Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-2 Al Bataeh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Bataeh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Bataeh make the trip to Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium to face Al-Ittihad Kalba in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Thursday 29 February 2024 at 16:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ittihad Kalba have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 games at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Bataeh (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al Bataeh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Bataeh's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, 1.20 for Al Bataeh — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Ittihad Kalba have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Al Bataeh in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Al-Ittihad Kalba 0W, Al Bataeh 1W, 2D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al-Ittihad Kalba goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Al Bataeh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad Kalba 59% and Al Bataeh 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad Kalba 62% | Al Bataeh 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.47 xG and Al Bataeh 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.874 / defence 1.016 | Al Bataeh attack 0.850 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.583 / away 1.648. Data: 40 Al-Ittihad Kalba games / 39 Al Bataeh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 38% | Draw 26% | Al Bataeh 36%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Al Bataeh 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad Kalba at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad Kalba if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad Kalba 70% | Al Bataeh 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Bataeh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 29 Feb 2024, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 38% | Draw 26% | Al Bataeh 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.47 / Al Bataeh 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.874 / def 1.016 | Al Bataeh attack 0.850 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.583 / away 1.648 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad Kalba (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Al Bataeh xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Bataeh kick off?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Bataeh kicked off at 16:15 on Thursday 29 February 2024 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Bataeh?
Al-Ittihad Kalba 1 - 2 Al Bataeh.
Where is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Bataeh being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Bataeh part of?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Bataeh is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Bataeh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad Kalba a 38% chance of winning, Al Bataeh a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad Kalba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Bataeh?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Bataeh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Bataeh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Bataeh?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Ittihad Kalba 0W | Draws 2 | Al Bataeh 1W.
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Bataeh in?
Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Al Bataeh (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack rating (0.87) and Al Bataeh's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Bataeh's attack (0.85x) against Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 40/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad Kalba Win
38%
2.63
26%
3.82
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Total xG
2.90
1.42
Al Bataeh xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
9%
10.91
8%
12.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.9 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.6 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Bataeh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Bataeh expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 1.42 for Al Bataeh, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Bataeh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 39 outings, Al-Ittihad Kalba have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 12W 10D 17L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Bataeh's form line: 9W 10D 20L from 39 games, 0.95 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L. The sample for Al Bataeh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Al-Ittihad Kalba against 0.95 for Al Bataeh. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Ittihad Kalba have posted 1.11 PPG from 18 outings (5W 5D 8L).
On the road, Al Bataeh have gone 6W 2D 10L from 18 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Ittihad Kalba are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Al Bataeh are on 1.21 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Bataeh in 62%.
Last 39 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
Al Bataeh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Bataeh in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 12W 10D 17L in their last 39 games (1.18 PPG), while Al Bataeh have gone 9W 10D 20L in their last 39 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home or Al Bataeh away?
Al-Ittihad Kalba's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home: 1.11 PPG; Al Bataeh away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad Kalba won 3-0 on 5 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al Bataeh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Al-Ittihad Kalba
4
Draws
3
Al Bataeh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Bataeh?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 1, Al Bataeh have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Bataeh last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Al Bataeh 2-2 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Bataeh?
Al Bataeh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad Kalba 67%, Al Bataeh 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 72% for Al Bataeh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad Kalba have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad Kalba home games / Al Bataeh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad Kalba play Al Bataeh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's games and 56% of Al Bataeh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Bataeh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's matches and 72% of Al Bataeh's.
Do Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Bataeh tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Al Bataeh in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Bataeh defy the odds to beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Bataeh beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-2 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.47 xG and Al Bataeh 1.42 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.87 / defence 1.02 against Al Bataeh attack 0.85 / defence 1.07, drawn from 40/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 38% | Draw 26% | Al Bataeh 36%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Al Bataeh win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 62%, Al Bataeh 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (39 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Al Bataeh's trading profile (39 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.18 PPG, Al Bataeh 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Bataeh win broke the near-deadlock. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.