Vorskla Poltava 0-0 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Kharkiv at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees FC Kharkiv travel to Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo to take on Vorskla Poltava. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 March 2023, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vorskla Poltava stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vorskla Poltava at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Kharkiv have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Kharkiv have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Vorskla Poltava) versus 1.10 (FC Kharkiv). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Vorskla Poltava, 1 for FC Kharkiv and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2022, ended 2–3 with FC Kharkiv winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Vorskla Poltava in-play tendencies (35 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
FC Kharkiv in-play tendencies (35 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 57% versus FC Kharkiv 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vorskla Poltava 49% | FC Kharkiv 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 1.30 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.043 / defence 1.016 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.965 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.216 / away 1.412. Data: 35 Vorskla Poltava games / 35 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 35% | Draw 26% | FC Kharkiv 39%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | FC Kharkiv 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Kharkiv at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Kharkiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Vorskla Poltava 50% | FC Kharkiv 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Mar 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 35% | Draw 26% | FC Kharkiv 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Vorskla Poltava 1.30 / FC Kharkiv 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.043 / def 1.016 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.965 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.216 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: FC Kharkiv (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
1.39
FC Kharkiv xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 18 March 2023 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo.
What was the final score in Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv?
Vorskla Poltava 0 - 0 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 35% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Kharkiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and FC Kharkiv?
Record (2 meetings): Vorskla Poltava 1W | Draws 0 | FC Kharkiv 1W.
What form are Vorskla Poltava and FC Kharkiv in?
Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Vorskla Poltava's attack at 1.04x the league average against FC Kharkiv's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Kharkiv's attack versus Vorskla Poltava's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Kharkiv Win
35%
2.84
26%
3.87
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
2.69
1.39
FC Kharkiv xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
9%
11.36
11%
9.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.3 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 1.39 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 35 outings, Vorskla Poltava have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 14W 10D 11L record — D-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Kharkiv's form line: 10W 9D 16L from 35 games, 1.11 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-D. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vorskla Poltava on 1.49 PPG, FC Kharkiv on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Vorskla Poltava have posted 1.78 PPG from 18 outings (9W 5D 4L).
On the road, FC Kharkiv have gone 3W 7D 8L from 18 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vorskla Poltava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 0.97 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vorskla Poltava and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 14W 10D 11L in their last 35 games (1.49 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 10W 9D 16L in their last 35 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vorskla Poltava at home or FC Kharkiv away?
Vorskla Poltava's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vorskla Poltava at home: 1.78 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Vorskla Poltava or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Vorskla Poltava's record when hosting FC Kharkiv specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Vorskla Poltava
2
Draws
2
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and FC Kharkiv?
From 5 meetings on record, Vorskla Poltava have won 1, FC Kharkiv have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2024, when FC Kharkiv 3-2 Vorskla Poltava.
Who has won more matches between Vorskla Poltava and FC Kharkiv?
FC Kharkiv have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vorskla Poltava 44%, FC Kharkiv 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Vorskla Poltava) and 28% (FC Kharkiv).
On the defensive side: Vorskla Poltava keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; FC Kharkiv in 61%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vorskla Poltava play FC Kharkiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Vorskla Poltava's recent matches and 33% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Vorskla Poltava's recent games and 28% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vorskla Poltava and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Vorskla Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Vorskla Poltava's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo, Regular Season - 18, as Vorskla Poltava and FC Kharkiv drew 0-0 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 1.30 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.39 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Vorskla Poltava fell 1.3 short of their projected output. FC Kharkiv landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 1.04 / defence 1.02 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.96 / defence 1.03, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 35% | Draw 26% | FC Kharkiv 39%, with FC Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 49%, FC Kharkiv 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (35 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (35 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 49% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vorskla Poltava 1.49 PPG, FC Kharkiv 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.