Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-0 Al-Jazira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Jazira at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Al-Jazira travel to Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium to take on Al-Ittihad Kalba. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 25 August 2021, 16:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba stand at 0W 0D 1L from 1 Pro League matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Al-Ittihad Kalba have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Jazira have recorded 1W 0D 0L from 1 outings — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Al-Jazira have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Al-Jazira's 3.00 PPG return is 3.00 points per game ahead of Al-Ittihad Kalba's 0.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using overall form). Al-Ittihad Kalba's 0% and Al-Jazira's 0% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 0.80 xG and Al-Jazira 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.985 / defence 1.150 | Al-Jazira attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.707 / away 1.269. Data: 1 Al-Ittihad Kalba games / 1 Al-Jazira games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 24% | Draw 29% | Al-Jazira 47%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 4.17 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Jazira 2.13. Al-Jazira hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Jazira are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Jazira offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 25 Aug 2021, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 24% | Draw 29% | Al-Jazira 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 39% | xG Al-Ittihad Kalba 0.80 / Al-Jazira 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.985 / def 1.150 | Al-Jazira attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.707 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Al-Jazira xG
39%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira kick off?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira kicked off at 16:15 on Wednesday 25 August 2021 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira?
Al-Ittihad Kalba 0 - 0 Al-Jazira.
Where is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira part of?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad Kalba a 24% chance of winning, Al-Jazira a 47% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira in?
Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L. Al-Jazira (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Ittihad Kalba's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Al-Jazira's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.80. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Jazira's attack versus Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 1/1 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 14.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.6%), 0-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
24%
4.17
29%
3.39
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Total xG
2.04
1.24
Al-Jazira xG
4.17
24%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
45%
2.23
Win to Nil
7%
14.44
21%
4.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 16.1 | 10.0 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.9 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 1.24 for Al-Jazira, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 1 outings, Al-Ittihad Kalba have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Jazira's form line: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W. It's still early in the season for Al-Jazira, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Jazira are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ittihad Kalba are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Jazira are on 2.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Al-Jazira's attacking output running into Al-Ittihad Kalba's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad Kalba have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Al-Jazira in 0%.
Defensively: Al-Jazira in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Early Season
Al-Jazira
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Al-Jazira have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Al-Ittihad Kalba or Al-Jazira been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Al-Jazira in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Sep 2023, when Al-Jazira won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's record when hosting Al-Jazira specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al-Ittihad Kalba
4
Draws
4
Al-Jazira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 2, Al-Jazira have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Al-Jazira 2-1 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira?
Al-Jazira have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad Kalba home games / Al-Jazira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad Kalba play Al-Jazira?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's recent matches and 0% of Al-Jazira's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's recent games and 0% of Al-Jazira's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Al-Jazira in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Ittihad Kalba's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira finished level at 0-0 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 0.80 xG and Al-Jazira 1.24 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Ittihad Kalba fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Al-Jazira landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Al-Jazira attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 24% | Draw 29% | Al-Jazira 47%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 0%, Al-Jazira 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Jazira arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Ittihad Kalba conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Jazira managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.