Al Ain 1-0 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al Ain (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Ain face Sharjah FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Ain host Sharjah FC at Tahnoun Bin Mohamed Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 2 January 2026 at 15:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Ain stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al Ain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Ain's home record at Tahnoun Bin Mohamed Stadium: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tahnoun Bin Mohamed Stadium.
Sharjah FC — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sharjah FC's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al Ain are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Al Ain, 1 for Sharjah FC and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2025, ended 3–0 with Al Ain winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al Ain trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Sharjah FC trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Ain 56% versus Sharjah FC 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Ain 65% | Sharjah FC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Ain 1.88 xG and Sharjah FC 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Ain attack 1.301 / defence 0.687 | Sharjah FC attack 0.992 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.341. Al Ain carry an above-average attack strength of 1.301 — their λ of 1.88 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al Ain's defence rating of 0.687 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 36 Al Ain games / 34 Sharjah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Ain 60% | Draw 22% | Sharjah FC 18%. Fair-value odds: Al Ain 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Sharjah FC 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Al Ain (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Ain as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Ain 50% | Sharjah FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Ain vs Sharjah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Tahnoun Bin Mohamed Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 2 Jan 2026, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Ain 60% | Draw 22% | Sharjah FC 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 51% | xG Al Ain 1.88 / Sharjah FC 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Al Ain attack 1.301 / def 0.687 | Sharjah FC attack 0.992 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.294 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Al Ain (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Al Ain xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Sharjah FC xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Ain vs Sharjah FC kick off?
Al Ain vs Sharjah FC kicked off at 15:45 on Friday 2 January 2026 at Tahnoun Bin Mohamed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Ain vs Sharjah FC?
Al Ain 1 - 0 Sharjah FC.
Where is Al Ain vs Sharjah FC being played?
The match is being played at Tahnoun Bin Mohamed Stadium.
What competition is Al Ain vs Sharjah FC part of?
Al Ain vs Sharjah FC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Ain vs Sharjah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Ain a 60% chance of winning, Sharjah FC a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al Ain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Ain vs Sharjah FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al Ain and Sharjah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Ain vs Sharjah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Ain and Sharjah FC?
Record (8 meetings): Al Ain 3W | Draws 4 | Sharjah FC 1W.
What form are Al Ain and Sharjah FC in?
Al Ain (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Sharjah FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al Ain's attack at 1.30x the league average against Sharjah FC's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sharjah FC's attack versus Al Ain's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Ain Win
60%
1.66
22%
4.53
18%
5.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Al Ain xG
Total xG
2.80
0.91
Sharjah FC xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
5.61
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
15%
6.57
Win to Nil
24%
4.15
3%
36.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 10.5 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Ain vs Sharjah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Al Ain and Sharjah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Al Ain and 0.91 for Sharjah FC, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Ain vs Sharjah FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 34 outings, Al Ain have picked up 1.88 PPG on a 18W 10D 6L record — W-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al Ain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sharjah FC's form line: 18W 4D 12L from 34 games, 1.71 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Ain on 1.88 PPG, Sharjah FC on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Ain have posted 2.06 PPG from 17 outings (10W 5D 2L).
On the road, Sharjah FC have gone 8W 3D 6L from 17 away games — 1.59 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Ain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Ain are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Sharjah FC are on 1.56 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Al Ain have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Sharjah FC in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Ain
Blended
Sharjah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Ain and Sharjah FC in coming into this match?
Al Ain have gone 18W 10D 6L in their last 34 games (1.88 PPG), while Sharjah FC have gone 18W 4D 12L in their last 34 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Ain at home or Sharjah FC away?
Al Ain's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Ain at home: 2.06 PPG; Sharjah FC away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Al Ain or Sharjah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Ain have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Sharjah FC in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Ain and Sharjah FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Ain go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 May 2026, when Al Ain won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Ain's record when hosting Sharjah FC specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al Ain
4
Draws
1
Sharjah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Ain and Sharjah FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Ain have won 5, Sharjah FC have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Ain and Sharjah FC last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2026, when Sharjah FC 0-5 Al Ain.
Who has won more matches between Al Ain and Sharjah FC?
Al Ain have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Ain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Ain 53%, Sharjah FC 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Al Ain) and 59% (Sharjah FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Ain keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Ain home games / Sharjah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Ain play Sharjah FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Al Ain's games and 59% of Sharjah FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Ain vs Sharjah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Al Ain's matches and 59% of Sharjah FC's.
Do Al Ain and Sharjah FC tend to score early?
Al Ain have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Sharjah FC in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Ain edge out Sharjah FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Ain beat Sharjah FC 1-0 at Tahnoun Bin Mohamed Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Ain 1.88 xG and Sharjah FC 0.91 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Ain fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Sharjah FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Ain attack 1.30 / defence 0.69 against Sharjah FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.12, drawn from 36/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Ain 60% | Draw 22% | Sharjah FC 18%, with Al Ain to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Ain 65%, Sharjah FC 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Ain's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sharjah FC's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Ain 1.88 PPG, Sharjah FC 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Ain win broke the near-deadlock. Al Ain (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.