Al Bataeh 1-3 Al Wahda FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al Wahda FC (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Bataeh face Al Wahda FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Al Wahda FC travel to Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium to take on Al Bataeh. The game is scheduled for Friday 17 October 2025, 14:05 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Bataeh — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al Bataeh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Bataeh have posted 3W 3D 4L at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Wahda FC stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Al Wahda FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Wahda FC have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al Wahda FC — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Al Bataeh have won 2, Al Wahda FC 4, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2025, ended 1–3 with Al Wahda FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al Bataeh in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Al Wahda FC in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Bataeh 61% versus Al Wahda FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Bataeh 58% | Al Wahda FC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Bataeh 0.79 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Bataeh attack 0.879 / defence 1.021 | Al Wahda FC attack 0.993 / defence 0.697. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.258. Al Wahda FC's defence strength of 0.697 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 31 Al Bataeh games / 31 Al Wahda FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Bataeh 23% | Draw 29% | Al Wahda FC 48%. Fair-value odds: Al Bataeh 4.35 | Draw 3.45 | Al Wahda FC 2.08. Al Wahda FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Wahda FC are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates are neutral: Al Bataeh 60% | Al Wahda FC 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 17 Oct 2025, 14:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Bataeh 23% | Draw 29% | Al Wahda FC 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 39% | xG Al Bataeh 0.79 / Al Wahda FC 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Al Bataeh attack 0.879 / def 1.021 | Al Wahda FC attack 0.993 / def 0.697 | league avg home 1.294 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Al Bataeh xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Al Wahda FC xG
39%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC kick off?
Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC kicked off at 14:05 on Friday 17 October 2025 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC?
Al Bataeh 1 - 3 Al Wahda FC.
Where is Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC being played?
The match is being played at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What competition is Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC part of?
Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Bataeh a 23% chance of winning, Al Wahda FC a 48% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Al Bataeh and Al Wahda FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Al Wahda FC?
Record (6 meetings): Al Bataeh 2W | Draws 0 | Al Wahda FC 4W.
What form are Al Bataeh and Al Wahda FC in?
Al Bataeh (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Al Wahda FC (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Bataeh's attack rating (0.88) and Al Wahda FC's defence rating (0.70), the model arrives at 0.79 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wahda FC's attack versus Al Bataeh's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.4%), 0-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
23%
4.31
29%
3.44
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Al Bataeh xG
Total xG
2.07
1.27
Al Wahda FC xG
4.31
23%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.53
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
45%
2.21
Win to Nil
6%
15.42
22%
4.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 16.1 | 10.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.8 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Al Bataeh and Al Wahda FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Al Bataeh and 1.27 for Al Wahda FC, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Bataeh come into this having played 31 games, going 8W 6D 17L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Al Bataeh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Wahda FC sit at 1.90 PPG from 31 outings (16W 11D 4L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Wahda FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.93 PPG clear of Al Bataeh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al Bataeh's home form reads 3W 4D 8L across 15 games on their own ground, a 0.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Wahda FC have taken 1.73 points per game from 15 outings (7W 5D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wahda FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Bataeh are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Al Wahda FC are on 1.90 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Bataeh have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al Wahda FC in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Bataeh
Early Season
Al Wahda FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Bataeh and Al Wahda FC in coming into this match?
Al Bataeh have gone 8W 6D 17L in their last 31 games (0.97 PPG), while Al Wahda FC have gone 16W 11D 4L in their last 31 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Bataeh at home or Al Wahda FC away?
Al Wahda FC's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Bataeh at home: 0.87 PPG; Al Wahda FC away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Al Bataeh or Al Wahda FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Bataeh have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Al Wahda FC in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Oct 2022, when Al Wahda FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Bataeh's record when hosting Al Wahda FC specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Al Bataeh
1
Draws
5
Al Wahda FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Al Wahda FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Bataeh have won 2, Al Wahda FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Bataeh and Al Wahda FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2026, when Al Wahda FC 2-2 Al Bataeh.
Who has won more matches between Al Bataeh and Al Wahda FC?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Bataeh 60%, Al Wahda FC 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Al Bataeh) and 40% (Al Wahda FC).
On the defensive side: Al Wahda FC in 53%; Al Bataeh have failed to score in 27% of games; Al Wahda FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Bataeh home games / Al Wahda FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Bataeh play Al Wahda FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Al Bataeh's recent matches and 40% of Al Wahda FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Al Bataeh's recent games and 40% of Al Wahda FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Bataeh and Al Wahda FC tend to score early?
Al Bataeh have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Al Wahda FC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Wahda FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al Bataeh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wahda FC beat Al Bataeh 1-3 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Bataeh 0.79 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.27 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al Wahda FC outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Bataeh attack 0.88 / defence 1.02 against Al Wahda FC attack 0.99 / defence 0.70, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Bataeh 23% | Draw 29% | Al Wahda FC 48%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Bataeh 58%, Al Wahda FC 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Bataeh's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 0.97. Form held, and they took the win. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.