Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zorya Luhansk at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zorya Luhansk host FC Kharkiv at Slavutych-Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 May 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Zorya Luhansk — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Zorya Luhansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zorya Luhansk's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 2L across 9 games at Slavutych-Arena this term (2.11 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 0.44 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 9 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Slavutych-Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Kharkiv have recorded 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Kharkiv's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Zorya Luhansk have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Zorya Luhansk's 22% rate and FC Kharkiv's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Zorya Luhansk, 0 for FC Kharkiv and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 7.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2021, ended 6–1 with Zorya Luhansk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Zorya Luhansk in-play and half-time data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
FC Kharkiv in-play and half-time data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zorya Luhansk 50% versus FC Kharkiv 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zorya Luhansk 50% | FC Kharkiv 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zorya Luhansk 1.38 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zorya Luhansk attack 1.014 / defence 1.000 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.715 / defence 1.235. League average goals — home 1.101 / away 1.224. FC Kharkiv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.235 — this is suppressing Zorya Luhansk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Zorya Luhansk games / 18 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zorya Luhansk 49% | Draw 28% | FC Kharkiv 24%. Fair-value odds: Zorya Luhansk 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | FC Kharkiv 4.17. Zorya Luhansk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zorya Luhansk are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zorya Luhansk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Zorya Luhansk 22% | FC Kharkiv 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Slavutych-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zorya Luhansk 49% | Draw 28% | FC Kharkiv 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Zorya Luhansk 1.38 / FC Kharkiv 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Zorya Luhansk attack 1.014 / def 1.000 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.715 / def 1.235 | league avg home 1.101 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Zorya Luhansk (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Zorya Luhansk xG
Expected Goals
0.88
FC Kharkiv xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Slavutych-Arena.
Where is Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Slavutych-Arena.
What competition is Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Zorya Luhansk a 49% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Zorya Luhansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv?
Record (1 meetings): Zorya Luhansk 1W | Draws 0 | FC Kharkiv 0W.
What form are Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv in?
Zorya Luhansk (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Zorya Luhansk's attack rating (1.01) and FC Kharkiv's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Kharkiv's attack versus Zorya Luhansk's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zorya Luhansk Win
49%
2.06
28%
3.63
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Zorya Luhansk xG
Total xG
2.25
0.88
FC Kharkiv xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
20%
4.93
6%
16.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 12.7 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Zorya Luhansk and 0.88 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zorya Luhansk's recent record stands at 11W 3D 4L from 18 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Zorya Luhansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Kharkiv, meanwhile, have gone 6W 1D 11L across 18 games — 1.06 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zorya Luhansk by 0.94 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Kharkiv heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Zorya Luhansk have managed 6W 1D 2L from 9 games — 2.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Kharkiv's away record stands at 2W 1D 6L across 9 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zorya Luhansk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zorya Luhansk are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 0.94 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Defensively: Zorya Luhansk have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zorya Luhansk
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Zorya Luhansk have gone 11W 3D 4L in their last 18 games (2.00 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 6W 1D 11L in their last 18 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zorya Luhansk at home or FC Kharkiv away?
Zorya Luhansk's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zorya Luhansk at home: 2.11 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Zorya Luhansk or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zorya Luhansk have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Oct 2021, when Zorya Luhansk won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zorya Luhansk's record when hosting FC Kharkiv specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Zorya Luhansk
1
Draws
1
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv?
From 7 meetings on record, Zorya Luhansk have won 5, FC Kharkiv have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Zorya Luhansk 1-1 FC Kharkiv.
Who has won more matches between Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv?
Zorya Luhansk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zorya Luhansk see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Zorya Luhansk 22% BTTS, FC Kharkiv 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Zorya Luhansk and 33% for FC Kharkiv.
On the defensive side: Zorya Luhansk keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; FC Kharkiv in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zorya Luhansk home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zorya Luhansk play FC Kharkiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 22% of Zorya Luhansk's recent matches and 33% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Zorya Luhansk's recent games and 33% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Zorya Luhansk have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Zorya Luhansk's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv finished level at 0-0 at Slavutych-Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zorya Luhansk 1.38 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.88 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Zorya Luhansk fell 1.4 short of their projected output. FC Kharkiv landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zorya Luhansk attack 1.01 / defence 1.00 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.71 / defence 1.24, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zorya Luhansk 49% | Draw 28% | FC Kharkiv 24%, with Zorya Luhansk to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zorya Luhansk 50%, FC Kharkiv 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Zorya Luhansk arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Zorya Luhansk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.