Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-2 Al Bataeh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Bataeh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Bataeh make the trip to Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium to face Al-Ittihad Kalba in Pro League, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Friday 2 September 2022 at 14:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ittihad Kalba have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al-Ittihad Kalba haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.89 xG and Al Bataeh 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.000 / defence 1.069 | Al Bataeh attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.638 / away 1.362. Data: 26 Al-Ittihad Kalba games / 0 Al Bataeh games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 53% | Draw 22% | Al Bataeh 25%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.89 | Draw 4.55 | Al Bataeh 4.00. Al-Ittihad Kalba hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad Kalba at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad Kalba if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Bataeh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 2 Sep 2022, 14:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 53% | Draw 22% | Al Bataeh 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 60% | xG Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.89 / Al Bataeh 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.000 / def 1.069 | Al Bataeh attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.638 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad Kalba (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Al Bataeh xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Bataeh kick off?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Bataeh kicked off at 14:45 on Friday 2 September 2022 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Bataeh?
Al-Ittihad Kalba 0 - 2 Al Bataeh.
Where is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Bataeh being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Bataeh part of?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Bataeh is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Bataeh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad Kalba a 53% chance of winning, Al Bataeh a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad Kalba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Bataeh?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Bataeh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Bataeh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Bataeh?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Bataeh in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack rating (1.00) and Al Bataeh's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.89 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Bataeh's attack (0.85x) against Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 26/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad Kalba Win
53%
1.90
22%
4.45
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Total xG
3.12
1.24
Al Bataeh xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
15%
6.59
Win to Nil
15%
6.57
4%
26.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.3 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Bataeh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Bataeh expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 1.24 for Al Bataeh, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Bataeh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Pre-Season
Al Bataeh
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad Kalba won 3-0 on 5 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al Bataeh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Al-Ittihad Kalba
4
Draws
3
Al Bataeh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Bataeh?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 1, Al Bataeh have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Bataeh last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Al Bataeh 2-2 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Bataeh?
Al Bataeh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad Kalba home games / Al Bataeh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Al Bataeh cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al-Ittihad Kalba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Bataeh beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-2 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.89 xG and Al Bataeh 1.24 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al-Ittihad Kalba fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.00 / defence 1.07 against Al Bataeh attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 26/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 53% | Draw 22% | Al Bataeh 25%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Al Bataeh win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.