SK Poltava 0-2 LNZ Cherkasy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates LNZ Cherkasy at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SK Poltava vs LNZ Cherkasy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
LNZ Cherkasy make the trip to Zirka Stadium to face SK Poltava in Premier League, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Friday 21 November 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
SK Poltava (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SK Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Zirka Stadium, SK Poltava have gone 1W 1D 3L this season (5 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — SK Poltava are significantly better at Zirka Stadium than their overall form suggests.
LNZ Cherkasy have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. LNZ Cherkasy are 1.60 PPG clear of SK Poltava in recent Premier League fixtures (1.90 vs 0.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
SK Poltava — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
LNZ Cherkasy — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Poltava 67% versus LNZ Cherkasy 17%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Poltava 67% | LNZ Cherkasy 17%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Poltava 0.83 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Poltava attack 0.920 / defence 1.356 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.085 / defence 0.792. League average goals — home 1.138 / away 1.306. LNZ Cherkasy's defence strength of 0.792 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 12 SK Poltava games / 42 LNZ Cherkasy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Poltava 16% | Draw 21% | LNZ Cherkasy 63%. Fair-value odds: SK Poltava 6.25 | Draw 4.76 | LNZ Cherkasy 1.59. The model has a clear lean to LNZ Cherkasy (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is LNZ Cherkasy at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: SK Poltava 60% | LNZ Cherkasy 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Poltava vs LNZ Cherkasy | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Zirka Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 21 Nov 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Poltava 16% | Draw 21% | LNZ Cherkasy 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 48% | xG SK Poltava 0.83 / LNZ Cherkasy 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: SK Poltava attack 0.920 / def 1.356 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.085 / def 0.792 | league avg home 1.138 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: LNZ Cherkasy (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
SK Poltava xG
Expected Goals
1.92
LNZ Cherkasy xG
48%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Poltava vs LNZ Cherkasy kick off?
SK Poltava vs LNZ Cherkasy kicked off at 13:30 on Friday 21 November 2025 at Zirka Stadium.
What was the final score in SK Poltava vs LNZ Cherkasy?
SK Poltava 0 - 2 LNZ Cherkasy.
Where is SK Poltava vs LNZ Cherkasy being played?
The match is being played at Zirka Stadium.
What competition is SK Poltava vs LNZ Cherkasy part of?
SK Poltava vs LNZ Cherkasy is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win SK Poltava vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our statistical model gives SK Poltava a 16% chance of winning, LNZ Cherkasy a 63% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making LNZ Cherkasy the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Poltava vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both SK Poltava and LNZ Cherkasy will score (BTTS).
Will SK Poltava vs LNZ Cherkasy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Poltava and LNZ Cherkasy?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SK Poltava and LNZ Cherkasy in?
SK Poltava (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SK Poltava's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against LNZ Cherkasy's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.83. Flip it around — LNZ Cherkasy's attack (1.08x) against SK Poltava's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.92.
These ratings are built from 12/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.5%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
LNZ Cherkasy Win
16%
6.44
21%
4.67
63%
1.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.8%
Away win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
SK Poltava xG
Total xG
2.75
1.92
LNZ Cherkasy xG
6.44
16%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
1.59
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
15%
6.83
44%
2.29
Win to Nil
2%
44.04
27%
3.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 12.3 | 11.8 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Poltava vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are SK Poltava and LNZ Cherkasy expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for SK Poltava and 1.92 for LNZ Cherkasy, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Poltava vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 12 outings, SK Poltava have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 1W 3D 8L record — L-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for SK Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
LNZ Cherkasy's form line: 7W 2D 3L from 12 games, 1.92 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, LNZ Cherkasy are the form team by 1.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SK Poltava.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SK Poltava have posted 0.80 PPG from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L).
On the road, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 away games — 2.40 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.92 PPG overall record — LNZ Cherkasy travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, LNZ Cherkasy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SK Poltava are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; LNZ Cherkasy are on 1.00 scored and 0.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SK Poltava have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; LNZ Cherkasy in 17%.
Defensively: LNZ Cherkasy in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Poltava
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Poltava and LNZ Cherkasy in coming into this match?
SK Poltava have gone 1W 3D 8L in their last 12 games (0.50 PPG), while LNZ Cherkasy have gone 7W 2D 3L in their last 12 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Poltava at home or LNZ Cherkasy away?
LNZ Cherkasy's away record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Poltava at home: 0.80 PPG; LNZ Cherkasy away: 2.40 PPG.
Have SK Poltava or LNZ Cherkasy been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, LNZ Cherkasy in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SK Poltava
0
Draws
2
LNZ Cherkasy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Poltava and LNZ Cherkasy?
From 2 meetings on record, SK Poltava have won 0, LNZ Cherkasy have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SK Poltava and LNZ Cherkasy last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when LNZ Cherkasy 2-0 SK Poltava.
Who has won more matches between SK Poltava and LNZ Cherkasy?
LNZ Cherkasy have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SK Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Poltava 60%, LNZ Cherkasy 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (SK Poltava) and 40% (LNZ Cherkasy).
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Poltava home games / LNZ Cherkasy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Poltava play LNZ Cherkasy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of SK Poltava's recent matches and 40% of LNZ Cherkasy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SK Poltava vs LNZ Cherkasy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of SK Poltava's recent games and 40% of LNZ Cherkasy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SK Poltava and LNZ Cherkasy tend to score early?
SK Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, LNZ Cherkasy in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
LNZ Cherkasy cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over SK Poltava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
LNZ Cherkasy beat SK Poltava 0-2 at Zirka Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Poltava 0.83 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.92 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. SK Poltava fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Poltava attack 0.92 / defence 1.36 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.08 / defence 0.79, drawn from 12/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Poltava 16% | Draw 21% | LNZ Cherkasy 63%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Poltava 67%, LNZ Cherkasy 17%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Poltava's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, LNZ Cherkasy arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SK Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.