Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vorskla Poltava at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo plays host to Vorskla Poltava versus Veres Rivne in Premier League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Sunday 27 February 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vorskla Poltava have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vorskla Poltava's home record at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier League appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo.
Veres Rivne's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Veres Rivne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Veres Rivne's away record: 2W 1D 6L from 9 road trips in Premier League this season (0.78 PPG). Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Vorskla Poltava's favour (1.80 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Vorskla Poltava lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Vorskla Poltava half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Veres Rivne half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 50% versus Veres Rivne 22%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Vorskla Poltava 44% | Veres Rivne 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 1.57 xG and Veres Rivne 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.183 / defence 1.041 | Veres Rivne attack 0.696 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 1.108 / away 1.218. Data: 18 Vorskla Poltava games / 18 Veres Rivne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 54% | Draw 25% | Veres Rivne 21%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Veres Rivne 4.76. Vorskla Poltava hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Vorskla Poltava as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vorskla Poltava if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vorskla Poltava 40% | Veres Rivne 22% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 54% | Draw 25% | Veres Rivne 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 46% | xG Vorskla Poltava 1.57 / Veres Rivne 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.183 / def 1.041 | Veres Rivne attack 0.696 / def 1.200 | league avg home 1.108 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Veres Rivne xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 54% chance of winning, Veres Rivne a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and Veres Rivne will score (BTTS).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Veres Rivne?
Record (1 meetings): Vorskla Poltava 0W | Draws 1 | Veres Rivne 0W.
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Veres Rivne in?
Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Veres Rivne (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Vorskla Poltava's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Veres Rivne's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. Flip it around — Veres Rivne's attack (0.70x) against Vorskla Poltava's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
54%
1.87
25%
3.95
21%
4.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
2.46
0.88
Veres Rivne xG
1.87
54%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
4.75
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
22%
4.51
4%
22.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 11.9 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.4 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and Veres Rivne expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 0.88 for Veres Rivne, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 18 outings, Vorskla Poltava have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 9W 6D 3L record — W-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Veres Rivne's form line: 6W 5D 7L from 18 games, 1.28 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D. The sample for Veres Rivne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Vorskla Poltava are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Veres Rivne.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Vorskla Poltava have posted 2.22 PPG from 9 outings (6W 2D 1L).
On the road, Veres Rivne have gone 2W 1D 6L from 9 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Veres Rivne's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vorskla Poltava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Veres Rivne are on 0.83 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Veres Rivne in 22%.
Defensively: Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Veres Rivne in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
Veres Rivne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Veres Rivne in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 9W 6D 3L in their last 18 games (1.83 PPG), while Veres Rivne have gone 6W 5D 7L in their last 18 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vorskla Poltava at home or Veres Rivne away?
Vorskla Poltava's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vorskla Poltava at home: 2.22 PPG; Veres Rivne away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Vorskla Poltava or Veres Rivne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Veres Rivne in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Vorskla Poltava won 3-0 on 27 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vorskla Poltava have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Veres Rivne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Vorskla Poltava
3
Draws
1
Veres Rivne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Veres Rivne?
From 7 meetings on record, Vorskla Poltava have won 3, Veres Rivne have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and Veres Rivne last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2025, when Vorskla Poltava 3-0 Veres Rivne.
Who has won more matches between Vorskla Poltava and Veres Rivne?
Vorskla Poltava have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Veres Rivne see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Vorskla Poltava) and 22% (Veres Rivne) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Vorskla Poltava) and 56% (Veres Rivne).
On the defensive side: Vorskla Poltava keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Veres Rivne in 33%; Veres Rivne in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / Veres Rivne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vorskla Poltava play Veres Rivne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Vorskla Poltava's recent matches and 22% of Veres Rivne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Vorskla Poltava's recent games and 56% of Veres Rivne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vorskla Poltava and Veres Rivne tend to score early?
Vorskla Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Veres Rivne in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Vorskla Poltava's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo, Regular Season - 19, as Vorskla Poltava and Veres Rivne drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 1.57 xG and Veres Rivne 0.88 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Vorskla Poltava fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Veres Rivne landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 1.18 / defence 1.04 against Veres Rivne attack 0.70 / defence 1.20, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 54% | Draw 25% | Veres Rivne 21%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 44%, Veres Rivne 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Veres Rivne's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Vorskla Poltava arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.22 scoring average — below par going forward. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.