Shakhtar Donetsk 0-0 Polessya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Polessya at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shakhtar Donetsk vs Polessya fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shakhtar Donetsk and Polessya meet at Arena Lviv in Premier League, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Friday 24 November 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Shakhtar Donetsk's overall Premier League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shakhtar Donetsk's home record at Arena Lviv: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Premier League appearances (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Lviv.
Polessya (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Polessya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Polessya's away record: 5W 1D 2L from 8 road trips in Premier League this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 8 games (62%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 2.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Shakhtar Donetsk half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games).
Polessya half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shakhtar Donetsk 64% versus Polessya 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shakhtar Donetsk 64% | Polessya 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shakhtar Donetsk 1.03 xG and Polessya 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.200 / defence 1.054 | Polessya attack 0.990 / defence 0.771. League average goals — home 1.112 / away 1.232. Polessya's defence strength of 0.771 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 42 Shakhtar Donetsk games / 14 Polessya games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 29% | Draw 29% | Polessya 42%. Fair-value odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | Polessya 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Polessya at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Polessya if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Shakhtar Donetsk 40% | Polessya 25% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Polessya | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Friday 24 Nov 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 29% | Draw 29% | Polessya 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Shakhtar Donetsk 1.03 / Polessya 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.200 / def 1.054 | Polessya attack 0.990 / def 0.771 | league avg home 1.112 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Polessya (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Polessya xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shakhtar Donetsk vs Polessya kick off?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Polessya kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 24 November 2023 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Polessya?
Shakhtar Donetsk 0 - 0 Polessya.
Where is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Polessya being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Polessya part of?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Polessya is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Shakhtar Donetsk vs Polessya?
Our statistical model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 29% chance of winning, Polessya a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Polessya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Polessya?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Shakhtar Donetsk and Polessya will score (BTTS).
Will Shakhtar Donetsk vs Polessya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Polessya?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Polessya in?
Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Polessya (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Shakhtar Donetsk's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Polessya's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. Flip it around — Polessya's attack (0.99x) against Shakhtar Donetsk's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 42/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Polessya Win
29%
3.43
29%
3.45
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Total xG
2.31
1.29
Polessya xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
8%
12.40
15%
6.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 12.7 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Polessya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Shakhtar Donetsk and Polessya expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 1.29 for Polessya, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Polessya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 14 outings, Shakhtar Donetsk have picked up 1.93 PPG on a 8W 3D 3L record — D-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Shakhtar Donetsk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Polessya's form line: 9W 2D 3L from 14 games, 2.07 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Polessya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.93 PPG for Shakhtar Donetsk against 2.07 for Polessya. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Shakhtar Donetsk have posted 2.00 PPG from 6 outings (4W 0D 2L).
On the road, Polessya have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 away games — 2.17 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shakhtar Donetsk are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Polessya are on 1.57 scored and 0.71 conceded. Shakhtar Donetsk's scoring rate against Polessya's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Shakhtar Donetsk have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Polessya in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
Polessya
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Polessya in coming into this match?
Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 8W 3D 3L in their last 14 games (1.93 PPG), while Polessya have gone 9W 2D 3L in their last 14 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shakhtar Donetsk at home or Polessya away?
Polessya's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shakhtar Donetsk at home: 2.00 PPG; Polessya away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Shakhtar Donetsk or Polessya been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Polessya in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 20 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Polessya — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Shakhtar Donetsk
2
Draws
3
Polessya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Polessya?
From 6 meetings on record, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 1, Polessya have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shakhtar Donetsk and Polessya last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2026, when Shakhtar Donetsk 1-0 Polessya.
Who has won more matches between Shakhtar Donetsk and Polessya?
Polessya have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Polessya see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 50% (Shakhtar Donetsk) and 17% (Polessya) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Shakhtar Donetsk and 50% for Polessya. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shakhtar Donetsk keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Polessya in 67%; Polessya in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shakhtar Donetsk home games / Polessya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shakhtar Donetsk play Polessya?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent matches and 17% of Polessya's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Polessya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Shakhtar Donetsk's matches and 50% of Polessya's.
Do Shakhtar Donetsk and Polessya tend to score early?
Shakhtar Donetsk have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Polessya in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Shakhtar Donetsk's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk and Polessya finished level at 0-0 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shakhtar Donetsk 1.03 xG and Polessya 1.29 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Shakhtar Donetsk fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Polessya landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.20 / defence 1.05 against Polessya attack 0.99 / defence 0.77, drawn from 42/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shakhtar Donetsk 29% | Draw 29% | Polessya 42%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shakhtar Donetsk 64%, Polessya 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Polessya's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shakhtar Donetsk 1.93 PPG, Polessya 2.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Polessya (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.