Al-Jazira 1-5 Al Ain – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Jazira at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Jazira vs Al Ain fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Jazira and Al Ain meet at Al Nahyan Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 November 2021 at 16:15 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Jazira's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 1D 3L from 9 games (1.78 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.44 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 9 games (44%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Jazira have posted 5W 0D 0L at Al Nahyan Stadium — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al Nahyan Stadium. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.78 — Al-Jazira are significantly better at Al Nahyan Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Ain have collected 2.33 PPG across 9 Pro League outings this season: 6W 3D 0L. Last five: D D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.78 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 9 outings (44%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al Ain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Ain's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 0L across 5 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Al Ain arrive in superior form — a 0.55 PPG advantage (2.33 vs 1.78) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Al-Jazira half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Al Ain half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Jazira 56% versus Al Ain 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Jazira 56% | Al Ain 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Jazira 1.25 xG and Al Ain 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Jazira attack 1.147 / defence 0.908 | Al Ain attack 1.012 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.032 / away 1.334. Data: 9 Al-Jazira games / 9 Al Ain games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Jazira 35% | Draw 31% | Al Ain 34%. Fair-value odds: Al-Jazira 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Al Ain 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Jazira at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Ain (2.33 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Jazira if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Jazira 40% | Al Ain 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Jazira vs Al Ain | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Al Nahyan Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Jazira 35% | Draw 31% | Al Ain 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Al-Jazira 1.25 / Al Ain 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Jazira attack 1.147 / def 0.908 | Al Ain attack 1.012 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.032 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Al-Jazira xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Al Ain xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Jazira vs Al Ain kick off?
Al-Jazira vs Al Ain kicked off at 16:15 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Jazira vs Al Ain?
Al-Jazira 1 - 5 Al Ain.
Where is Al-Jazira vs Al Ain being played?
The match is being played at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What competition is Al-Jazira vs Al Ain part of?
Al-Jazira vs Al Ain is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Jazira vs Al Ain?
Our statistical model gives Al-Jazira a 35% chance of winning, Al Ain a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Jazira vs Al Ain?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al-Jazira and Al Ain will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Jazira vs Al Ain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Al Ain?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Jazira and Al Ain in?
Al-Jazira (all comps): 5W-1D-3L in 9 | 1.78 PPG | GF 1.44 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Al Ain (all comps): 6W-3D-0L in 9 | 2.33 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.78 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Jazira's attack at 1.15x the league average against Al Ain's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Ain's attack (1.01x) against Al-Jazira's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
35%
2.85
31%
3.25
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Al-Jazira xG
Total xG
2.47
1.23
Al Ain xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
10%
9.70
10%
10.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.4 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Jazira vs Al Ain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Al-Jazira and Al Ain expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Al-Jazira and 1.23 for Al Ain, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Jazira vs Al Ain?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 9 outings, Al-Jazira have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 5W 1D 3L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Jazira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Ain's form line: 6W 3D 0L from 9 games, 2.33 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-W. The sample for Al Ain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Ain are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Jazira.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Jazira have posted 3.00 PPG from 5 outings (5W 0D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.78 PPG overall — Al-Jazira are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al Ain have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 away games — 2.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Jazira come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Jazira are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al Ain are on 2.00 scored and 0.78 conceded. Al Ain's attacking output running into Al-Jazira's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Al-Jazira have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Al Ain in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Jazira
Blended
Al Ain
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Jazira and Al Ain in coming into this match?
Al-Jazira have gone 5W 1D 3L in their last 9 games (1.78 PPG), while Al Ain have gone 6W 3D 0L in their last 9 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Jazira at home or Al Ain away?
Al-Jazira's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Jazira at home: 3.00 PPG; Al Ain away: 2.20 PPG.
Have Al-Jazira or Al Ain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Jazira have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Al Ain in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Ain won 5-0 on 11 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Jazira have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Ain — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al-Jazira
3
Draws
5
Al Ain
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Al Ain?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Jazira have won 2, Al Ain have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Jazira and Al Ain last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Al-Jazira 0-1 Al Ain.
Who has won more matches between Al-Jazira and Al Ain?
Al Ain have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Al Ain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Jazira 40%, Al Ain 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Al-Jazira) and 40% (Al Ain).
On the defensive side: Al-Jazira keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Al Ain in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Jazira home games / Al Ain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Jazira play Al Ain?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Al-Jazira's recent matches and 60% of Al Ain's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Jazira vs Al Ain usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Al-Jazira's recent games and 40% of Al Ain's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Jazira and Al Ain tend to score early?
Al-Jazira have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Al Ain in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Ain run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Al-Jazira.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Ain beat Al-Jazira 1-5 at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 1.25 xG and Al Ain 1.23 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Al Ain outscored their 1.23 projection by 3.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 1.15 / defence 0.91 against Al Ain attack 1.01 / defence 1.05, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 35% | Draw 31% | Al Ain 34%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Al Ain win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 56%, Al Ain 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Jazira's trading profile (9 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Ain's trading profile (9 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Ain arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.78. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 0.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Ain (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.