Shakhtar Donetsk 2-0 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shakhtar Donetsk at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Kharkiv make the trip to NSK Olimpijs'kyj to face Shakhtar Donetsk in Premier League, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Friday 13 August 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shakhtar Donetsk have collected 2.00 PPG across 3 Premier League outings this season: 2W 0D 1L. Last five: W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Shakhtar Donetsk have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Kharkiv's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W L W. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 1.33. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Kharkiv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Shakhtar Donetsk, 2.00 for FC Kharkiv — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Shakhtar Donetsk have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, FC Kharkiv in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Shakhtar Donetsk — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games.
FC Kharkiv — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shakhtar Donetsk 67% and FC Kharkiv 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Shakhtar Donetsk 100% | FC Kharkiv 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shakhtar Donetsk 1.29 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.021 / defence 1.271 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.696 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.125 / away 1.271. Data: 3 Shakhtar Donetsk games / 3 FC Kharkiv games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 40% | Draw 27% | FC Kharkiv 32%. Fair-value odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | FC Kharkiv 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shakhtar Donetsk are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shakhtar Donetsk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Shakhtar Donetsk 67% | FC Kharkiv 67% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: NSK Olimpijs'kyj • Kick-off: Friday 13 Aug 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 40% | Draw 27% | FC Kharkiv 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Shakhtar Donetsk 1.29 / FC Kharkiv 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.021 / def 1.271 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.696 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.125 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Expected Goals
1.12
FC Kharkiv xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 13 August 2021 at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
What was the final score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv?
Shakhtar Donetsk 2 - 0 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
What competition is Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 40% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Kharkiv?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Kharkiv in?
Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Shakhtar Donetsk's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against FC Kharkiv's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — FC Kharkiv's attack (0.70x) against Shakhtar Donetsk's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
40%
2.49
27%
3.64
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Total xG
2.41
1.12
FC Kharkiv xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
13%
7.66
9%
11.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.1 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.0 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 1.12 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shakhtar Donetsk come into this having played 3 games, going 2W 0D 1L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Kharkiv sit at 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L), a run that reads W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for Shakhtar Donetsk against 2.00 for FC Kharkiv. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shakhtar Donetsk are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 1.67 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shakhtar Donetsk have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; FC Kharkiv in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shakhtar Donetsk
Early Season
FC Kharkiv
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
Have Shakhtar Donetsk or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shakhtar Donetsk won 0-7 on 5 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against FC Kharkiv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Shakhtar Donetsk
2
Draws
0
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Kharkiv?
From 7 meetings on record, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 5, FC Kharkiv have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Shakhtar Donetsk 1-0 FC Kharkiv.
Who has won more matches between Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Kharkiv?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Shakhtar Donetsk, 67% for FC Kharkiv — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Shakhtar Donetsk and 67% for FC Kharkiv. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shakhtar Donetsk keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FC Kharkiv in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shakhtar Donetsk home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shakhtar Donetsk play FC Kharkiv?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Shakhtar Donetsk's games and 67% of FC Kharkiv's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Shakhtar Donetsk's matches and 67% of FC Kharkiv's.
Do Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Shakhtar Donetsk have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shakhtar Donetsk cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC Kharkiv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk beat FC Kharkiv 2-0 at NSK Olimpijs'kyj, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shakhtar Donetsk 1.29 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.12 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC Kharkiv landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.02 / defence 1.27 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.70 / defence 1.12, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shakhtar Donetsk 40% | Draw 27% | FC Kharkiv 32%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 83% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shakhtar Donetsk 100%, FC Kharkiv 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shakhtar Donetsk 2.00 PPG, FC Kharkiv 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shakhtar Donetsk win broke the near-deadlock. Shakhtar Donetsk conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. FC Kharkiv managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.