Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-1 Al Wahda FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al Wahda FC at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Al Wahda FC travel to Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium to take on Al-Ittihad Kalba. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 March 2025, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba have posted 4W 4D 2L at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Al-Ittihad Kalba are significantly better at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Wahda FC — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Wahda FC have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al Wahda FC are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 3, Al Wahda FC 4, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2024, ended 1–3 with Al Wahda FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Ittihad Kalba trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Al Wahda FC trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad Kalba 65% and Al Wahda FC 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad Kalba 65% | Al Wahda FC 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.46 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.986 / defence 0.999 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.181 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.290. Data: 44 Al-Ittihad Kalba games / 43 Al Wahda FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 36% | Draw 24% | Al Wahda FC 39%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.78 | Draw 4.17 | Al Wahda FC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Wahda FC as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ittihad Kalba 50% | Al Wahda FC 50%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Mar 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 36% | Draw 24% | Al Wahda FC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.46 / Al Wahda FC 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.986 / def 0.999 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.181 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Al Wahda FC xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC kick off?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 29 March 2025 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC?
Al-Ittihad Kalba 0 - 1 Al Wahda FC.
Where is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC part of?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad Kalba a 36% chance of winning, Al Wahda FC a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Wahda FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Wahda FC?
Record (7 meetings): Al-Ittihad Kalba 3W | Draws 0 | Al Wahda FC 4W.
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Wahda FC in?
Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Al Wahda FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Ittihad Kalba's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Al Wahda FC's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wahda FC's attack versus Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
36%
2.74
24%
4.10
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Total xG
2.98
1.52
Al Wahda FC xG
2.74
36%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
22%
4.58
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
8%
12.55
9%
10.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.7 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.3 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.2 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Wahda FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 1.52 for Al Wahda FC, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ittihad Kalba come into this having played 43 games, going 11W 15D 17L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-D. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Wahda FC sit at 1.70 PPG from 43 outings (21W 10D 12L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Wahda FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Al-Ittihad Kalba — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Ittihad Kalba's home form reads 6W 7D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Wahda FC have taken 1.48 points per game from 21 outings (9W 4D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ittihad Kalba are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Al Wahda FC are on 1.81 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad Kalba have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Al Wahda FC in 63%.
Last 43 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
Al Wahda FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Wahda FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 11W 15D 17L in their last 43 games (1.12 PPG), while Al Wahda FC have gone 21W 10D 12L in their last 43 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home or Al Wahda FC away?
Al Wahda FC's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home: 1.19 PPG; Al Wahda FC away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 9 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's record when hosting Al Wahda FC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Ittihad Kalba
2
Draws
5
Al Wahda FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Wahda FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 3, Al Wahda FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Wahda FC last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2026, when Al Wahda FC 2-2 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Wahda FC?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad Kalba 62%, Al Wahda FC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 57% for Al Wahda FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Wahda FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad Kalba home games / Al Wahda FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad Kalba play Al Wahda FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's games and 52% of Al Wahda FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's matches and 57% of Al Wahda FC's.
Do Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Wahda FC tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al Wahda FC in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Wahda FC edge out Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wahda FC beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-1 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.46 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.52 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Ittihad Kalba fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.99 / defence 1.00 against Al Wahda FC attack 1.18 / defence 0.97, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 36% | Draw 24% | Al Wahda FC 39%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 65%, Al Wahda FC 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.