Vorskla Poltava 2-3 Dnipro-1 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dnipro-1 at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vorskla Poltava vs Dnipro-1 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho plays host to Vorskla Poltava versus Dnipro-1 in Premier League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Wednesday 25 October 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vorskla Poltava have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vorskla Poltava's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 games at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Vorskla Poltava are significantly better at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho than their overall form suggests.
Dnipro-1 (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Dnipro-1, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dnipro-1 away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Dnipro-1 are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Vorskla Poltava 1W, Dnipro-1 1W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2023, ended 2–1 with Vorskla Poltava winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Vorskla Poltava goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Dnipro-1 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 54% versus Dnipro-1 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vorskla Poltava 51% | Dnipro-1 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 0.80 xG and Dnipro-1 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.973 / defence 1.229 | Dnipro-1 attack 0.955 / defence 0.735. League average goals — home 1.112 / away 1.233. Dnipro-1's defence strength of 0.735 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 40 Vorskla Poltava games / 39 Dnipro-1 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 20% | Draw 28% | Dnipro-1 52%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 5.00 | Draw 3.57 | Dnipro-1 1.92. Dnipro-1 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dnipro-1 as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dnipro-1 if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vorskla Poltava 60% | Dnipro-1 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs Dnipro-1 | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho • Kick-off: Wednesday 25 Oct 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 20% | Draw 28% | Dnipro-1 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG Vorskla Poltava 0.80 / Dnipro-1 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.973 / def 1.229 | Dnipro-1 attack 0.955 / def 0.735 | league avg home 1.112 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Dnipro-1 xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs Dnipro-1 kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs Dnipro-1 kicked off at 13:00 on Wednesday 25 October 2023 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What was the final score in Vorskla Poltava vs Dnipro-1?
Vorskla Poltava 2 - 3 Dnipro-1.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs Dnipro-1 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs Dnipro-1 part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs Dnipro-1 is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs Dnipro-1?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 20% chance of winning, Dnipro-1 a 52% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs Dnipro-1?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and Dnipro-1 will score (BTTS).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs Dnipro-1 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Dnipro-1?
Record (4 meetings): Vorskla Poltava 1W | Draws 2 | Dnipro-1 1W.
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Dnipro-1 in?
Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Dnipro-1 (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Vorskla Poltava's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Dnipro-1's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.80. Flip it around — Dnipro-1's attack (0.95x) against Vorskla Poltava's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 40/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
20%
5.00
28%
3.56
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
2.24
1.45
Dnipro-1 xG
5.00
20%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
45%
2.22
Win to Nil
5%
21.26
23%
4.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 15.4 | 11.1 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.2 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs Dnipro-1?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and Dnipro-1 expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 1.45 for Dnipro-1, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs Dnipro-1?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vorskla Poltava come into this having played 39 games, going 17W 7D 15L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dnipro-1 sit at 2.18 PPG from 39 outings (26W 7D 6L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Dnipro-1 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dnipro-1 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of Vorskla Poltava — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Vorskla Poltava's home form reads 10W 2D 6L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Dnipro-1 have taken 2.17 points per game from 18 outings (12W 3D 3L).
Attack vs Defence
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Dnipro-1 are on 1.82 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Dnipro-1 in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
Dnipro-1
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Dnipro-1 in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 17W 7D 15L in their last 39 games (1.49 PPG), while Dnipro-1 have gone 26W 7D 6L in their last 39 (2.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vorskla Poltava at home or Dnipro-1 away?
Dnipro-1's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vorskla Poltava at home: 1.78 PPG; Dnipro-1 away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Vorskla Poltava or Dnipro-1 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Dnipro-1 in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dnipro-1 won 5-1 on 27 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vorskla Poltava have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Dnipro-1 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Vorskla Poltava
2
Draws
2
Dnipro-1
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Dnipro-1?
From 6 meetings on record, Vorskla Poltava have won 2, Dnipro-1 have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and Dnipro-1 last play each other?
They last met on 2 December 2023, when Dnipro-1 1-2 Vorskla Poltava.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vorskla Poltava 50%, Dnipro-1 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Vorskla Poltava) and 56% (Dnipro-1).
On the defensive side: Vorskla Poltava keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Dnipro-1 in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / Dnipro-1 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vorskla Poltava play Dnipro-1?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Vorskla Poltava's recent matches and 44% of Dnipro-1's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vorskla Poltava vs Dnipro-1 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Vorskla Poltava's recent games and 56% of Dnipro-1's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vorskla Poltava and Dnipro-1 tend to score early?
Vorskla Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Dnipro-1 in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dnipro-1 edge out Vorskla Poltava 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dnipro-1 beat Vorskla Poltava 2-3 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 0.80 xG and Dnipro-1 1.45 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Vorskla Poltava beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dnipro-1 outscored their 1.45 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 0.97 / defence 1.23 against Dnipro-1 attack 0.95 / defence 0.73, drawn from 40/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 20% | Draw 28% | Dnipro-1 52%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 51%, Dnipro-1 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (39 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Dnipro-1's trading profile (39 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.49. That form edge translated into the three points. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.