Al-Dhafra 3-2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al-Dhafra at 37%, yet in-form Shabab Al Ahli Dubai provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Dhafra vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Shabab Al Ahli Dubai travel to Al Dhafra Stadium to take on Al-Dhafra. The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 October 2022, 14:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Dhafra stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Dhafra have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Dhafra at Al Dhafra Stadium this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's 1.80 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Al-Dhafra's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al-Dhafra, 2 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2022, ended 0–1 with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Al-Dhafra trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Dhafra 48% versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Dhafra 45% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Dhafra 1.29 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Dhafra attack 0.946 / defence 0.967 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.994 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.256. Data: 29 Al-Dhafra games / 29 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 37% | Draw 31% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 33%. Fair-value odds: Al-Dhafra 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Dhafra as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Dhafra offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Dhafra 50% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (29 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Dhafra vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Al Dhafra Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 14:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 37% | Draw 31% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Al-Dhafra 1.29 / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Dhafra attack 0.946 / def 0.967 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.994 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.492 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Al-Dhafra (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Al-Dhafra xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Dhafra vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kick off?
Al-Dhafra vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kicked off at 14:15 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Al Dhafra Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Dhafra vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Al-Dhafra 3 - 2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Where is Al-Dhafra vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai being played?
The match is being played at Al Dhafra Stadium.
What competition is Al-Dhafra vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai part of?
Al-Dhafra vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Dhafra vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our statistical model gives Al-Dhafra a 37% chance of winning, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Al-Dhafra the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Dhafra vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al-Dhafra and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Dhafra vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Dhafra 0W | Draws 0 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2W.
What form are Al-Dhafra and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in?
Al-Dhafra (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Dhafra's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack versus Al-Dhafra's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (29/29 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Dhafra Win
37%
2.73
31%
3.26
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Al-Dhafra xG
Total xG
2.50
1.21
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
11%
9.14
9%
11.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.8 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Dhafra vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Al-Dhafra and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Al-Dhafra and 1.21 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Dhafra vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Dhafra's recent record stands at 5W 8D 16L from 29 games, a 0.79 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, meanwhile, have gone 14W 6D 9L across 29 games — 1.66 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai by 0.87 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Dhafra heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Dhafra have managed 3W 5D 6L from 14 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record stands at 4W 5D 5L across 14 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.66 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's season.
The Goals Picture
Al-Dhafra are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are on 1.28 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 62%.
Last 29 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Dhafra
Early Season
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Dhafra and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in coming into this match?
Al-Dhafra have gone 5W 8D 16L in their last 29 games (0.79 PPG), while Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 14W 6D 9L in their last 29 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Dhafra at home or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Dhafra at home: 1.00 PPG; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Dhafra and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Feb 2026, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Dhafra's record when hosting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al-Dhafra
0
Draws
5
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Dhafra have won 1, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Dhafra and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Al-Dhafra 0-5 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Who has won more matches between Al-Dhafra and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Dhafra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Dhafra 57%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Dhafra) and 29% (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai).
On the defensive side: Al-Dhafra have failed to score in 36% of games; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Dhafra home games / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Dhafra play Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Al-Dhafra's recent matches and 50% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Dhafra vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Dhafra's recent games and 29% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Dhafra and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai tend to score early?
Al-Dhafra have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Dhafra edge out Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Dhafra beat Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3-2 at Al Dhafra Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Dhafra 1.29 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.21 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al-Dhafra beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Dhafra attack 0.95 / defence 0.97 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.99 / defence 0.91, drawn from 29/29 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Dhafra 37% | Draw 31% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 33%, with Al-Dhafra to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Dhafra 45%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 0.79. Form was overturned, with Al-Dhafra winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.