Polessya 1-1 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kryvbas KR at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Polessya face Kryvbas KR.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Kryvbas KR travel to Tsentralnyi Stadion to take on Polessya in Premier League (matchday 13). The game is scheduled for Monday 6 November 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Polessya stand at 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Polessya have posted 3W 0D 1L from their last 4 home games — 2.25 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Kryvbas KR — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Kryvbas KR's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Polessya 2.20 PPG, Kryvbas KR 2.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Polessya in-play tendencies (last 12 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Kryvbas KR in-play tendencies (last 12 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Polessya 33% versus Kryvbas KR 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Polessya 50% | Kryvbas KR 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Polessya 1.03 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Polessya attack 1.085 / defence 1.043 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.320 / defence 0.852. League average goals — home 1.119 / away 1.185. Kryvbas KR have an above-average attack rating of 1.320, which lifts their away xG to 1.63. Data: built from Polessya's last 12 games and Kryvbas KR's last 42.
Result probabilities: Polessya 23% | Draw 27% | Kryvbas KR 50%. Fair-value odds: Polessya 4.33 | Draw 3.77 | Kryvbas KR 1.99. Kryvbas KR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kryvbas KR as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Polessya 50% (last 4 home games) | Kryvbas KR 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Polessya vs Kryvbas KR | Competition: Premier League, matchday 13 | Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 6 November 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Polessya 23% | Draw 27% | Kryvbas KR 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Polessya 1.03 / Kryvbas KR 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Polessya attack 1.085 / def 1.043 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.320 / def 0.852 | league avg home 1.119 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Polessya xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Kryvbas KR xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Polessya vs Kryvbas KR FAQs
What time does Polessya vs Kryvbas KR kick off?
Polessya vs Kryvbas KR kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Monday 6 November 2023 at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What was the final score in Polessya vs Kryvbas KR?
Polessya 1 - 1 Kryvbas KR.
Where is Polessya vs Kryvbas KR being played?
The match is being played at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What competition is Polessya vs Kryvbas KR part of?
Polessya vs Kryvbas KR is a Premier League fixture (matchday 13) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Polessya vs Kryvbas KR?
Our statistical model gives Polessya a 23% chance of winning, Kryvbas KR a 50% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Polessya vs Kryvbas KR?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Polessya and Kryvbas KR will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Polessya vs Kryvbas KR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Polessya's attack rating (1.08) and Kryvbas KR's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kryvbas KR's attack versus Polessya's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Polessya's last 12 games and Kryvbas KR's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.8%), 1-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
23%
4.33
27%
3.77
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Polessya xG
Total xG
2.67
1.63
Kryvbas KR xG
4.33
23%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
20%
5.11
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
5%
22.14
18%
5.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 11.4 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Polessya vs Kryvbas KR Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Polessya vs Kryvbas KR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Polessya and Kryvbas KR expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Polessya and 1.63 for Kryvbas KR, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Polessya vs Kryvbas KR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Polessya come into this having played 12 games, going 8W 1D 3L for 2.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, Kryvbas KR sit at 2.17 PPG from 12 outings (8W 2D 2L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Polessya on 2.08 PPG, Kryvbas KR on 2.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Polessya's home form reads 3W 0D 1L across their last 4 home games, a 2.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Kryvbas KR have taken 2.50 points per game from their last 4 away games (3W 1D 0L).
The Goals Picture
Polessya are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Kryvbas KR are on 2.08 scored and 0.92 conceded. Kryvbas KR's attacking output running into Polessya's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Kryvbas KR in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Polessya
Blended
Kryvbas KR
Blended
Polessya (Home) vs Kryvbas KR (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Polessya
Blended
Kryvbas KR
Blended
❓ Polessya vs Kryvbas KR Form FAQs
What form are Polessya and Kryvbas KR in coming into this match?
Polessya have gone 8W 1D 3L in their last 12 games (2.08 PPG), while Kryvbas KR have gone 8W 2D 2L in their last 12 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Polessya at home or Kryvbas KR away?
Kryvbas KR's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Polessya at home: 2.25 PPG; Kryvbas KR away: 2.50 PPG.
Have Polessya or Kryvbas KR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Kryvbas KR in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 18 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Polessya have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Polessya's record when hosting Kryvbas KR specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Polessya
2
Draws
1
Kryvbas KR
Recent Meetings
❓ Polessya vs Kryvbas KR H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and Kryvbas KR?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Polessya have won 4, Kryvbas KR have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Polessya and Kryvbas KR last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 September 2026: Polessya 1-0 Kryvbas KR.
Who has won more matches between Polessya and Kryvbas KR?
Polessya have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Polessya see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Polessya 50%, Kryvbas KR 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Polessya and 75% for Kryvbas KR. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kryvbas KR in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Polessya home games / Kryvbas KR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Polessya vs Kryvbas KR Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Polessya and Kryvbas KR matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Polessya's recent matches and 50% of Kryvbas KR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Polessya and Kryvbas KR matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Polessya's matches and 75% of Kryvbas KR's.
Do Polessya and Kryvbas KR matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Polessya's recent matches and 75% of Kryvbas KR's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Polessya and Kryvbas KR share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Polessya and Kryvbas KR finished level at 1-1 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Polessya 1.03 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.63 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Polessya attack 1.08 / defence 1.04 against Kryvbas KR attack 1.32 / defence 0.85, drawn from 12/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Polessya 23% | Draw 27% | Kryvbas KR 50%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Polessya 50%, Kryvbas KR 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Polessya's trading profile (12 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (12 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Polessya 2.08 PPG, Kryvbas KR 2.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.