Al-Dhafra 1-2 Al Bataeh – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al-Dhafra at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Dhafra vs Al Bataeh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Dhafra host Al Bataeh at Al Dhafra Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Dhafra stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Al-Dhafra have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Al Dhafra Stadium, Al-Dhafra have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Al-Dhafra are significantly better at Al Dhafra Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Bataeh have recorded 2W 0D 3L from 5 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Al Bataeh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Bataeh away from home this season: 2W 0D 1L from 3 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 3 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Dhafra 1.00 PPG, Al Bataeh 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Al-Dhafra trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%; they fail to score in 60% of games.
Al Bataeh trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al-Dhafra 40% | Al Bataeh 20%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Dhafra 60% | Al Bataeh 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Dhafra 1.75 xG and Al Bataeh 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Dhafra attack 1.040 / defence 1.065 | Al Bataeh attack 0.816 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.665 / away 1.213. Data: 31 Al-Dhafra games / 5 Al Bataeh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 52% | Draw 27% | Al Bataeh 21%. Fair-value odds: Al-Dhafra 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Al Bataeh 4.76. Al-Dhafra hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Dhafra are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Dhafra offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. This conflicts with form data: Al-Dhafra 50% | Al Bataeh 0% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Dhafra vs Al Bataeh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Al Dhafra Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 52% | Draw 27% | Al Bataeh 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Al-Dhafra 1.75 / Al Bataeh 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Dhafra attack 1.040 / def 1.065 | Al Bataeh attack 0.816 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.665 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Al-Dhafra (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Al-Dhafra xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Al Bataeh xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Dhafra vs Al Bataeh kick off?
Al-Dhafra vs Al Bataeh kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Al Dhafra Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Dhafra vs Al Bataeh?
Al-Dhafra 1 - 2 Al Bataeh.
Where is Al-Dhafra vs Al Bataeh being played?
The match is being played at Al Dhafra Stadium.
What competition is Al-Dhafra vs Al Bataeh part of?
Al-Dhafra vs Al Bataeh is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Dhafra vs Al Bataeh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Dhafra a 52% chance of winning, Al Bataeh a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Dhafra the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Dhafra vs Al Bataeh?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al-Dhafra and Al Bataeh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Dhafra vs Al Bataeh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Al Bataeh?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Dhafra and Al Bataeh in?
Al-Dhafra (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Al Bataeh (all comps): 2W-0D-3L in 5 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Dhafra's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Al Bataeh's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. The same calculation in reverse, Al Bataeh's attack versus Al-Dhafra's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Dhafra Win
52%
1.91
27%
3.75
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Al-Dhafra xG
Total xG
2.81
1.05
Al Bataeh xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
17%
5.78
Win to Nil
18%
5.49
4%
27.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.1 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Dhafra vs Al Bataeh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Al-Dhafra and Al Bataeh expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Al-Dhafra and 1.05 for Al Bataeh, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Dhafra vs Al Bataeh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 5 outings, Al-Dhafra have picked up 0.80 PPG on a 1W 1D 3L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Bataeh's form line: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games, 1.20 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Al Bataeh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Dhafra on 0.80 PPG, Al Bataeh on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Dhafra are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 3.20 conceded per game recently; Al Bataeh are on 0.80 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Bataeh in 20%.
Defensively: Al Bataeh in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Dhafra
Early Season
Al Bataeh
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Dhafra and Al Bataeh in coming into this match?
Al-Dhafra have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 games (0.80 PPG), while Al Bataeh have gone 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 (1.20 PPG).
Have Al-Dhafra or Al Bataeh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Dhafra have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Al Bataeh in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Dhafra's record when hosting Al Bataeh specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al-Dhafra
2
Draws
1
Al Bataeh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Al Bataeh?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Dhafra have won 1, Al Bataeh have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Dhafra and Al Bataeh last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Al Bataeh 1-1 Al-Dhafra.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Dhafra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al-Dhafra 40% BTTS, Al Bataeh 20%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Al-Dhafra and 60% for Al Bataeh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Bataeh in 40%; Al-Dhafra have failed to score in 60% of games; Al Bataeh in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Dhafra home games / Al Bataeh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Dhafra play Al Bataeh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Al-Dhafra's recent matches and 20% of Al Bataeh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Dhafra vs Al Bataeh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Al-Dhafra's matches and 60% of Al Bataeh's.
Do Al-Dhafra and Al Bataeh tend to score early?
Al-Dhafra have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Al Bataeh in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Bataeh defy the odds to beat Al-Dhafra 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Bataeh beat Al-Dhafra 1-2 at Al Dhafra Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Dhafra 1.75 xG and Al Bataeh 1.05 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al Bataeh outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Dhafra attack 1.04 / defence 1.06 against Al Bataeh attack 0.82 / defence 1.01, drawn from 31/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Dhafra 52% | Draw 27% | Al Bataeh 21%, with Al-Dhafra to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Al Bataeh win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Dhafra 60%, Al Bataeh 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Al Bataeh's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Dhafra 0.80 PPG, Al Bataeh 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Bataeh win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Dhafra conceded 2 against a 3.20 average — tighter than their form line. Al Bataeh scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.