Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-1 Dibba Al-Fujairah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Dibba Al-Fujairah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 17 as Al-Ittihad Kalba welcome Dibba Al-Fujairah to Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ittihad Kalba — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad Kalba at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dibba Al-Fujairah stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dibba Al-Fujairah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 4L across 7 road games this term (0.71 PPG). Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Dibba Al-Fujairah — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al-Ittihad Kalba, 0 for Dibba Al-Fujairah and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with Al-Ittihad Kalba winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ittihad Kalba in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Dibba Al-Fujairah in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% and Dibba Al-Fujairah 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.70 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.922 / defence 1.156 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.595 / defence 1.421. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.511. Dibba Al-Fujairah bring a strong defensive rating of 1.421 — this is suppressing Al-Ittihad Kalba's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Al-Ittihad Kalba games / 15 Dibba Al-Fujairah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 53% | Draw 24% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 23%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Dibba Al-Fujairah 4.35. Al-Ittihad Kalba hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Al-Ittihad Kalba dominate the H2H record, yet Dibba Al-Fujairah are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad Kalba at 53% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dibba Al-Fujairah (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad Kalba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad Kalba 70% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 43% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Dibba Al-Fujairah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 53% | Draw 24% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.70 / Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.922 / def 1.156 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.595 / def 1.421 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.511 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad Kalba (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Dibba Al-Fujairah kick off?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Dibba Al-Fujairah kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Al-Ittihad Kalba 2 - 1 Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Where is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Dibba Al-Fujairah being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Dibba Al-Fujairah part of?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Dibba Al-Fujairah is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad Kalba a 53% chance of winning, Dibba Al-Fujairah a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad Kalba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al-Ittihad Kalba and Dibba Al-Fujairah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Dibba Al-Fujairah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Ittihad Kalba 2W | Draws 1 | Dibba Al-Fujairah 0W.
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Dibba Al-Fujairah in?
Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Dibba Al-Fujairah (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack rating (0.92) and Dibba Al-Fujairah's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack versus Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad Kalba Win
53%
1.89
24%
4.16
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Total xG
2.74
1.04
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
18%
5.48
Win to Nil
19%
5.35
4%
23.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.4 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Dibba Al-Fujairah expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 1.04 for Dibba Al-Fujairah, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ittihad Kalba's recent record stands at 4W 4D 7L from 15 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dibba Al-Fujairah, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 9L across 15 games — 0.80 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Dibba Al-Fujairah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ittihad Kalba on 1.07 PPG, Dibba Al-Fujairah on 0.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Ittihad Kalba have managed 0W 4D 3L from 7 games — 0.57 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.07 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's away record stands at 1W 2D 4L across 7 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ittihad Kalba are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Dibba Al-Fujairah are on 0.93 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad Kalba have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Dibba Al-Fujairah in 60%.
Last 15 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Dibba Al-Fujairah in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 4W 4D 7L in their last 15 games (1.07 PPG), while Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 3W 3D 9L in their last 15 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home or Dibba Al-Fujairah away?
Dibba Al-Fujairah's away record (0.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home: 0.57 PPG; Dibba Al-Fujairah away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ittihad Kalba have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's record when hosting Dibba Al-Fujairah specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Al-Ittihad Kalba
1
Draws
0
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 3, Dibba Al-Fujairah have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad Kalba and Dibba Al-Fujairah last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-1 Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ittihad Kalba see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Dibba Al-Fujairah see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad Kalba 71%, Dibba Al-Fujairah 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Al-Ittihad Kalba) and 43% (Dibba Al-Fujairah).
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad Kalba have failed to score in 29% of games; Dibba Al-Fujairah in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad Kalba home games / Dibba Al-Fujairah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad Kalba play Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's games and 43% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Dibba Al-Fujairah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's recent games and 43% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad Kalba edge out Dibba Al-Fujairah 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad Kalba beat Dibba Al-Fujairah 2-1 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.70 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.04 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.92 / defence 1.16 against Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.59 / defence 1.42, drawn from 42/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 53% | Draw 24% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 23%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 60%, Dibba Al-Fujairah 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.07 PPG, Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ittihad Kalba win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.