Ajman 1-1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ajman at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Shabab Al Ahli Dubai travel to Ajman Stadium to take on Ajman. The game is scheduled for Friday 11 February 2022, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Ajman have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajman's home record at Ajman Stadium: 3W 2D 2L from 7 Pro League appearances (1.57 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 1W 4D 2L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.57 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Ajman) versus 1.60 (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Ajman, 1 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Ajman trading profile (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai trading profile (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajman 36% versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ajman 36% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajman 1.03 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajman attack 0.739 / defence 1.046 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.686 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 1.136 / away 1.212. Ajman's attack strength of 0.739 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai bring a strong defensive rating of 1.230 — this is suppressing Ajman's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Ajman games / 14 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajman 38% | Draw 32% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 30%. Fair-value odds: Ajman 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ajman are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ajman offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.90 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Ajman 43% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 43% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Ajman Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 11 Feb 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajman 38% | Draw 32% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Ajman 1.03 / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Ajman attack 0.739 / def 1.046 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.686 / def 1.230 | league avg home 1.136 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Ajman (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Ajman xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kick off?
Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 11 February 2022 at Ajman Stadium.
What was the final score in Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Ajman 1 - 1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Where is Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai being played?
The match is being played at Ajman Stadium.
What competition is Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai part of?
Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our statistical model gives Ajman a 38% chance of winning, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Ajman the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Ajman and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will score (BTTS).
Will Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Record (1 meetings): Ajman 0W | Draws 0 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1W.
What form are Ajman and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in?
Ajman (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ajman's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack versus Ajman's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajman Win
38%
2.60
32%
3.15
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Ajman xG
Total xG
1.90
0.87
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.67
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
11%
9.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 13.0 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Ajman and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Ajman and 0.87 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ajman's recent record stands at 5W 3D 6L from 14 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, meanwhile, have gone 7W 5D 2L across 14 games — 1.86 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ajman heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ajman have managed 3W 2D 2L from 7 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record stands at 1W 4D 2L across 7 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajman come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ajman are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are on 1.29 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Ajman have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajman
Blended
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajman and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in coming into this match?
Ajman have gone 5W 3D 6L in their last 14 games (1.29 PPG), while Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 7W 5D 2L in their last 14 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajman at home or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away?
Ajman's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajman at home: 1.57 PPG; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Ajman or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajman have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won the last 8 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Aug 2023, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ajman's record when hosting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Ajman
1
Draws
9
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
From 10 meetings on record, Ajman have won 0, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ajman and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2026, when Ajman 0-1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Who has won more matches between Ajman and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai tend to start slowly — only 29% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajman 43%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 43% for Ajman and 14% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
On the defensive side: Ajman keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 43%; Ajman have failed to score in 29% of games; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajman home games / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajman play Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Ajman's recent matches and 43% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Ajman's recent games and 14% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajman and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai tend to score early?
Ajman have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 29% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ajman and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 15, as Ajman and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 1.03 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0.87 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 0.74 / defence 1.05 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.69 / defence 1.23, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajman 38% | Draw 32% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 30%, with Ajman to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 36%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajman's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.