Ajman 1-3 Al-Dhafra – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Ajman at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ajman vs Al-Dhafra encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Dhafra make the trip to Ajman Stadium to face Ajman in Pro League, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Friday 22 October 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Form
Ajman (all games): 3W 2D 1L across 6 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.83 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Ajman have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ajman at Ajman Stadium this season: 2W 1D 0L from 3 home games — 2.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ajman Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.83 — Ajman are significantly better at Ajman Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Dhafra's overall Pro League record this term: 0W 2D 4L from 6 games (0.33 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Al-Dhafra have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al-Dhafra have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 away fixtures this term (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Ajman. A 1.50 PPG lead over Al-Dhafra (1.83 vs 0.33) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Ajman — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Al-Dhafra — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajman 33% versus Al-Dhafra 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ajman 17% | Al-Dhafra 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajman 1.49 xG and Al-Dhafra 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajman attack 0.983 / defence 0.915 | Al-Dhafra attack 0.637 / defence 1.388. League average goals — home 1.094 / away 1.169. Al-Dhafra bring a strong defensive rating of 1.388 — this is suppressing Ajman's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Ajman games / 6 Al-Dhafra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajman 54% | Draw 32% | Al-Dhafra 14%. Fair-value odds: Ajman 1.85 | Draw 3.12 | Al-Dhafra 7.14. Ajman hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ajman are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ajman if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Ajman 33% | Al-Dhafra 33% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajman vs Al-Dhafra | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Ajman Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 22 Oct 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajman 54% | Draw 32% | Al-Dhafra 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 41% | xG Ajman 1.49 / Al-Dhafra 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Ajman attack 0.983 / def 0.915 | Al-Dhafra attack 0.637 / def 1.388 | league avg home 1.094 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Ajman (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Ajman xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Al-Dhafra xG
41%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajman vs Al-Dhafra kick off?
Ajman vs Al-Dhafra kicked off at 15:15 on Friday 22 October 2021 at Ajman Stadium.
What was the final score in Ajman vs Al-Dhafra?
Ajman 1 - 3 Al-Dhafra.
Where is Ajman vs Al-Dhafra being played?
The match is being played at Ajman Stadium.
What competition is Ajman vs Al-Dhafra part of?
Ajman vs Al-Dhafra is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Ajman vs Al-Dhafra?
Our statistical model gives Ajman a 54% chance of winning, Al-Dhafra a 14% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Ajman the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajman vs Al-Dhafra?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Ajman and Al-Dhafra will score (BTTS).
Will Ajman vs Al-Dhafra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Al-Dhafra?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ajman and Al-Dhafra in?
Ajman (all comps): 3W-2D-1L in 6 | 1.83 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Al-Dhafra (all comps): 0W-2D-4L in 6 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ajman's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Al-Dhafra's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — Al-Dhafra's attack (0.64x) against Ajman's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.68.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.1%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajman Win
54%
1.85
32%
3.15
14%
7.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Ajman xG
Total xG
2.17
0.68
Al-Dhafra xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
7.04
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
51%
1.98
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
27%
3.66
3%
31.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 7.7 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 11.6 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajman vs Al-Dhafra?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Ajman and Al-Dhafra expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Ajman and 0.68 for Al-Dhafra, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajman vs Al-Dhafra?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ajman come into this having played 6 games, going 3W 2D 1L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Ajman, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Dhafra sit at 0.33 PPG from 6 outings (0W 2D 4L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ajman carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Al-Dhafra — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Ajman's home form reads 2W 1D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.83 PPG overall — Ajman are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al-Dhafra have taken 0.33 points per game from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajman come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ajman are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Al-Dhafra are on 0.50 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Defensively: Ajman have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajman
Early Season
Al-Dhafra
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajman and Al-Dhafra in coming into this match?
Ajman have gone 3W 2D 1L in their last 6 games (1.83 PPG), while Al-Dhafra have gone 0W 2D 4L in their last 6 (0.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajman at home or Al-Dhafra away?
Ajman's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajman at home: 2.33 PPG; Al-Dhafra away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Ajman or Al-Dhafra been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajman have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Al-Dhafra in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Dhafra won 3-0 on 4 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ajman have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Dhafra — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Ajman
1
Draws
2
Al-Dhafra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Al-Dhafra?
From 6 meetings on record, Ajman have won 3, Al-Dhafra have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ajman and Al-Dhafra last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Al-Dhafra 0-1 Ajman.
Who has won more matches between Ajman and Al-Dhafra?
Ajman have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Dhafra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Ajman) and 33% (Al-Dhafra) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Ajman and 33% for Al-Dhafra.
On the defensive side: Ajman keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Al-Dhafra in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajman home games / Al-Dhafra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajman play Al-Dhafra?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Ajman's recent matches and 33% of Al-Dhafra's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajman vs Al-Dhafra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Ajman's recent games and 33% of Al-Dhafra's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajman and Al-Dhafra tend to score early?
Ajman have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Dhafra in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Dhafra cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Ajman.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Dhafra beat Ajman 1-3 at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 1.49 xG and Al-Dhafra 0.68 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Dhafra outscored their 0.68 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 0.98 / defence 0.92 against Al-Dhafra attack 0.64 / defence 1.39, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajman 54% | Draw 32% | Al-Dhafra 14%, with Ajman to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Al-Dhafra win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 17%, Al-Dhafra 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajman's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajman arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.33. Form was overturned, with Al-Dhafra winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ajman (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.