Shakhtar Donetsk 2-1 Chornomorets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Shakhtar Donetsk take on Chornomorets.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Chornomorets travel to Arena L'viv to take on Shakhtar Donetsk. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 September 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shakhtar Donetsk stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Shakhtar Donetsk have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shakhtar Donetsk have posted 8W 1D 1L at Arena L'viv — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena L'viv.
Chornomorets — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Chornomorets have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Chornomorets have posted 1W 3D 5L from 9 away outings — 0.67 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Shakhtar Donetsk are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 1.80 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Shakhtar Donetsk, 0 for Chornomorets and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 3–0 with Shakhtar Donetsk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Shakhtar Donetsk trading profile (21 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
Chornomorets trading profile (21 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shakhtar Donetsk 43% versus Chornomorets 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shakhtar Donetsk 52% | Chornomorets 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shakhtar Donetsk 0.91 xG and Chornomorets 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 0.918 / defence 0.764 | Chornomorets attack 0.832 / defence 0.845. League average goals — home 1.177 / away 1.180. Shakhtar Donetsk's defence rating of 0.764 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 21 Shakhtar Donetsk games / 21 Chornomorets games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 35% | Draw 39% | Chornomorets 26%. Fair-value odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 2.86 | Draw 2.56 | Chornomorets 3.85. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.66. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.66 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Chornomorets's lower xG of 0.75 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 26% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.66 combined xG gives a 23% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Shakhtar Donetsk 50% | Chornomorets 56%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (21 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Chornomorets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Arena L'viv • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 35% | Draw 39% | Chornomorets 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 34% | xG Shakhtar Donetsk 0.91 / Chornomorets 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 0.918 / def 0.764 | Chornomorets attack 0.832 / def 0.845 | league avg home 1.177 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Chornomorets xG
34%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shakhtar Donetsk vs Chornomorets kick off?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Chornomorets kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at Arena L'viv.
What was the final score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Chornomorets?
Shakhtar Donetsk 2 - 1 Chornomorets.
Where is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Chornomorets being played?
The match is being played at Arena L'viv.
What competition is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Chornomorets part of?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Chornomorets is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Shakhtar Donetsk vs Chornomorets?
Our statistical model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 35% chance of winning, Chornomorets a 26% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Chornomorets?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Shakhtar Donetsk and Chornomorets will score (BTTS).
Will Shakhtar Donetsk vs Chornomorets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Chornomorets?
Record (1 meetings): Shakhtar Donetsk 1W | Draws 0 | Chornomorets 0W.
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Chornomorets in?
Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Chornomorets (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Shakhtar Donetsk's attack at 0.92x the league average against Chornomorets's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chornomorets's attack versus Shakhtar Donetsk's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (21/21 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.6%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.85
39%
2.56
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Total xG
1.66
0.75
Chornomorets xG
2.85
35%
Home win
2.56
39%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.95
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
17%
6.05
10%
9.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.9 | 14.2 | 5.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 13.0 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.9 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Chornomorets?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.6%.
How many goals are Shakhtar Donetsk and Chornomorets expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0.75 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 1.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Chornomorets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shakhtar Donetsk come into this having played 21 games, going 17W 3D 1L for 2.57 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Chornomorets sit at 0.76 PPG from 21 outings (3W 7D 11L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Chornomorets, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Shakhtar Donetsk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.81 PPG clear of Chornomorets — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Shakhtar Donetsk's home form reads 8W 1D 0L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Chornomorets have taken 0.67 points per game from 9 outings (1W 3D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shakhtar Donetsk are averaging 2.43 goals scored and 0.48 conceded per game recently; Chornomorets are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shakhtar Donetsk
Early Season
Chornomorets
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Chornomorets in coming into this match?
Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 17W 3D 1L in their last 21 games (2.57 PPG), while Chornomorets have gone 3W 7D 11L in their last 21 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shakhtar Donetsk at home or Chornomorets away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's home record (2.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shakhtar Donetsk at home: 2.78 PPG; Chornomorets away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Shakhtar Donetsk or Chornomorets been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their recent games, Chornomorets in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shakhtar Donetsk and Chornomorets runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shakhtar Donetsk have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Aug 2021, when Shakhtar Donetsk won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shakhtar Donetsk's record when hosting Chornomorets specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
6
Shakhtar Donetsk
1
Draws
0
Chornomorets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Chornomorets?
From 7 meetings on record, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 6, Chornomorets have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shakhtar Donetsk and Chornomorets last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Chornomorets 0-3 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Who has won more matches between Shakhtar Donetsk and Chornomorets?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shakhtar Donetsk see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shakhtar Donetsk 44%, Chornomorets 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 44% for Shakhtar Donetsk and 78% for Chornomorets. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shakhtar Donetsk keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Chornomorets in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shakhtar Donetsk home games / Chornomorets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shakhtar Donetsk play Chornomorets?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent matches and 56% of Chornomorets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Chornomorets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Shakhtar Donetsk's matches and 78% of Chornomorets's.
Do Shakhtar Donetsk and Chornomorets tend to score early?
Shakhtar Donetsk have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Chornomorets in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shakhtar Donetsk edge out Chornomorets 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk beat Chornomorets 2-1 at Arena L'viv, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shakhtar Donetsk 0.91 xG and Chornomorets 0.75 xG, a combined 1.66. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Shakhtar Donetsk beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shakhtar Donetsk attack 0.92 / defence 0.76 against Chornomorets attack 0.83 / defence 0.84, drawn from 21/21 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shakhtar Donetsk 35% | Draw 39% | Chornomorets 26%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Shakhtar Donetsk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shakhtar Donetsk 52%, Chornomorets 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (21 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.
Chornomorets's trading profile (21 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.57 PPG against 0.76. Form held, and they took the win. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.