Ajman 2-1 Al-Jazira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ajman at 38%, yet in-form Al-Jazira provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ajman vs Al-Jazira fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ajman Stadium plays host to Ajman versus Al-Jazira in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Tuesday 2 November 2021 at 16:15 UTC.
Current Form
Ajman's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 2D 3L from 8 games (1.38 PPG). Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.12 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Ajman Stadium, Ajman have gone 2W 1D 1L this season (4 games, 1.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ajman Stadium.
Al-Jazira (all games): 5W 1D 2L across 8 Pro League outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.88. 4 clean sheets from 8 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Jazira away from home this season: 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Al-Jazira arrive in superior form — a 0.62 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.38) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Ajman half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games.
Al-Jazira half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajman 38% versus Al-Jazira 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ajman 25% | Al-Jazira 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajman 1.22 xG and Al-Jazira 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajman attack 0.960 / defence 1.153 | Al-Jazira attack 0.731 / defence 1.223. League average goals — home 1.036 / away 1.239. Al-Jazira bring a strong defensive rating of 1.223 — this is suppressing Ajman's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Ajman games / 8 Al-Jazira games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajman 38% | Draw 33% | Al-Jazira 29%. Fair-value odds: Ajman 2.63 | Draw 3.03 | Al-Jazira 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ajman as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Jazira (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ajman if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ajman 50% | Al-Jazira 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajman vs Al-Jazira | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Ajman Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 Nov 2021, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajman 38% | Draw 33% | Al-Jazira 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 48% | xG Ajman 1.22 / Al-Jazira 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Ajman attack 0.960 / def 1.153 | Al-Jazira attack 0.731 / def 1.223 | league avg home 1.036 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Ajman (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Ajman xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Al-Jazira xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajman vs Al-Jazira kick off?
Ajman vs Al-Jazira kicked off at 16:15 on Tuesday 2 November 2021 at Ajman Stadium.
What was the final score in Ajman vs Al-Jazira?
Ajman 2 - 1 Al-Jazira.
Where is Ajman vs Al-Jazira being played?
The match is being played at Ajman Stadium.
What competition is Ajman vs Al-Jazira part of?
Ajman vs Al-Jazira is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Ajman vs Al-Jazira?
Our statistical model gives Ajman a 38% chance of winning, Al-Jazira a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Ajman the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajman vs Al-Jazira?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Ajman and Al-Jazira will score (BTTS).
Will Ajman vs Al-Jazira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Al-Jazira?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ajman and Al-Jazira in?
Ajman (all comps): 3W-2D-3L in 8 | 1.38 PPG | GF 1.12 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Al-Jazira (all comps): 5W-1D-2L in 8 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.88 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ajman's attack rating (0.96) and Al-Jazira's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Jazira's attack (0.73x) against Ajman's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajman Win
38%
2.66
33%
3.00
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Ajman xG
Total xG
2.26
1.04
Al-Jazira xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
13%
7.54
9%
11.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 10.9 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajman vs Al-Jazira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Ajman and Al-Jazira expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Ajman and 1.04 for Al-Jazira, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajman vs Al-Jazira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 8 outings, Ajman have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 3W 2D 3L record — D-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Jazira's form line: 5W 1D 2L from 8 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Al-Jazira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Jazira are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ajman.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ajman have posted 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L).
On the road, Al-Jazira have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Jazira's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajman come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ajman are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Jazira are on 1.50 scored and 0.88 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Ajman have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Al-Jazira in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajman
Blended
Al-Jazira
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajman and Al-Jazira in coming into this match?
Ajman have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 games (1.38 PPG), while Al-Jazira have gone 5W 1D 2L in their last 8 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajman at home or Al-Jazira away?
Ajman's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajman at home: 1.33 PPG; Al-Jazira away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Ajman or Al-Jazira been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajman have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Al-Jazira in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ajman won 1-5 on 8 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ajman have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Jazira — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ajman
3
Draws
3
Al-Jazira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Al-Jazira?
From 10 meetings on record, Ajman have won 4, Al-Jazira have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ajman and Al-Jazira last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2026, when Ajman 1-1 Al-Jazira.
Who has won more matches between Ajman and Al-Jazira?
Ajman have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Ajman, 67% for Al-Jazira — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Ajman) and 67% (Al-Jazira).
On the defensive side: Ajman keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Jazira in 33%; Al-Jazira in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajman home games / Al-Jazira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajman play Al-Jazira?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Ajman's games and 67% of Al-Jazira's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ajman vs Al-Jazira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Ajman's recent games and 67% of Al-Jazira's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajman and Al-Jazira tend to score early?
Ajman have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Jazira in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ajman edge out Al-Jazira 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajman beat Al-Jazira 2-1 at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 1.22 xG and Al-Jazira 1.04 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against Al-Jazira attack 0.73 / defence 1.22, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajman 38% | Draw 33% | Al-Jazira 29%, with Ajman to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 25%, Al-Jazira 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajman's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Jazira's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Jazira arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.38. Form was overturned, with Ajman winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ajman (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.