Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-2 Ajman – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Ittihad Kalba host Ajman at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 19 April 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ittihad Kalba — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's home record at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ajman stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajman's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Ittihad Kalba at 1.20 PPG versus Ajman's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Ittihad Kalba register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Ajman in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al-Ittihad Kalba, 2 for Ajman and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2022, ended 0–1 with Ajman winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ittihad Kalba in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Ajman in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad Kalba 58% versus Ajman 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad Kalba 52% | Ajman 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.80 xG and Ajman 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.975 / defence 1.090 | Ajman attack 0.925 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.452. Ajman bring a strong defensive rating of 1.209 — this is suppressing Al-Ittihad Kalba's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Al-Ittihad Kalba games / 48 Ajman games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 46% | Draw 23% | Ajman 32%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.17 | Draw 4.35 | Ajman 3.12. Al-Ittihad Kalba hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad Kalba at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad Kalba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.26 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% | Ajman 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 19 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 46% | Draw 23% | Ajman 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.80 / Ajman 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.975 / def 1.090 | Ajman attack 0.925 / def 1.209 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.452 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad Kalba (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Ajman xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman kick off?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 19 April 2023 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman?
Al-Ittihad Kalba 0 - 2 Ajman.
Where is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman part of?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad Kalba a 46% chance of winning, Ajman a 32% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad Kalba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Ittihad Kalba 0W | Draws 1 | Ajman 2W.
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman in?
Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Ajman (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack at 0.97x the league average against Ajman's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ajman's attack versus Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad Kalba Win
46%
2.19
23%
4.38
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Total xG
3.26
1.46
Ajman xG
2.19
46%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
17%
6.03
Win to Nil
11%
9.48
5%
19.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.1 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 1.46 for Ajman, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ittihad Kalba's recent record stands at 14W 15D 19L from 48 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajman, meanwhile, have gone 21W 10D 17L across 48 games — 1.52 PPG, with W-D-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ittihad Kalba on 1.19 PPG, Ajman on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Ittihad Kalba have managed 8W 7D 9L from 24 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ajman's away record stands at 10W 3D 11L across 24 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ittihad Kalba are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Ajman are on 1.46 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
Ajman
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 14W 15D 19L in their last 48 games (1.19 PPG), while Ajman have gone 21W 10D 17L in their last 48 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home or Ajman away?
Ajman's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home: 1.29 PPG; Ajman away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Ittihad Kalba's record when hosting Ajman specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Ittihad Kalba
1
Draws
5
Ajman
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 4, Ajman have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-3 Ajman.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman?
Ajman have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad Kalba 62%, Ajman 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Al-Ittihad Kalba) and 58% (Ajman). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad Kalba have failed to score in 29% of games; Ajman in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad Kalba home games / Ajman away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad Kalba play Ajman?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's recent matches and 46% of Ajman's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's matches and 58% of Ajman's.
Do Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ajman in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ajman cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al-Ittihad Kalba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajman beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-2 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.80 xG and Ajman 1.46 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al-Ittihad Kalba fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.97 / defence 1.09 against Ajman attack 0.93 / defence 1.21, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 46% | Draw 23% | Ajman 32%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Ajman win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 52%, Ajman 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ajman's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.19 PPG, Ajman 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ajman win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Ajman (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.