Al-Dhafra 1-3 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khorfakkan at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Dhafra vs Khorfakkan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 23 as Al-Dhafra welcome Khorfakkan to Al Dhafra Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 18 April 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Dhafra — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al Dhafra Stadium, Al-Dhafra have gone 2W 0D 8L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Khorfakkan stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khorfakkan away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Dhafra at 0.40 PPG versus Khorfakkan's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al-Dhafra, 2 for Khorfakkan and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2022, ended 3–4 with Khorfakkan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Dhafra in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Khorfakkan in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Dhafra 50% versus Khorfakkan 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Dhafra 50% | Khorfakkan 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Dhafra 1.34 xG and Khorfakkan 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Dhafra attack 0.796 / defence 1.382 | Khorfakkan attack 0.730 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.439. Al-Dhafra's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 1.34 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 48 Al-Dhafra games / 48 Khorfakkan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 35% | Draw 25% | Khorfakkan 40%. Fair-value odds: Al-Dhafra 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | Khorfakkan 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Khorfakkan at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Khorfakkan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Dhafra 60% | Khorfakkan 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Dhafra vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Al Dhafra Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 18 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 35% | Draw 25% | Khorfakkan 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Al-Dhafra 1.34 / Khorfakkan 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Dhafra attack 0.796 / def 1.382 | Khorfakkan attack 0.730 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.521 / away 1.439 • Poisson stance: Khorfakkan (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Al-Dhafra xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Khorfakkan xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Dhafra vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Al-Dhafra vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 18 April 2023 at Al Dhafra Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Dhafra vs Khorfakkan?
Al-Dhafra 1 - 3 Khorfakkan.
Where is Al-Dhafra vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Al Dhafra Stadium.
What competition is Al-Dhafra vs Khorfakkan part of?
Al-Dhafra vs Khorfakkan is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Dhafra vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Al-Dhafra a 35% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Khorfakkan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Dhafra vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al-Dhafra and Khorfakkan will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Dhafra vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Khorfakkan?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Dhafra 1W | Draws 0 | Khorfakkan 2W.
What form are Al-Dhafra and Khorfakkan in?
Al-Dhafra (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Khorfakkan (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Dhafra's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Khorfakkan's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Khorfakkan's attack versus Al-Dhafra's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khorfakkan Win
35%
2.88
25%
3.96
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Al-Dhafra xG
Total xG
2.79
1.45
Khorfakkan xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
8%
12.30
10%
9.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.9 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Dhafra vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Al-Dhafra and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Al-Dhafra and 1.45 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Dhafra vs Khorfakkan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Dhafra come into this having played 48 games, going 7W 9D 32L for 0.62 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Al-Dhafra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Khorfakkan sit at 1.02 PPG from 48 outings (13W 10D 25L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Khorfakkan carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Al-Dhafra — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Dhafra's home form reads 5W 5D 14L across 24 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Khorfakkan have taken 0.50 points per game from 24 outings (2W 6D 16L). That's a step down from their 1.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Khorfakkan's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Dhafra are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.27 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Dhafra
Blended
Khorfakkan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Dhafra and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Al-Dhafra have gone 7W 9D 32L in their last 48 games (0.62 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 13W 10D 25L in their last 48 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Dhafra at home or Khorfakkan away?
Al-Dhafra's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Dhafra at home: 0.83 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Sep 2021, when Khorfakkan won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Dhafra's record when hosting Khorfakkan specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al-Dhafra
0
Draws
4
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Khorfakkan?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Dhafra have won 2, Khorfakkan have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Dhafra and Khorfakkan last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Al-Dhafra 2-3 Khorfakkan.
Who has won more matches between Al-Dhafra and Khorfakkan?
Khorfakkan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Dhafra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Dhafra 58%, Khorfakkan 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Al-Dhafra and 71% for Khorfakkan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Dhafra have failed to score in 38% of games; Khorfakkan in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Dhafra home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Dhafra play Khorfakkan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Al-Dhafra's games and 62% of Khorfakkan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Dhafra vs Khorfakkan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Al-Dhafra's matches and 71% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Al-Dhafra and Khorfakkan tend to score early?
Al-Dhafra have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Khorfakkan in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Khorfakkan cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al-Dhafra.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khorfakkan beat Al-Dhafra 1-3 at Al Dhafra Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Dhafra 1.34 xG and Khorfakkan 1.45 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Khorfakkan outscored their 1.45 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Dhafra attack 0.80 / defence 1.38 against Khorfakkan attack 0.73 / defence 1.11, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Dhafra 35% | Draw 25% | Khorfakkan 40%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Dhafra 50%, Khorfakkan 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Khorfakkan arrived the stronger side — 1.02 PPG against 0.62. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.