Ruh Lviv 2-1 Veres Rivne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ruh Lviv at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ruh Lviv vs Veres Rivne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Veres Rivne travel to Arena L'viv to take on Ruh Lviv. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 August 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Ruh Lviv have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 outings — a 0.00 PPG return. Last five: L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Ruh Lviv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Veres Rivne stand at 0W 1D 1L from 2 Premier League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Veres Rivne have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Veres Rivne's 0.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Ruh Lviv's 0.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.47 xG and Veres Rivne 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.964 / defence 1.150 | Veres Rivne attack 0.682 / defence 1.510. League average goals — home 1.008 / away 1.329. Veres Rivne bring a strong defensive rating of 1.510 — this is suppressing Ruh Lviv's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Ruh Lviv games / 2 Veres Rivne games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 47% | Draw 26% | Veres Rivne 27%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Veres Rivne 3.70. Ruh Lviv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ruh Lviv as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Veres Rivne (0.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Veres Rivne | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Arena L'viv • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 47% | Draw 26% | Veres Rivne 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Ruh Lviv 1.47 / Veres Rivne 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 0.964 / def 1.150 | Veres Rivne attack 0.682 / def 1.510 | league avg home 1.008 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Veres Rivne xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Veres Rivne kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Veres Rivne kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 7 August 2021 at Arena L'viv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Veres Rivne?
Ruh Lviv 2 - 1 Veres Rivne.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Veres Rivne being played?
The match is being played at Arena L'viv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Veres Rivne part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Veres Rivne is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Veres Rivne?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 47% chance of winning, Veres Rivne a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Veres Rivne?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Veres Rivne will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Veres Rivne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Veres Rivne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ruh Lviv and Veres Rivne in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L. Veres Rivne (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ruh Lviv's attack rating (0.96) and Veres Rivne's defence rating (1.51), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Veres Rivne's attack versus Ruh Lviv's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
47%
2.13
26%
3.82
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.51
1.04
Veres Rivne xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
17%
6.04
6%
16.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.4 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Veres Rivne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Veres Rivne expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 1.04 for Veres Rivne, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Veres Rivne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 2 outings, Ruh Lviv have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 2L record — L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Veres Rivne's form line: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games, 0.50 PPG, last five D-L. It's still early in the season for Veres Rivne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Veres Rivne are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ruh Lviv.
The Goals Picture
Ruh Lviv are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Veres Rivne are on 0.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Veres Rivne in 0%.
Defensively: Veres Rivne in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Early Season
Veres Rivne
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and Veres Rivne in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Veres Rivne have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
Have Ruh Lviv or Veres Rivne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Veres Rivne in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ruh Lviv and Veres Rivne runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2023, when Ruh Lviv won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ruh Lviv's record when hosting Veres Rivne specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ruh Lviv
4
Draws
2
Veres Rivne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Veres Rivne?
From 10 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 4, Veres Rivne have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Veres Rivne last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Ruh Lviv 0-0 Veres Rivne.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and Veres Rivne?
Ruh Lviv have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Veres Rivne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play Veres Rivne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 0% of Veres Rivne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ruh Lviv vs Veres Rivne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 50% of Veres Rivne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Veres Rivne tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Veres Rivne in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ruh Lviv edge out Veres Rivne 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruh Lviv beat Veres Rivne 2-1 at Arena L'viv, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.47 xG and Veres Rivne 1.04 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against Veres Rivne attack 0.68 / defence 1.51, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 47% | Draw 26% | Veres Rivne 27%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 50%, Veres Rivne 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Veres Rivne arrived the stronger side — 0.50 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Ruh Lviv winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ruh Lviv scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Veres Rivne scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.