Zorya Luhansk 1-0 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Zorya Luhansk at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zorya Luhansk vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Epitsentr Dunayivtsi travel to Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho to take on Zorya Luhansk. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 April 2026, 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Zorya Luhansk — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zorya Luhansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zorya Luhansk at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Zorya Luhansk at 1.30 PPG versus Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Zorya Luhansk have won 1, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2025, ended 2–1 with Zorya Luhansk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Zorya Luhansk in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zorya Luhansk 56% versus Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zorya Luhansk 52% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zorya Luhansk 1.85 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zorya Luhansk attack 1.151 / defence 0.887 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.776 / defence 1.337. League average goals — home 1.202 / away 1.181. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.337 — this is suppressing Zorya Luhansk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Zorya Luhansk games / 22 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zorya Luhansk 62% | Draw 22% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 16%. Fair-value odds: Zorya Luhansk 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Zorya Luhansk (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zorya Luhansk are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Zorya Luhansk 50% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zorya Luhansk vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Apr 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zorya Luhansk 62% | Draw 22% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 47% | xG Zorya Luhansk 1.85 / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Zorya Luhansk attack 1.151 / def 0.887 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.776 / def 1.337 | league avg home 1.202 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Zorya Luhansk (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Zorya Luhansk xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
47%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zorya Luhansk vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi kick off?
Zorya Luhansk vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 12 April 2026 at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho.
What was the final score in Zorya Luhansk vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Zorya Luhansk 1 - 0 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
Where is Zorya Luhansk vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho.
What competition is Zorya Luhansk vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi part of?
Zorya Luhansk vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Zorya Luhansk vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our statistical model gives Zorya Luhansk a 62% chance of winning, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Zorya Luhansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zorya Luhansk vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Zorya Luhansk and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will score (BTTS).
Will Zorya Luhansk vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zorya Luhansk and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Record (1 meetings): Zorya Luhansk 1W | Draws 0 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0W.
What form are Zorya Luhansk and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in?
Zorya Luhansk (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Zorya Luhansk's attack rating (1.15) and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack versus Zorya Luhansk's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zorya Luhansk Win
62%
1.61
22%
4.52
16%
6.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Zorya Luhansk xG
Total xG
2.66
0.81
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
6.27
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
16%
6.36
Win to Nil
27%
3.64
3%
39.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 10.5 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zorya Luhansk vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Zorya Luhansk and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Zorya Luhansk and 0.81 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Zorya Luhansk vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zorya Luhansk come into this having played 23 games, going 8W 8D 7L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-D. The sample for Zorya Luhansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi sit at 1.04 PPG from 23 outings (7W 3D 13L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zorya Luhansk on 1.39 PPG, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Zorya Luhansk's home form reads 4W 4D 3L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have taken 1.18 points per game from 11 outings (4W 1D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Zorya Luhansk are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are on 1.26 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zorya Luhansk
Blended
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zorya Luhansk and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in coming into this match?
Zorya Luhansk have gone 8W 8D 7L in their last 23 games (1.39 PPG), while Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 7W 3D 13L in their last 23 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zorya Luhansk at home or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away?
Zorya Luhansk's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zorya Luhansk at home: 1.45 PPG; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Zorya Luhansk or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zorya Luhansk have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Zorya Luhansk
0
Draws
0
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zorya Luhansk and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
From 2 meetings on record, Zorya Luhansk have won 2, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zorya Luhansk and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Zorya Luhansk 1-0 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
Who has won more matches between Zorya Luhansk and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Zorya Luhansk have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zorya Luhansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zorya Luhansk 46%, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Zorya Luhansk) and 54% (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi).
On the defensive side: Zorya Luhansk keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 36%; Zorya Luhansk have failed to score in 27% of games; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zorya Luhansk home games / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zorya Luhansk play Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Zorya Luhansk's recent matches and 27% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zorya Luhansk vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Zorya Luhansk's recent games and 54% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zorya Luhansk and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi tend to score early?
Zorya Luhansk have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zorya Luhansk edge out Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zorya Luhansk beat Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1-0 at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zorya Luhansk 1.85 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.81 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Zorya Luhansk fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zorya Luhansk attack 1.15 / defence 0.89 against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.78 / defence 1.34, drawn from 51/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zorya Luhansk 62% | Draw 22% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 16%, with Zorya Luhansk to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zorya Luhansk 52%, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zorya Luhansk 1.39 PPG, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zorya Luhansk win broke the near-deadlock. Zorya Luhansk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.