Zorya Luhansk 2-1 Livyi Bereh – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Zorya Luhansk at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Zorya Luhansk face Livyi Bereh.

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Match Analysis

Zorya Luhansk host Livyi Bereh at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi in Premier League (matchday 26). Kick-off is Friday 25 April 2025 at 17:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Zorya Luhansk have gone 5W 1D 4L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Zorya Luhansk at home: 5W 0D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Livyi Bereh — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

On the road, Livyi Bereh have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Zorya Luhansk at 1.60 PPG versus Livyi Bereh's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Zorya Luhansk have won 1, Livyi Bereh 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2024, ended Zorya Luhansk 2–0 Livyi Bereh — a Zorya Luhansk win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Zorya Luhansk in-play and half-time data (last 28 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).

Livyi Bereh in-play and half-time data (last 28 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 33% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 8% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they fail to score in 61% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zorya Luhansk 54% versus Livyi Bereh 21%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Zorya Luhansk 57% | Livyi Bereh 21%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Zorya Luhansk 1.12 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zorya Luhansk attack 0.981 / defence 1.236 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.658 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.008. Livyi Bereh's attack rating of 0.658 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.82. Zorya Luhansk's defence rating of 1.236 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Livyi Bereh's projected output up. Data: built from Zorya Luhansk's last 54 games and Livyi Bereh's last 24.

Result probabilities: Zorya Luhansk 43% | Draw 31% | Livyi Bereh 27%. Fair-value odds: Zorya Luhansk 2.35 | Draw 3.24 | Livyi Bereh 3.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Zorya Luhansk as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zorya Luhansk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 1.94 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 69% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Zorya Luhansk's last 10 home games and Livyi Bereh's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Zorya Luhansk 50% (last 10 home games) | Livyi Bereh 10% (last 10 away games).

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