Al-Jazira 2-0 Baniyas SC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al-Jazira at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium plays host to Al-Jazira versus Baniyas SC in Pro League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 18 February 2023 at 16:15 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Jazira's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Al-Jazira have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Baniyas SC have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Baniyas SC have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al-Jazira, 0 for Baniyas SC and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al-Jazira half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Baniyas SC half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Jazira 57% versus Baniyas SC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Jazira 60% | Baniyas SC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Jazira 1.64 xG and Baniyas SC 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Jazira attack 0.990 / defence 0.959 | Baniyas SC attack 1.179 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.554 / away 1.428. Data: 42 Al-Jazira games / 42 Baniyas SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Jazira 39% | Draw 23% | Baniyas SC 38%. Fair-value odds: Al-Jazira 2.56 | Draw 4.35 | Baniyas SC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Jazira at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Jazira if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.26 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Jazira 50% | Baniyas SC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Jazira 39% | Draw 23% | Baniyas SC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG Al-Jazira 1.64 / Baniyas SC 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Jazira attack 0.990 / def 0.959 | Baniyas SC attack 1.179 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.554 / away 1.428 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Al-Jazira xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Baniyas SC xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC kick off?
Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC kicked off at 16:15 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC?
Al-Jazira 2 - 0 Baniyas SC.
Where is Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC being played?
The match is being played at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC part of?
Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Jazira a 39% chance of winning, Baniyas SC a 38% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Al-Jazira and Baniyas SC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Baniyas SC?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Jazira 1W | Draws 2 | Baniyas SC 0W.
What form are Al-Jazira and Baniyas SC in?
Al-Jazira (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Baniyas SC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Jazira's attack rating (0.99) and Baniyas SC's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Baniyas SC's attack (1.18x) against Al-Jazira's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
39%
2.57
23%
4.31
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Al-Jazira xG
Total xG
3.26
1.61
Baniyas SC xG
2.57
39%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
20%
5.03
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
8%
12.90
7%
13.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.2 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.4 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Al-Jazira and Baniyas SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Al-Jazira and 1.61 for Baniyas SC, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 42 outings, Al-Jazira have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 22W 6D 14L record — W-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Jazira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baniyas SC's form line: 13W 11D 18L from 42 games, 1.19 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D. The sample for Baniyas SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Jazira are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Baniyas SC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Jazira have posted 2.24 PPG from 21 outings (15W 2D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.71 PPG overall — Al-Jazira are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Baniyas SC have gone 6W 6D 9L from 21 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Jazira come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Jazira are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Baniyas SC are on 1.33 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Jazira
Blended
Baniyas SC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Jazira and Baniyas SC in coming into this match?
Al-Jazira have gone 22W 6D 14L in their last 42 games (1.71 PPG), while Baniyas SC have gone 13W 11D 18L in their last 42 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Jazira at home or Baniyas SC away?
Al-Jazira's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Jazira at home: 2.24 PPG; Baniyas SC away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Al-Jazira or Baniyas SC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Jazira have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Baniyas SC in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Al-Jazira go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Jazira won 0-4 on 19 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Jazira have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Baniyas SC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Al-Jazira
2
Draws
2
Baniyas SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Baniyas SC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Jazira have won 6, Baniyas SC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Jazira and Baniyas SC last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Al-Jazira 4-1 Baniyas SC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Jazira and Baniyas SC?
Al-Jazira have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Jazira 52%, Baniyas SC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Al-Jazira and 71% for Baniyas SC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Jazira keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Baniyas SC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Jazira home games / Baniyas SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Jazira play Baniyas SC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Al-Jazira's games and 67% of Baniyas SC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Al-Jazira's matches and 71% of Baniyas SC's.
Do Al-Jazira and Baniyas SC tend to score early?
Al-Jazira have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Baniyas SC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Jazira cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Baniyas SC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Jazira beat Baniyas SC 2-0 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 1.64 xG and Baniyas SC 1.61 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Baniyas SC landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 0.99 / defence 0.96 against Baniyas SC attack 1.18 / defence 1.07, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 39% | Draw 23% | Baniyas SC 38%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 60%, Baniyas SC 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Jazira's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Baniyas SC's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Jazira arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.19. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.