Vorskla Poltava 1-0 Inhulets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Inhulets at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Vorskla Poltava and Inhulets meet at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo in Premier League, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Friday 7 April 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Vorskla Poltava (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vorskla Poltava at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Inhulets have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Inhulets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inhulets's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Inhulets are 0.60 PPG clear of Vorskla Poltava in recent Premier League fixtures (1.80 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Vorskla Poltava, 0 for Inhulets and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 1–0 with Vorskla Poltava winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Vorskla Poltava — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Inhulets — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 54% versus Inhulets 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vorskla Poltava 49% | Inhulets 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 1.11 xG and Inhulets 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.959 / defence 0.919 | Inhulets attack 1.042 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 1.338. Data: 37 Vorskla Poltava games / 35 Inhulets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 32% | Draw 28% | Inhulets 40%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Inhulets 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Inhulets at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Inhulets if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Vorskla Poltava 50% | Inhulets 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo • Kick-off: Friday 7 Apr 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 32% | Draw 28% | Inhulets 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Vorskla Poltava 1.11 / Inhulets 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.959 / def 0.919 | Inhulets attack 1.042 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.151 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Inhulets (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Inhulets xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 7 April 2023 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo.
What was the final score in Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets?
Vorskla Poltava 1 - 0 Inhulets.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 32% chance of winning, Inhulets a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Inhulets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and Inhulets will score (BTTS).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Inhulets?
Record (2 meetings): Vorskla Poltava 2W | Draws 0 | Inhulets 0W.
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Inhulets in?
Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Inhulets (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Vorskla Poltava's attack rating (0.96) and Inhulets's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Inhulets's attack (1.04x) against Vorskla Poltava's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 37/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inhulets Win
32%
3.12
28%
3.62
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
2.39
1.28
Inhulets xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
9%
11.23
13%
7.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.7 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and Inhulets expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 1.28 for Inhulets, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 35 outings, Vorskla Poltava have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 13W 10D 12L record — L-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Inhulets's form line: 9W 8D 18L from 35 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Inhulets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Vorskla Poltava against 1.00 for Inhulets. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Vorskla Poltava have posted 1.71 PPG from 17 outings (8W 5D 4L).
On the road, Inhulets have gone 3W 6D 8L from 17 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vorskla Poltava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Inhulets are on 0.91 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
Inhulets
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Inhulets in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 13W 10D 12L in their last 35 games (1.40 PPG), while Inhulets have gone 9W 8D 18L in their last 35 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vorskla Poltava at home or Inhulets away?
Vorskla Poltava's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vorskla Poltava at home: 1.71 PPG; Inhulets away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Vorskla Poltava or Inhulets been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Inhulets in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Vorskla Poltava won 3-0 on 2 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vorskla Poltava have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Inhulets — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Vorskla Poltava
1
Draws
1
Inhulets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Inhulets?
From 5 meetings on record, Vorskla Poltava have won 3, Inhulets have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and Inhulets last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2025, when Inhulets 1-1 Vorskla Poltava.
Who has won more matches between Vorskla Poltava and Inhulets?
Vorskla Poltava have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vorskla Poltava see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Inhulets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 35% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vorskla Poltava 41%, Inhulets 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Vorskla Poltava) and 53% (Inhulets).
On the defensive side: Vorskla Poltava keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Vorskla Poltava have failed to score in 29% of games; Inhulets in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / Inhulets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vorskla Poltava play Inhulets?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Vorskla Poltava's recent matches and 53% of Inhulets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Vorskla Poltava's recent games and 53% of Inhulets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vorskla Poltava and Inhulets tend to score early?
Vorskla Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Inhulets in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vorskla Poltava defy the odds to beat Inhulets 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vorskla Poltava beat Inhulets 1-0 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 1.11 xG and Inhulets 1.28 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Inhulets landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 0.96 / defence 0.92 against Inhulets attack 1.04 / defence 1.01, drawn from 37/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 32% | Draw 28% | Inhulets 40%, with Inhulets to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Vorskla Poltava win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 49%, Inhulets 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Inhulets's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vorskla Poltava 1.40 PPG, Inhulets 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vorskla Poltava win broke the near-deadlock. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Inhulets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.