Veres Rivne 0-1 Kolos Kovalivka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kolos Kovalivka at 36% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kolos Kovalivka make the trip to Avanhard to face Veres Rivne in Premier League (matchday 21). The match kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Form
Veres Rivne (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Veres Rivne have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Kolos Kovalivka's record over their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Kolos Kovalivka away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Veres Rivne, 1.40 for Kolos Kovalivka — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head sample leans to Kolos Kovalivka, who have 5 wins from 8 H2H matches compared to 2 for the hosts, with 1 draw.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game across the 8 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 20 Sep 2025, ended Veres Rivne 0–0 Kolos Kovalivka — a draw.
Kolos Kovalivka have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading & In-Play
Veres Rivne — key trading statistics (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Kolos Kovalivka — key trading statistics (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Veres Rivne 45% versus Kolos Kovalivka 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Veres Rivne 45% | Kolos Kovalivka 24%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Veres Rivne surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Kolos Kovalivka have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Veres Rivne 1.17 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Veres Rivne attack 0.912 / defence 1.162 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.850 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.164 / away 1.204. Data: built from Veres Rivne's last 49 games and Kolos Kovalivka's last 50.
Result probabilities: Veres Rivne 35% | Draw 28% | Kolos Kovalivka 36%. Fair-value odds: Veres Rivne 2.83 | Draw 3.53 | Kolos Kovalivka 2.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kolos Kovalivka are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Kolos Kovalivka 5 wins from 8 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kolos Kovalivka if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Veres Rivne's last 10 home games and Kolos Kovalivka's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.5 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Veres Rivne 30% (last 10 home games) | Kolos Kovalivka 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka | Competition: Premier League, matchday 21 | Venue: Avanhard • Kick-off: Sunday 22 March 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Veres Rivne 35% | Draw 28% | Kolos Kovalivka 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Veres Rivne 1.17 / Kolos Kovalivka 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Veres Rivne attack 0.912 / def 1.162 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.850 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.164 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Kolos Kovalivka (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Veres Rivne xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Kolos Kovalivka xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka FAQs
What time does Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka kick off?
Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Avanhard.
What was the final score in Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Veres Rivne 0 - 1 Kolos Kovalivka.
Where is Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka being played?
The match is being played at Avanhard.
What competition is Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka part of?
Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka is a Premier League fixture (matchday 21) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our statistical model gives Veres Rivne a 35% chance of winning, Kolos Kovalivka a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Kolos Kovalivka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Veres Rivne and Kolos Kovalivka will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Veres Rivne's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Kolos Kovalivka's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — Kolos Kovalivka's attack (0.85x) against Veres Rivne's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from Veres Rivne's last 49 games and Kolos Kovalivka's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kolos Kovalivka Win
35%
2.83
28%
3.53
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Veres Rivne xG
Total xG
2.36
1.19
Kolos Kovalivka xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
11%
9.27
11%
8.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 11.2 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Veres Rivne and Kolos Kovalivka expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Veres Rivne and 1.19 for Kolos Kovalivka, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Veres Rivne's recent record stands at 14W 16D 19L from 49 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five.
Kolos Kovalivka, meanwhile, have gone 15W 19D 15L across 49 games — 1.31 PPG, with D-L-W-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Veres Rivne against 1.31 for Kolos Kovalivka. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Veres Rivne have managed 8W 8D 8L from their last 24 home games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kolos Kovalivka's away record stands at 10W 6D 8L across their last 24 away games, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Veres Rivne are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Kolos Kovalivka are on 0.90 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Veres Rivne
Blended
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
Veres Rivne (Home) vs Kolos Kovalivka (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Veres Rivne
Blended
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
❓ Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka Form FAQs
What form are Veres Rivne and Kolos Kovalivka in coming into this match?
Veres Rivne have gone 14W 16D 19L in their last 49 games (1.18 PPG), while Kolos Kovalivka have gone 15W 19D 15L in their last 49 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Veres Rivne at home or Kolos Kovalivka away?
Kolos Kovalivka's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Veres Rivne at home: 1.33 PPG; Kolos Kovalivka away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Veres Rivne or Kolos Kovalivka been keeping clean sheets recently?
Veres Rivne have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Kolos Kovalivka in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Veres Rivne and Kolos Kovalivka, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 23 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Kolos Kovalivka have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Veres Rivne have gone 1W 0D 4L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Kolos Kovalivka — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Veres Rivne
1
Draws
7
Kolos Kovalivka
Recent Meetings
❓ Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Kolos Kovalivka?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Veres Rivne have won 2, Kolos Kovalivka have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Veres Rivne and Kolos Kovalivka last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 October 2026: Veres Rivne 0-2 Kolos Kovalivka.
Who has won more matches between Veres Rivne and Kolos Kovalivka?
Kolos Kovalivka have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Veres Rivne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Kolos Kovalivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Veres Rivne 58%, Kolos Kovalivka 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Veres Rivne) and 33% (Kolos Kovalivka).
On the defensive side: Kolos Kovalivka in 38%; Veres Rivne have failed to score in 29% of games; Kolos Kovalivka in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Veres Rivne home games / Kolos Kovalivka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Veres Rivne and Kolos Kovalivka matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Veres Rivne's recent matches and 38% of Kolos Kovalivka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Veres Rivne and Kolos Kovalivka matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Veres Rivne's recent games and 33% of Kolos Kovalivka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Veres Rivne and Kolos Kovalivka matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Veres Rivne's recent matches and 71% of Kolos Kovalivka's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kolos Kovalivka edge out Veres Rivne 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kolos Kovalivka beat Veres Rivne 0-1 at Avanhard, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Veres Rivne 1.17 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 1.19 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Veres Rivne fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Veres Rivne attack 0.91 / defence 1.16 against Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.85 / defence 1.10, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Veres Rivne 35% | Draw 28% | Kolos Kovalivka 36%, with Kolos Kovalivka to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Veres Rivne 45%, Kolos Kovalivka 24%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Veres Rivne's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Veres Rivne 1.18 PPG, Kolos Kovalivka 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kolos Kovalivka win broke the near-deadlock. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Kolos Kovalivka (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.