al Hisn away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2024. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 28 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Al-Jazira
0
Draws
0
Dibba Al Hisn
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al Hisn H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Dibba Al Hisn?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Jazira have won 2, Dibba Al Hisn have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Jazira and Dibba Al Hisn last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2025: Al-Jazira 1-0 Dibba Al Hisn.
Who has won more matches between Al-Jazira and Dibba Al Hisn?
Al-Jazira have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Dibba Al Hisn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Jazira at 50%, Dibba Al Hisn at 88%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Al-Jazira and 62% for Dibba Al Hisn. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Jazira keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Jazira home games / Dibba Al Hisn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al Hisn Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Jazira and Dibba Al Hisn matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al-Jazira's games and 88% of Dibba Al Hisn's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Jazira and Dibba Al Hisn matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Al-Jazira's matches and 62% of Dibba Al Hisn's.
Do Al-Jazira and Dibba Al Hisn matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Al-Jazira's recent matches and 75% of Dibba Al Hisn's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Jazira edge out Dibba Al Hisn 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Jazira beat Dibba Al Hisn 1-0 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 1.82 xG and Dibba Al Hisn 1.05 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Jazira fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Dibba Al Hisn landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 0.93 / defence 0.89 against Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.84 / defence 1.22, drawn from 42/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 55% | Draw 23% | Dibba Al Hisn 22%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 71%, Dibba Al Hisn 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Jazira's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Dibba Al Hisn's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Jazira arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 0.59. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Dibba Al Hisn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.