Vorskla Poltava 0-1 Livyi Bereh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vorskla Poltava at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vorskla Poltava vs Livyi Bereh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Livyi Bereh travel to Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho to take on Vorskla Poltava. The game is scheduled for Friday 13 December 2024, 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Vorskla Poltava have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vorskla Poltava's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Livyi Bereh stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Livyi Bereh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Livyi Bereh's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 5L across 8 road games this term (0.62 PPG). Away from home they average 0.38 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 12% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Vorskla Poltava) versus 0.70 (Livyi Bereh). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Vorskla Poltava's 20% and Livyi Bereh's 12% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Vorskla Poltava, 0 for Livyi Bereh and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2024, ended 3–0 with Vorskla Poltava winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Vorskla Poltava in-play tendencies (20 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Livyi Bereh in-play tendencies (20 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 65% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Vorskla Poltava 45% | Livyi Bereh 25%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Vorskla Poltava 50% | Livyi Bereh 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 1.01 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.751 / defence 1.235 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.644 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.010. Vorskla Poltava's attack strength of 0.751 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 46 Vorskla Poltava games / 16 Livyi Bereh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 37% | Draw 37% | Livyi Bereh 26%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 2.70 | Draw 2.70 | Livyi Bereh 3.85. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 26% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.82 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vorskla Poltava 20% | Livyi Bereh 12% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs Livyi Bereh | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho • Kick-off: Friday 13 Dec 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 37% | Draw 37% | Livyi Bereh 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 37% | xG Vorskla Poltava 1.01 / Livyi Bereh 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.751 / def 1.235 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.644 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Livyi Bereh xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs Livyi Bereh kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs Livyi Bereh kicked off at 13:30 on Friday 13 December 2024 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What was the final score in Vorskla Poltava vs Livyi Bereh?
Vorskla Poltava 0 - 1 Livyi Bereh.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs Livyi Bereh being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs Livyi Bereh part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs Livyi Bereh is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs Livyi Bereh?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 37% chance of winning, Livyi Bereh a 26% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs Livyi Bereh?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and Livyi Bereh will score (BTTS).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs Livyi Bereh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Livyi Bereh?
Record (1 meetings): Vorskla Poltava 1W | Draws 0 | Livyi Bereh 0W.
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Livyi Bereh in?
Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Livyi Bereh (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Vorskla Poltava's attack rating (0.75) and Livyi Bereh's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Livyi Bereh's attack versus Vorskla Poltava's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
37%
2.68
37%
2.72
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
1.82
0.80
Livyi Bereh xG
2.68
37%
Home win
2.72
37%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
17%
5.99
9%
10.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.2 | 13.1 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs Livyi Bereh?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.0%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and Livyi Bereh expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 0.80 for Livyi Bereh, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs Livyi Bereh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 20 outings, Vorskla Poltava have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 5W 4D 11L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Livyi Bereh's form line: 4W 6D 10L from 20 games, 0.90 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-W. The sample for Livyi Bereh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vorskla Poltava on 0.95 PPG, Livyi Bereh on 0.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Vorskla Poltava have posted 1.25 PPG from 8 outings (3W 1D 4L).
On the road, Livyi Bereh have gone 1W 2D 5L from 8 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vorskla Poltava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Livyi Bereh are on 0.65 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Livyi Bereh in 25%.
Last 20 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
Livyi Bereh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Livyi Bereh in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 5W 4D 11L in their last 20 games (0.95 PPG), while Livyi Bereh have gone 4W 6D 10L in their last 20 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vorskla Poltava at home or Livyi Bereh away?
Vorskla Poltava's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vorskla Poltava at home: 1.25 PPG; Livyi Bereh away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vorskla Poltava and Livyi Bereh runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Vorskla Poltava
0
Draws
1
Livyi Bereh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Livyi Bereh?
From 2 meetings on record, Vorskla Poltava have won 1, Livyi Bereh have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and Livyi Bereh last play each other?
They last met on 13 December 2024, when Vorskla Poltava 0-1 Livyi Bereh.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Livyi Bereh tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Vorskla Poltava 25% BTTS, Livyi Bereh 12%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Vorskla Poltava) and 25% (Livyi Bereh).
On the defensive side: Vorskla Poltava keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Vorskla Poltava have failed to score in 50% of games; Livyi Bereh in 88%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / Livyi Bereh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vorskla Poltava play Livyi Bereh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Vorskla Poltava's recent matches and 12% of Livyi Bereh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vorskla Poltava vs Livyi Bereh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Vorskla Poltava's recent games and 25% of Livyi Bereh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vorskla Poltava and Livyi Bereh tend to score early?
Vorskla Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Livyi Bereh in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Livyi Bereh defy the odds to beat Vorskla Poltava 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Livyi Bereh beat Vorskla Poltava 0-1 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 1.01 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.80 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Vorskla Poltava fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 0.75 / defence 1.24 against Livyi Bereh attack 0.64 / defence 1.05, drawn from 46/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 37% | Draw 37% | Livyi Bereh 26%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Livyi Bereh win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 50%, Livyi Bereh 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (20 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Livyi Bereh's trading profile (20 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vorskla Poltava 0.95 PPG, Livyi Bereh 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Livyi Bereh win broke the near-deadlock. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Livyi Bereh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.