Ajman 3-2 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sharjah FC at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ajman vs Sharjah FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 17 as Ajman welcome Sharjah FC to Ajman Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 20 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Ajman have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajman's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Ajman Stadium this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Sharjah FC — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sharjah FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Ajman) versus 1.30 (Sharjah FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour Sharjah FC, who boast 5 victories compared to 2 for Ajman.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Ajman winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sharjah FC have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Ajman trading profile (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sharjah FC trading profile (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajman 51% versus Sharjah FC 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajman 54% | Sharjah FC 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajman 0.90 xG and Sharjah FC 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajman attack 0.759 / defence 0.908 | Sharjah FC attack 1.083 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.286 / away 1.453. Ajman's attack strength of 0.759 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Ajman games / 41 Sharjah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajman 24% | Draw 27% | Sharjah FC 49%. Fair-value odds: Ajman 4.17 | Draw 3.70 | Sharjah FC 2.04. Sharjah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sharjah FC are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Ajman 40% | Sharjah FC 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajman vs Sharjah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Ajman Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 20 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajman 24% | Draw 27% | Sharjah FC 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG Ajman 0.90 / Sharjah FC 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Ajman attack 0.759 / def 0.908 | Sharjah FC attack 1.083 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.286 / away 1.453 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Ajman xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Sharjah FC xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajman vs Sharjah FC kick off?
Ajman vs Sharjah FC kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 20 February 2026 at Ajman Stadium.
What was the final score in Ajman vs Sharjah FC?
Ajman 3 - 2 Sharjah FC.
Where is Ajman vs Sharjah FC being played?
The match is being played at Ajman Stadium.
What competition is Ajman vs Sharjah FC part of?
Ajman vs Sharjah FC is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Ajman vs Sharjah FC?
Our statistical model gives Ajman a 24% chance of winning, Sharjah FC a 49% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajman vs Sharjah FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Ajman and Sharjah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ajman vs Sharjah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Sharjah FC?
Record (9 meetings): Ajman 2W | Draws 2 | Sharjah FC 5W.
What form are Ajman and Sharjah FC in?
Ajman (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Sharjah FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ajman's attack rating (0.76) and Sharjah FC's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sharjah FC's attack versus Ajman's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.3%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
24%
4.22
27%
3.71
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Ajman xG
Total xG
2.33
1.43
Sharjah FC xG
4.22
24%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
6%
17.61
20%
4.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 13.9 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajman vs Sharjah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Ajman and Sharjah FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Ajman and 1.43 for Sharjah FC, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajman vs Sharjah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ajman's recent record stands at 15W 6D 20L from 41 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sharjah FC, meanwhile, have gone 21W 5D 15L across 41 games — 1.66 PPG, with D-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sharjah FC by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ajman heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ajman have managed 8W 3D 10L from 21 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sharjah FC's away record stands at 10W 4D 7L across 21 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Ajman are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Sharjah FC are on 1.56 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Sharjah FC in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajman
Blended
Sharjah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajman and Sharjah FC in coming into this match?
Ajman have gone 15W 6D 20L in their last 41 games (1.24 PPG), while Sharjah FC have gone 21W 5D 15L in their last 41 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajman at home or Sharjah FC away?
Sharjah FC's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajman at home: 1.29 PPG; Sharjah FC away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Ajman or Sharjah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajman have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Sharjah FC in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Ajman have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2023, when Sharjah FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ajman's record when hosting Sharjah FC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Ajman
2
Draws
5
Sharjah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Sharjah FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ajman have won 3, Sharjah FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ajman and Sharjah FC last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Ajman 3-2 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Ajman and Sharjah FC?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Sharjah FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajman 62%, Sharjah FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Ajman) and 52% (Sharjah FC).
On the defensive side: Ajman have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajman home games / Sharjah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajman play Sharjah FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Ajman's games and 57% of Sharjah FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ajman vs Sharjah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Ajman's recent games and 52% of Sharjah FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajman and Sharjah FC tend to score early?
Ajman have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sharjah FC in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ajman defy the odds to beat Sharjah FC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajman beat Sharjah FC 3-2 at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 0.90 xG and Sharjah FC 1.43 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Ajman beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 0.76 / defence 0.91 against Sharjah FC attack 1.08 / defence 0.92, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajman 24% | Draw 27% | Sharjah FC 49%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Ajman win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 54%, Sharjah FC 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajman's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Sharjah FC's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Ajman winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ajman (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.