Vorskla Poltava 1-4 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kryvbas KR at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho plays host to Vorskla Poltava versus Kryvbas KR in Premier League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Saturday 23 September 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vorskla Poltava have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 7W 0D 3L. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Vorskla Poltava have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vorskla Poltava have posted 7W 1D 2L at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
Kryvbas KR's overall Premier League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Kryvbas KR have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kryvbas KR's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.10 for Vorskla Poltava, 2.00 for Kryvbas KR — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Vorskla Poltava 1W, Kryvbas KR 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2023, ended 1–0 with Vorskla Poltava winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Vorskla Poltava half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Kryvbas KR half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 56% versus Kryvbas KR 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vorskla Poltava 50% | Kryvbas KR 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 1.00 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.085 / defence 0.869 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.034 / defence 0.785. League average goals — home 1.179 / away 1.184. Kryvbas KR's defence strength of 0.785 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 36 Vorskla Poltava games / 37 Kryvbas KR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 33% | Draw 31% | Kryvbas KR 36%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Kryvbas KR 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kryvbas KR at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Vorskla Poltava 50% | Kryvbas KR 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Sep 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 33% | Draw 31% | Kryvbas KR 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Vorskla Poltava 1.00 / Kryvbas KR 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.085 / def 0.869 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.034 / def 0.785 | league avg home 1.179 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Kryvbas KR xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What was the final score in Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR?
Vorskla Poltava 1 - 4 Kryvbas KR.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 33% chance of winning, Kryvbas KR a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and Kryvbas KR will score (BTTS).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Kryvbas KR?
Record (2 meetings): Vorskla Poltava 1W | Draws 0 | Kryvbas KR 1W.
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Kryvbas KR in?
Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Kryvbas KR (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Vorskla Poltava's attack at 1.08x the league average against Kryvbas KR's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kryvbas KR's attack (1.03x) against Vorskla Poltava's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 36/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
33%
3.05
31%
3.19
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
2.07
1.06
Kryvbas KR xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
11%
8.82
13%
7.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and Kryvbas KR expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 1.06 for Kryvbas KR, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Vorskla Poltava come into this having played 36 games, going 16W 6D 14L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Kryvbas KR sit at 1.53 PPG from 36 outings (16W 7D 13L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Vorskla Poltava against 1.53 for Kryvbas KR. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Vorskla Poltava's home form reads 10W 3D 5L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Kryvbas KR have taken 1.22 points per game from 18 outings (6W 4D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vorskla Poltava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Kryvbas KR are on 1.08 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Kryvbas KR in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Early Season
Kryvbas KR
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Kryvbas KR in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 16W 6D 14L in their last 36 games (1.50 PPG), while Kryvbas KR have gone 16W 7D 13L in their last 36 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vorskla Poltava at home or Kryvbas KR away?
Vorskla Poltava's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vorskla Poltava at home: 1.83 PPG; Kryvbas KR away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Vorskla Poltava or Kryvbas KR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Kryvbas KR in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kryvbas KR won 1-4 on 23 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vorskla Poltava have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Kryvbas KR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Vorskla Poltava
2
Draws
3
Kryvbas KR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Kryvbas KR?
From 6 meetings on record, Vorskla Poltava have won 1, Kryvbas KR have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and Kryvbas KR last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2025, when Vorskla Poltava 0-1 Kryvbas KR.
Who has won more matches between Vorskla Poltava and Kryvbas KR?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Kryvbas KR see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vorskla Poltava 50%, Kryvbas KR 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Vorskla Poltava) and 39% (Kryvbas KR).
On the defensive side: Vorskla Poltava keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Kryvbas KR in 33%; Kryvbas KR in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / Kryvbas KR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vorskla Poltava play Kryvbas KR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Vorskla Poltava's recent matches and 33% of Kryvbas KR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Vorskla Poltava's recent games and 39% of Kryvbas KR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vorskla Poltava and Kryvbas KR tend to score early?
Vorskla Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Kryvbas KR in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Kryvbas KR run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Vorskla Poltava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kryvbas KR beat Vorskla Poltava 1-4 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 1.00 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.06 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Kryvbas KR outscored their 1.06 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 1.08 / defence 0.87 against Kryvbas KR attack 1.03 / defence 0.79, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 33% | Draw 31% | Kryvbas KR 36%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 50%, Kryvbas KR 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vorskla Poltava 1.50 PPG, Kryvbas KR 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kryvbas KR win broke the near-deadlock. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.