Veres Rivne 1-3 Chornomorets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chornomorets at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Veres Rivne vs Chornomorets fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Veres Rivne and Chornomorets meet at Stadion Avangard in Premier League, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 March 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Veres Rivne's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Veres Rivne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Veres Rivne's home record at Stadion Avangard: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Chornomorets have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chornomorets's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Veres Rivne lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2022, ended 1–0 with Veres Rivne winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Veres Rivne half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Chornomorets half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Veres Rivne 33% versus Chornomorets 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Veres Rivne 36% | Chornomorets 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Veres Rivne 1.06 xG and Chornomorets 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Veres Rivne attack 0.836 / defence 1.029 | Chornomorets attack 0.929 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.263. Data: 33 Veres Rivne games / 33 Chornomorets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Veres Rivne 32% | Draw 29% | Chornomorets 40%. Fair-value odds: Veres Rivne 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Chornomorets 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chornomorets are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chornomorets if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Veres Rivne 30% | Chornomorets 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Veres Rivne vs Chornomorets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion Avangard • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Mar 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Veres Rivne 32% | Draw 29% | Chornomorets 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Veres Rivne 1.06 / Chornomorets 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Veres Rivne attack 0.836 / def 1.029 | Chornomorets attack 0.929 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.314 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: Chornomorets (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Veres Rivne xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Chornomorets xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Veres Rivne vs Chornomorets kick off?
Veres Rivne vs Chornomorets kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 4 March 2023 at Stadion Avangard.
What was the final score in Veres Rivne vs Chornomorets?
Veres Rivne 1 - 3 Chornomorets.
Where is Veres Rivne vs Chornomorets being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Avangard.
What competition is Veres Rivne vs Chornomorets part of?
Veres Rivne vs Chornomorets is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Veres Rivne vs Chornomorets?
Our statistical model gives Veres Rivne a 32% chance of winning, Chornomorets a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Chornomorets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Veres Rivne vs Chornomorets?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Veres Rivne and Chornomorets will score (BTTS).
Will Veres Rivne vs Chornomorets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Chornomorets?
Record (2 meetings): Veres Rivne 2W | Draws 0 | Chornomorets 0W.
What form are Veres Rivne and Chornomorets in?
Veres Rivne (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Chornomorets (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Veres Rivne's attack rating (0.84) and Chornomorets's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chornomorets's attack (0.93x) against Veres Rivne's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chornomorets Win
32%
3.13
29%
3.51
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Veres Rivne xG
Total xG
2.26
1.21
Chornomorets xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
10%
10.47
14%
7.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 12.6 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Veres Rivne vs Chornomorets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Veres Rivne and Chornomorets expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Veres Rivne and 1.21 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Veres Rivne vs Chornomorets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Veres Rivne's recent record stands at 11W 7D 15L from 33 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Veres Rivne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chornomorets, meanwhile, have gone 5W 10D 18L across 33 games — 0.76 PPG, with W-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Veres Rivne by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Chornomorets heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Veres Rivne have managed 4W 5D 5L from 14 games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chornomorets's away record stands at 2W 5D 7L across 14 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Veres Rivne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Veres Rivne are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Chornomorets are on 0.91 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Veres Rivne
Blended
Chornomorets
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Veres Rivne and Chornomorets in coming into this match?
Veres Rivne have gone 11W 7D 15L in their last 33 games (1.21 PPG), while Chornomorets have gone 5W 10D 18L in their last 33 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Veres Rivne at home or Chornomorets away?
Veres Rivne's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Veres Rivne at home: 1.21 PPG; Chornomorets away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Veres Rivne or Chornomorets been keeping clean sheets recently?
Veres Rivne have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Chornomorets in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Veres Rivne have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Chornomorets — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Veres Rivne
1
Draws
1
Chornomorets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Chornomorets?
From 7 meetings on record, Veres Rivne have won 5, Chornomorets have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Veres Rivne and Chornomorets last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2025, when Veres Rivne 2-1 Chornomorets.
Who has won more matches between Veres Rivne and Chornomorets?
Veres Rivne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Veres Rivne see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Veres Rivne 29%, Chornomorets 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 21% (Veres Rivne) and 64% (Chornomorets).
On the defensive side: Veres Rivne keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Veres Rivne have failed to score in 43% of games; Chornomorets in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Veres Rivne home games / Chornomorets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Veres Rivne play Chornomorets?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Veres Rivne's recent matches and 64% of Chornomorets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Veres Rivne vs Chornomorets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of Veres Rivne's recent games and 64% of Chornomorets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Veres Rivne and Chornomorets tend to score early?
Veres Rivne have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Chornomorets in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chornomorets cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Veres Rivne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chornomorets beat Veres Rivne 1-3 at Stadion Avangard, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Veres Rivne 1.06 xG and Chornomorets 1.21 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Chornomorets outscored their 1.21 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Veres Rivne attack 0.84 / defence 1.03 against Chornomorets attack 0.93 / defence 0.96, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Veres Rivne 32% | Draw 29% | Chornomorets 40%, with Chornomorets to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Veres Rivne 36%, Chornomorets 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Veres Rivne's trading profile (33 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Chornomorets's trading profile (33 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Veres Rivne arrived the stronger side — 1.21 PPG against 0.76. Form was overturned, with Chornomorets winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chornomorets (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.